College Football Daily Fantasy Week 8 Picks – Early Slate
With seven weeks of college football under our belts, FanDuel and DraftKings have priced the players more accurately. Obviously there will still be matchups to consider. Injuries will still play a role into someone being underpriced. But as far as players’ salaries go in general, the sites are doing a better job.
Because of this, there are fewer diamonds in the rough to find and lineups will be tougher to make. Still, it won’t be too difficult, and there are still a lot of options.
But before I dive into the picks, there are heavy storms expected to cause mayhem in Texas. This could really cause issues for the Iowa State at Baylor and Kansas State at Texas games. There have been discussions with the teams about postponing the games or even moving the game times. Given that we are only one day away from kickoff, I think they will try and play the games as scheduled. Randy Peterson of the Des Moines Register (Iowa State beatwriter) has been following this situation closely and had this to say.
Saturday could be one of those games for #cyclones and Baylor that stops periodically because of lightning, I'm hearing.
— Randy Peterson (@RandyPete) October 23, 2015
Some Baylor HC events cancelled, however FB team still planning to attend FriNite pep rally that's been moved inside https://t.co/b9Aq0z6Jdc
— Randy Peterson (@RandyPete) October 23, 2015
It is very dangerous using players in these games. I can’t offer an “odds of this game playing” type of thing since A) I’m not a meteorologist and B) This isn’t nearly as easy to predict as MLB. Here’s what I will say though – If this tweet holds true and let’s say for example Baylor is winning 38-10 in late in the 3rd quarter and have to take a long lightning delay, they could just call the game (the game would still be official). This is obviously less likely in the Kansas State at Texas game given the -4 line in comparison to the Baylor -37 line. Neither game will be able to be postponed to a future date because neither share a bye week. Furthermore, Baylor plays Texas and Kansas State hosts West Virginia on December 5th, which is conference championship week, but the Big 12 plays its regular season that late due to the fact they don’t have a conference championship.
While the spreads have barely moved all week, keep in mind that games must go at least 55 minutes in Vegas for you to win/lose your bet. So, it’s not surprising that the lines have stayed relatively steady. However, the O/U line has gone down from 81 to 78 in the Iowa State at Baylor game and from 56 to 50 in the Kansas State at Texas contest. The weather can obviously cause lower scores, so this makes sense.
Given this information, I am going to put a weather watch for players on these teams. I almost wanted to take off all the quarterbacks and wide receivers since it sounds like rainfall could be really extreme, but I don’t want to leave them off and they have people say “why in the world would you not list the Baylor players?!” However, I very strongly advise checking out the weather situation Saturday morning and you should know these players carry some risk.
FanDuel prices 1st. DraftKings prices 2nd.
(!) – Injury/Starter watch
(#) – Weather Risk
Seth Russell $10,800/$9,400 (#) – So much for West Virginia’s defense being somewhat improved this season. Their defensive effort and scheme last week versus Baylor was a joke. Now Russell gets Iowa State? This is amazing, right? Well, the good news here is that Baylor is at home and projected for 59 points. The bad news is that the line is -37, and that is an enormous line. Russell may only be playing for a half or three quarters. This is what happened when the Bears played at Kansas and Russell only posted 28.44 FPTS, and that included a rushing touchdown. Obviously you must consider Russell in GPPs since this could be a shootout, but if it’s a blowout (as Vegas thinks it will be) he could really hurt you for how much you’re paying.
Greg Ward Jr $10,600/$8,900 – Congrats to everyone who has been using Ward on a weekly basis. Ward not only leads all quarterbacks in rushing with 631 yards at 6.8 per carry, he’s tied for the most rushing touchdowns with 14 at any position! Guess who he’s tied with? Yup, Leonard Fournette. Anyways, Ward has another tasty matchup at winless UCF with
Luke Falk $9,500/$9,200 – Unsurprisingly, Falk has started to thrive in the air-raid offense after a few early bumps in the road. Washington State faces a weak Arizona defense and are projected for 33 points as a seven-point underdog.
Matt Johnson $8,900 (DraftKings) – Another outstanding MAC matchup for Johnson and the Falcon Fast offense. He’s tossed five touchdowns in each of his last two games.
