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NBA Breakdown 2/21: Previous Matchups and Injuries

Breaking down all the previous matchups on Friday’s 10 game slate. Draftkings has it’s 100k guaranteed MegaCrossover today that only has a 1000 entrants so far, so we could be seeing a large overlay. If you’re thinking about getting your feet wet in DFS, today would be a good day. I will not be going into trade news, as Sked has covered that here.

New York @ Orlando

Previous Matchup

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201312060NYK.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201312230ORL.html

Matchup Notes:

  • JR Smith did  well in both games, but given his face injury and his production since then he seems like a risky play.
  • Carmelo barely got minutes in both games, but did relatively well in both.
  • Bizarrely, the Knicks elected to start Melo at the SF in both games, despite the fact Glen Davis has very little size at the PF position. You should follow the starting lineup in this game closely, as whoever starts at PF should have a great matchup.
  • Arron Afflalo broke 20 points in both games, going for 26/5/5 in the game at home. His combined USG% was average.
  • Injury Impact

    • Iman Shumpert is out. JR Smith is starting. +JR Smith, +Tim Hardaway Jr.
    • Bargnani and Martin continue to be out.
    • Dallas @ Philadelphia

      Previous Matchup

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201311180DAL.html

      Matchups Notes

      • Dallas started with a small lineup, going with Marion at PF and Nowitzki at Center. They seemed to abandon that idea quickly, but it would seem plausible that they could go to that lineup again.
      • Practically everyone on Dallas did above average. Marion and Calderon has above average USG%.
      • Samuel Dalembert was the best Dallas player, recording 8 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 blocks.
      • Michael Carter Williams did not play, but Tony Wroten did well in his place, contributing 19/3/3 with 5 steals.
      • Injury Impact

        • MCW is sick and is probable for Friday.
        • Philadelphia traded Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes so check the news on their starters.
        • Hollis Thompson has an injured ankle and is probable.
        • Cleveland @ Toronto

          No Previous Matchup

          Injury Impact

          • CJ Miles and Dion Waiters are out. ++ Jarret Jack.
          • Anderson Varejao is still out, +Tyler Zeller, +Tristan Thompson, +Bennet.
          • New Orleans @ Charlotte

            Previous Matchup

            http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201311020NOP.html

            Matchup Notes

            • Somewhat of a blowout. Al Jefferson did not play, Jrue Holiday did play, and Charlotte was on the road.
            • Kemba Walker had a high 32.5% USG, but had a poor game. He has a better matchup this game against Brian Roberts.
            • Anthony Davis performed extremely well with 25/8/4/6/6.
            • Tyreke Evans also did well adding 15/6/7. USG% was average.
            • Injury Impact

              • No previously injured player on either team is expected to return.
              • Atlanta @ Detroit

                Previous Matchups

                http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201311200ATL.html

                http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201311220DET.html

                Matchup Notes

                • Jeff Teague had two very good games, averaging 18 points, 3.5 rebounds, 8 assists, 1.5 steals, and .5 blocks. His USG% was above average, 29%, 3 points above his season average.
                • Al Horford played in both games.
                • Andre Drummond did well in both games.
                • Josh Smith came off the bench in the latter matchup.
                • Injury Impact

                  • Demarre Carroll is a GTD.
                  • Jeff Teague is a GTD. +Shelvin Mack
                  • Gustavo Ayon is out. ++ Brand.
                  • Denver @ Chicago

                    Previous Matchup

                    http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201311210DEN.html

                    Matchup Notes

                    • Early season matchup that featured Derrick Rose and Luol Deng, while Jimmy Butler was injured.
                    • Joakim Noah nearly had a triple double with 11/12/8.
                    • Kenneth Faried performed well with a double double, 12 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal and 2 blocks.
                    • Injury Impact

                      • Lawson probably will not play, and newly acquired Aaron Brooks will get the start. -Foye, +Brooks.
                      • The Nuggets starting lineup continues to be in flux so keep your eye out on news for them.
                      • Taj Gibson has gotten a lot of minutes for Chicago of late and is worth keeping an eye on.
                      • LA Clippers @ Memphis

