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Three Bold Predictions for NFL Week 6

The hardest decisions you have to make in Daily Fantasy NFL is not who to play, but who not to play. There are a lot of red herrings, guys who have signals that point to success any given week, who end up being bad plays or duds. Having a large amount of exposure to any one player can completely ruin or make your week, so it’s important you can separate the great plays from the “seemingly great” plays. Here are three bold predictions for NFL Week 6 to help you do just that.

Prediction 1: Mohamed Sanu will have a poor game

It’s been well publicized that A.J. Green is almost certainly going to be out next week with a toe injury, and that means Mohamed Sanu is going to be the number one WR for the Bengals in a soft matchup at home against the Panthers. Without Green, QB Andy Dalton is going to have less options to throw to and therefore should throw to Sanu more.

I agree with all that. The problem is the fact that Green is not in the lineup is the only thing Sanu has going for him. If Green was playing, would anyone be even thinking of Sanu? I wouldn’t. We have a running offense as huge favorites at home. We’ve seen this before, against the Falcons in Week 2 where Green practically didn’t play after leaving in the first quarter. In this game, the Bengals ran the ball 45 times, while only passing it 24 times (albeit, one of those passes was from Sanu to Andy Dalton 🙂 ).

If it wasn’t for a 76 yard TD Sanu where he went 70 of those yards untouched, Sanu’s line would’ve been 2 catches, 8 yards. Sanu’s stats this year look good, but his YPC over the past two years hasn’t topped 10, nor has his targets per game ever topped 5, something he has barely accomplished this year with just over 6. Sanu’s stats have been incredibly padded by this one long TD that make him look a lot better than he is. But Sanu had never previously had longer than a 35 yard catch.

Sanu’s playing time isn’t increasing either. He already plays nearly 100% of snaps. I’m not going to say Sanu is a bad play, but I don’t think he’s worth a GPP play with the kind of usage he is going to see.

Prediction 2: Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett Will Have A Better Game Than Brandon Marshall

Brandon Marshall is getting a lot of hype this week as he has been so banged up this season his stats have taken a hit and so has his salary. But the matchup with the Falcons doesn’t bode well for Marshall, even though the Falcons defense is really bad.

The problem is that the Falcons do have one really good defender, cornerback Desmond Trufant, who is arguably a top 3 corner in the league. The Falcons don’t really have a base defense, but it looks like this year they aren’t playing a lot of man to man. Trufant normally takes the right side of the offensive field. This is exactly the side of the field that Marshall lines up on, so as the WR1 and the RWR on the team, we should see Trufant almost exclusively take on Marshall. The only guy who consistently lines up on the left side of the field is Martellus Bennett. Avoiding Trufant should mean Bennett has a field day. And for such a reasonable price on FanDuel, I think he’s in must play territory.

Prediction 3: Branden Oliver Will Be Better Than Andre Williams

Objectively, it really feels like Williams will be the better play. He’s almost guaranteed to get 80%+ snaps at RB, he’s on a team with a high point projection, and his price is right. Oliver’s workload is unclear if Donald Brown plays, and he’s a more unproven back with a much worse offensive line.

With that said, I like Oliver better for a few reasons. First, the Chargers are 7 point favorites, while the Giants are 2.5 point dogs, and we know that teams that are winning will take more conservative offensive approaches, mostly running the ball more. The matchup is also much more favorable for the Chargers run game than the Giants. The Eagles are a notoriously bad pass defense, but not as bad against the run, while the Raiders are completely awful against the run, but not as bad against the pass. If Oliver gets the workload, he should be crazy good next week.

 

 

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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