Baker Mayfield $9,400/$8,700 – This is one of the best (maybe best) matchups Mayfield will have all year. Oklahoma is at home, -14.5 and projected for 45 points against Texas Tech. While hitting the 56 FPTS like he did against Tulsa would be tough to repeat, this matchup is fairly similar to that one.
Patrick Mahomes $9,300/$8,300 – On the other side of the field, Mahomes will be going against Oklahoma. Texas Tech is still projected for 31 points despite being an underdog, and Mahomes will likely be throwing it a ton to keep up with the Sooners offense. Mahomes is also completely healthy and provides the dual-threat ability.
Joe Hubener $5,300 (DraftKings) – Definitely a GPP play here. Hubener was benched later in the game against Oklahoma, but he is supposed to start this week at Texas. While Kansas State is only projected for 23 points as a four-point underdog, he runs the ball A TON, and that upside is worth a play in GPPs given his cheap price.
Eric Dungey $5,000 (DraftKings) – GPP here as well and in a very similar situation. Syracuse is a touchdown underdog at home against Pittsburgh, but Dungey runs it a lot as well.
Derrick Henry $8,500/$8,200 – Bama is -15 and projected for 34 points at home, but more importantly, Tennessee is tied for 75th rush yards allowed per carry and 66th in rush yards allowed per game. Henry is a bit pricey, but he does get a massive workload and has the favorable matchup.
Nick Wilson $8,000/$6,700 (!) – Wilson hasn’t played since the Oregon State contest and is questionable for this weekend. If Wilson is able to go, he has a fantastic matchup at home against Washington State (98th in rush yards allowed per carry and per game). Arizona is projected for 41 points with a -7.5 line. If Wilson can’t go, Jared Baker ($7,000/$5,500) should feast on this matchup (went for 247 total yards and three touchdowns last week at Colorado).
Alex Collins $8,000/$7,500 – Remember how a lot of people thought Will Muschamp was supposed to fix the Auburn defense immediately? Bad assumption. Auburn is giving up 5.5 YPC (T115) and 205 YPG (100th). Arkansas is at home, -6 and projected for 29 points.
Shock Linwood $7,900/$6,800 (#) – While I fully recognize the schedule has been incredibly soft and that it’s given Baylor huge leads early on, but the Bears are only throwing it 39.54% of the time, which is 111th in the nation. Linwood is a bit pricey, but they get Iowa State at home. Like I said for Russell, there is a risk factor in that the starters may not be in that long, but if Iowa State can at least keep it within two or three touchdowns heading into the fourth quarter, Lindwood has enormous upside. Iowa State is allowing on the ground 4.9 YPC (T92) and 181.4 YPG (78th). Furthermore, with the heavy rainfall expected, we could see increased rushing attempts as long as the lightning holds off.
Saquon Barkley $7,300/$5,600 – Barkley returned to the Penn State backfield last week and did so in commanding fashion by taking 26 of the 40 rushing attempts for 194 yards. Keep in mind this was on the road against a very good Ohio State defense and that Penn State was trailing most of the game. Now Penn State gets the worst defense in the Big Ten in Maryland? Perfect timing for Barkley.
Taquon Mizzell $6,800/$6,500 – I haven’t been listing Mizzell too much, but that’s clearly been a mistake the more I’ve watched and studied Virginia. Mizzell gets the majority of the carries for the team, but it’s not a huge workload as he’s only carried it 66 of the teams’ 201 attempts. The difference that Mizzell makes is that he leads the team in receptions and is only nine yards short of leading the team in receiving yards. While Virginia is a 17-point underdog at North Carolina, they’re tied for 68th in allowed YPC and 105th in YPG allowed rushing. Plus, with UNCs secondary playing well, Mizzell could get increased looks out of the backfield in the passing game.
Dare Ogunbowale $6,800/$5,200 (!) – Despite that Corey Clement was cleared to play last week, he didn’t actually play. It’s unclear at this moment if he will play this week at Illinois. Given that this game should be more competitive game and that the Badgers have to win this game to have any shot at still winning the Big Ten West, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he plays. However, in case he doesn’t play and with Taiwan Deal still out, Ogunbowale is in line to get another decent workload. Ogunbowale has been running bad in the touchdown department, so if he gets another big share of touches, those touchdowns are due to turn up making him great value.
