Wyndham Championship Breakdown and Picks on DraftKings
Before we get into the heat of the FedEx Cup playoffs, the Wyndham Championship gives us one more look at a weaker field. It’s no surprise that most of the biggest stars won’t be participating, since they would like a break before the home stretch that concludes with the Ryder Cup. However, there are still some people making a run to be those exclusive captain’s picks for the battle between USA and Europe.
The analysis for this is pretty straight forward. Here’s what we are looking at in terms of the tournament and the course.
- Sedgefield Country Club hosts the tournament. They have hosted the event since 2008 and did so in the years before 1977.
- A score between -14 and -21 has won since 2008.
- There are only two par 5s on this par-70 track. But the par 5s are 531 and 522 yards. Both very reachable in two for any player. Therefore, prioritizing length is a mistake
As for picks, the one guy you should use without question is Peter Hanson. He’s incredibly mispriced on DraftKings. Since he’s the only one, he’s an absolute must play in terms of getting towards the top guys. He’s $5,300.
After that, it’s pretty much play at your own risk.
However, I’m going to play Kevin Tway, who is only $3,400. Why? Two reasons.
One, making the cut is important, but that involves getting to the top players. With such a weak field, it’s even more crucial to be able to get to the top. Also, DraftKings has increased the top players’ salaries some due to people usually overloading with this strategy (I’m assuming). Still, with the way the scoring works, it’s still best to do this.
The second reason is that Tway is a somewhat rising young player. Most guys with odds this low are older players well out of their prime, amateurs who are local qualifiers or guys who are fighting for their lives to keep their PGA card. Tway is a little bit of an exception in this case. Since the Zurich Classic in Late April, he’s made five of his 10 cuts, and he did make it at the U.S. Open. When he did miss the cut, he barely missed it every time. I know this isn’t great evidence that he’s a good play, but under the circumstances, he is the best option to get you to the top guys while still having a legitimate chance at making the cut.
After this, we have an average of $10,325 remaining. There are two slightly good value plays near the top in Charles Howell III $9,000 and Nick Watney $9,100. I’m taking Howell because his variance is much lower, has made significantly more cuts and is playing better golf as of late. After loading in Brandt Snedeker and Webb Simpson, Ernie Els fills up all but $100 of the entire salary. Snedeker is the favorite, Simpson is the second-favorite (and a slightly good salary as a bonus) and Els is playing outstanding golf as of late.
(See our full breakdown of odds vs. salary here)View all posts by Nick Juskewycz