NBA Picks 2/18
After a long break from DFS NBA for the All-Star break, we finally have games again starting today with a large 10 game slate. Here are my picks for the day.
MCW has a lot going for him against Cleveland. First off, the 76ers are at home, which is always beneficial for a players fantasy output. Philadelphia is also on a streak of getting crushed by their opponents, lowering their teams fantasy stats and causing MCW’s price to creep downward, but against a bad Cleveland team at home, Philly is actually favored. Cleveland also gives up top 3 points to PGs. The previous 3 matchups against Cleveland MCW’s stats, while not completely stellar, were solid. In the first game of the year, MCW only had a line of 11/9/6/1/0, however in the 2nd matchup he put up a line of 21/7/13/2/2, but in a double overtime game. His last game was the most encouraging, where MCW scored 33 points, grabbed 6 rebounds, and dished 5 assists. His USG% in that game was also 35.2%, 9.2% higher than his season average. A small factor in his favor is that Evan Turner had very high USG% in their 3 matchups, but all against Earl Clark, and not Luol Deng, who is a much better defender. So expect the 76ers to rely on MCW more on offense.
The only thing that scares me about MCW is his early season stats are looking more like a hot streak than what we should expect, and he has had spotty fantasy production ever since new years. Still, with so much in his favor he’s a very strong start.
Because of the ways DFS websites pricing algorithms work, Chris Paul’s long injury hiatus has caused his price to move way down, from over 10k to 8.2k on Fanduel. That price would make him a must start on its own, but he also draws a good matchup against the Spurs at home, where he’ll be defended by Tony Parker if his plays, the worst defender on the team. Parker is questionable though and that will hurt Paul’s production if he doesn’t play. But Paul broke 50 fantasy points in the one previous matchup he played in, which really puts icing on the cake. Paul’s injury is not a concern so he’s really the best start of the day by a mile.
Drummond is one of the hottest players in DFS right now as his production continues to increase in his 2nd season in the league. Charlotte gives up a lot of points to Centers which bodes well for Drummond. But what I’m most encouraged by is his production in their previous matchup. Remarkably, Drummond had 10 offensive rebounds, 5 above his season average, as well as 5 blocks. Charlotte shot 52.4% from the field in that game, which probably pushed Drummond defensive rebounding totals down, but don’t expect a repeat performance. Drummond’s best games have come against undersized front courts such as Philadelphia, New Orleans, Milwaukee, Brooklyn (without Garnett), and Cleveland (without Varejao). Charlotte is one of the most undersized front courts in the league with Josh McRoberts and Al Jefferson. I think we see another remarkable performance on the glass by Drummond.
Ty Lawson is officially out tonight, which likely means Randy Foye will start at PG. I would keep up with the news of Denver’s lineup as it always is in flux, but Foye starting is by far the most likely scenario. Foye owners in Denver’s past two games have gotten their asses handed to them, but that was mostly because Denver was on the bad end of road blowouts. Foye’s production at the point is actually quite good, and even in the two last games he managed to take a lot of shot attempts and even got 10 assists against Indiana. Denver is at home this game against a good Phoenix team, but one that is much worse against PG’s than Minnesota or Indiana. Foye I think is one of the better starts of the day, and you’d be foolish not to use him.
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