NBA Daily Fantasy 3/4 GPP vs. 50/50 & H2H
For tonight’s six games of NBA action, let’s dive into the best plays from a GPP, 50/50 & H2H perspective. I’ll also throw in a few must-plays at the end.
But before that, a lot of people are likely drooling over the fact that Kevin Durant is going against the Philadelphia 76ers and LeBron James just dropped 61 points.
First off, the Thunder are 21-point favorites! Normally when a team is favored by a lot, that’s a good thing. However, this game is all but guaranteed to be a blowout and I don’t think Durant will get a ton of minutes. Yes, I get that OKC lost at home as a 14-point favorite recently to the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the Cavs are significantly better than the 76ers and Westbrook was shaking off the rust.
As for LeBron, I don’t doubt he’ll have a good game tonight. But know these two things, it’s on the road of a back-to-back and Dwyane Wade will be back. Plus, the odds of LeBron doing something like that again, tonight, even under the same circumstances, are very slim.
Fade both players from the simple fact that they will be overplayed and there is much better value out there.
(All Salaries via Draft Kings)
Chris Paul $9,700 – Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick are both still out. The over/under in this game is 219. As long as the game hasn’t been a blowout, Paul is getting his minutes and his numbers. The Clippers are a 4-point favorite.
Anthony Davis $9,200 – A lot of people are going to stay away from Davis since he’s essentially been a dud the last two games. However, Davis’ minutes were very limited at the Clippers because of foul trouble and a blowout. He didn’t have a great game at the Kings, but he missed a lot of shots, didn’t record a defensive stat and had some of his rebounds robbed. I write this off as a perfect storm in the fluke department. Tonight, Davis is against the Lakers, and the Lakers have the worst inside defense and rebounding percentage in the league. Davis destroyed the Lakers in the first meeting with 32 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 6 blocks, 1 steal. In the second, Davis only played 26 minutes in a blowout. The Pelicans are only a 2.5-point underdog.
Tim Duncan $7,300 – This is Duncan’s cheapest salary in a long time. Part of that reduction is because he played limited minutes toward the end of the Spurs’ length road trip (classic Pop). Now he’s playing his normal minutes. The Cavs are an improving group inside, but the Spurs still by far have the advantage. That’s especially true when it’ll come to the matchup between Duncan and Tristan Thompson. If you’re concerned about Duncan’s low output last outing vs. the Cavs, Duncan played 16 minutes on the second of a b2b and had great per 36 numbers. San Antonio is a 7.5-point favorite.
Terrence Jones $5,200 – Even if Dwight Howard plays (GTD), Jones could still go for a big night. He put up 39.5 FPTS last night and finally looked like the Jones of early January. Miami is a bad rebounding team, which is something Jones can thrive in. Shane Battier will defend him and Jones should have the advantage inside. There is some risk here, but if Howard doesn’t suit up, it becomes less risky.
P.J. Tucker $4,300 – The Clippers are a poor defensive team inside (24th and 26th in FPTS allowed to PFs and Cs respectively). However, Channing Frye spends a lot of time on the perimeter and Tucker can pick up a lot of rebounds. With a very high expected number of possessions in this game, Tucker will have a lot of opportunities for a $4,300 salary. He’s inconsistent with his production, but with Chris Paul (best PG defender in the league) on Goran Dragic, I like Tucker to be more involved tonight.
50/50 & Heads Up
Pau Gasol $8,000 – Gasol hasn’t exactly exploded since returning from injury, but he continues to be a solid 40 FPTS guy (went for 48.25 last night). Playing at home vs. a Pelicans team that gives up a lot of points in the paint, there’s no reason to think Gasol won’t have a great game. He’s still the biggest offensive threat on the team and has the highest usage percentage.
DeAndre Jordan $7,200 – I don’t get how Jordan’s salary never increases to around $8,000. He very rarely has a bad game, and when he does, it’s still just under 30 FPTS. At the same time, he’s often getting in the 40s for FPTS and sometimes passing 50. With Frye dragging Blake Griffin away from the basket and Miles Plumlee continuing to decline, Jordan should get a monstrous amount of boards in a fast-paced game.
Serge Ibaka $7,200 – I get that I said to stay away from Durant, but with Kendrick Perkins out, Ibaka’s rebounding has gone up. Plus, with Steven Adams and Hasheem Thabeet not exactly putting up FPTS that make you want to play them as minimum salary guys, Ibaka has been dominating. Against the Bobcats and Grizzlies in his last two games (both tough matchups), he played 27 and 29 minutes respectively because of foul trouble and still eclipsed 30 FPTS. Ibaka is pretty much guaranteed to get you at least 35 FPTS, with the potential to go for 45.
Brian Roberts $4,500 – This one is simple. He’s incredible cheap, he’s going against the Lakers and Austin Rivers is the only other PG on the team. Roberts’ ceiling is 35 FPTS, but he should get you at least 25.
Jordan Hamilton $3,300 – Whether he’s started or not, Hamilton is posting approximately 25 FPTS since being part of the Rockets’ primary rotation. Since he gets stats in just about every category to a certain degree, that’s usually good for a near-minimum salary player who is in the main rotation. Also, with Jeremy Lin as a GTD and Aaron Brooks now in Denver, if Lin doesn’t go, Hamilton gets a bump.
Omer Asik $3,500 (if Howard doesn’t play) – Asik will start if Howard doesn’t play. He’s a great rebounder and the Heat are one of the worst on the glass. Easy play no matter what.
Tyreke Evans $6,000 – Since Evans has moved into the starting five, his production has increased in all areas. He’s easily the best fantasy option after Davis on New Orleans. DraftKings has not updated his salary. Even though everyone will use him, you can’t afford not to get his value.
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