                        Previous Matchups

                        http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201311180LAC.html

                        http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201312050MEM.html

                        Matchup Notes

                        • Marc Gasol did extremely well in the only game he played in, 23/9/8/2/0. His USG% was through the roof at 32.4.
                        • Zach Randolph added 26/15 in the first matchup, but struggled in the second with only 12/12 with 7 turnovers. His USG% was slightly below average in his game where Gasol played.
                        • Mike Conley did poorly in both games.
                        • Chris Paul nearly had a triple double in one matchup, producing a line of 18/9/11. The second matchup he also performed well with 15/9/5 in only 27 minutes.
                        • Blake Griffin did decently both games, and had a slightly above average USG%.
                        • Deandre Jordan did relatively well in both games, averaging 9 points, 15 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal and 3 blocks.
                        • These teams are actually very similar to the 2013 teams so it’s worth looking at the 11 games they played in the previous year. Marc Gasol performed extremely well overall in those games.
                        • Injury Impact

                          • Tony Allen will return tonight. -Courtney Lee.
                          • JJ Redick is still out.
                          • San Antonio @ Phoenix

                            Previous Matchups

                            http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201312180PHO.html

                            http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201311060SAS.html

                            Matchup Notes

                            • Eric Bledsoe played in both games. Goran Dragic only played in one.
                            • Markieff Morris had one monster game, scoring 23 points and 12 rebounds. Miles Plumlee had a good game in the other matchup, adding 13/13 with 2 steals and blocks.
                            • Goran Dragic did poorly in the one game he played, however Tony Parker was out.
                            • Tim Duncan filled the stat sheet in both games, averaging 17 points, 9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1 steal and 2 blocks.
                            • Manu Ginobli was extremely good in the latter matchup, with 24 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and 2 steals in only 27 minutes. His USG% was through the roof at 36.7. Ginobli reached value in the first game.
                            • Injury Impact

                              • Tony Parker is out. +Joseph, +Mills.
                              • Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan are expected to play.
                              • Manu Ginobli’s minutes will probably still be limited.
                              • Leoandro Barbosa is questionable, but it doesn’t really matter.
                              • Utah @ Portland

                                Previous Matchups

                                http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201312060POR.html

                                http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201312090UTA.html

                                Matchup Notes

                                • The first matchup was a large blowout.
                                • Trey Burke did well in the latter matchup, with a line of 15/6/5/1/1
                                • Damian Lillard did relatively well in both matchups, averaging 19.5 points, 4 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1 steal and .5 blocks.
                                • Thomas Robinson did extremely well in the small time he played, averaging 10.5/6/.5/1/1 in only an average of 15 minutes.
                                • Nicolas Batum played well, averaging 10 points, 7.5 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 steal and .5 blocks. His USG% was quite low, only 12% combined.
                                • Injury Impact

                                  • Aldridge is out. +Robinson, +Wright, +Lopez.
                                  • Batum missed Thursday’s practice with a fever. He may miss tonight’s game. This may cause Portland to start Wright at SF and Robinson at PF. +Wright, +Robinson.
                                  • Derrick Favors is out. +Kanter.
                                  • Boston @ LA Lakers

                                    Previous Matchup

                                    http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201401170BOS.html

                                    Matchup Notes

                                    • Practically everyone on the Lakers did well. Starting lineup is quite similar to what it will be this game.
                                    • Rondo played but in limited minutes and did decently.
                                    • Kelly Olynyk had a monster game with a line of 25/5/7/2/1
                                    • Injury Impact

                                      • Avery Bradley is out, which means Gerald Wallace will start.
                                      • Faverini is also out but that doesn’t mean much.
                                      • Sullinger and Bass will start again, but Kelly Olynyk has been getting a lot of minutes.
                                      • Nick Young and Steve Nash are both out.
                                      • Gasol is starting. -Kaman.
                                      • It is unclear if Jordan Farmar will be on a minutes limit.
                                      • View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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