Wayne Gallman $6,500/$5,800 – Clemson does have a bit of a tricky matchup playing at Miami. Yes, Miami has two losses, but Clemson is only -7, on the road and kicks off in the first wave at noon ET. But even though Clemson should be on upset alert, Miami is T117 allowing 5.6 YPC and 86th allowing 190.2 YPG on the ground.
Samaje Perine $6,300/$5,400 – Finally Perine’s price has declined to something more reasonable. Perine was a stud last year, but with the change in Oklahoma’s offense, there was no way Perine was going to come close to matching last season’s numbers. This price decline comes at a perfect time. Texas Tech is an atrocious T117th in YPC allowed and 122nd in YPG allowed the ground with 255. The best part is Oklahoma is -14.5 and projected for
Elijah Hood $6,000/$5,900 – UNC is -17.5 and projected for 39 points. Virginia is tied for 80th allowing 4.6 YPC. Hood has been on a terror the last three games, and it’s weird his price hasn’t gone up yet.
Justin Jackson $5,400/$5,500 – Northwestern has had two bad matchups in a row, and this matchup isn’t that much easier at Nebraska (T14 YPC allowed, sixth YPG allowed). However, Jackson had gotten anywhere from 20-to-35 carries in Northwestern’s first five games. The last two games have been blowouts. Northwestern is a 7.5-point underdog and only projected for 22 points, but as long as the game is relatively close, Jackson should get 20-plus carries again, and he’s had outstanding games this year when the Wildcats have scored fewer than 22 points.
Chris Carson $5,400 (FanDuel) – Oklahoma State has been splitting time at running back, but they’ve also battled some injuries there as well. While he ususally doesn’t get a huge share, Carson is the primary running back. And guess what? Oklahoma State is at home against Kansas. Okie St is -34 and projected for 47 points with Kansas allowing 5.7 YPC (T121) and 267.8 YPG (123rd).
Raekwon James $4,300 (DraftKings) – James’ workload has been increasing over the last few weeks, and he received 20 touches last week against UMass. Granted Kent State will likely be playing from behind against Bowling Green, $4,300 is a very cheap price for a main running back who also gets a lot of receptions out of the backfield.
Shaquille Powell $5,100/$4,100 – Powell is in a similar situation to Carson in that he is the main running back but doesn’t get a huge share. However, his price has dipped too much. Also, surprisingly, Virginia Tech is allowing 4.7 YPC (T84) and 184.7 YPG (82nd).
Corey Coleman $9,600/$8,600 (#) – I do not advise this in cash, especially considering the weather. I have no idea what West Virginia was thinking in allowing their defense to play one-on-one with Coleman last week. Iowa State should be smarter, but the keyword there is “should.” Either way, you know this already, but Baylor is favored by -37. Yes, Coleman should do well and yes his upside is the best for wide receivers in college football. However, will he go off like last week to take care of this insane salary in a possible blowout? It’s possible he’s not worth the money, but he must be included for GPPs.
Roger Lewis $8,000 (DraftKings) – You know the drill here.
Demarcus Ayers $7,700/$6,200 – While Ward Jr gets a lot of the Houston DFS love, Ayers has been putting up big numbers as well. Winless UCF is 72nd in pass yards allowed.
Tajae Sharpe $7,500/$7,200 – While UMass is a 14.5-point underdog and only projected for 24 points, Toledo does allow the 76th most yards through the air and Sharpe has racked up at least seven catches in every game this season. UMass will also be throwing quite a bit to keep up with Toledo and UMass throws it the second-most in the nation.
Sterling Shepard $7,400/$6,700 – Shepard has been solid the last three games, but he gets the outstanding matchup at home with Texas Tech.
Gabe Marks $7,100/$6,700 – The No. 1 wide receiver on by far the most pass-heavy offense in all of college football (Washington State throws it 73.1% of the time, UMass is next at 64.66%). The Cougars have a dynamite matchup at a weak Arizona defense.
Jakeem Grant $6,900/$6,700 – Granted Grant didn’t have the greatest outing last week, but I swear Grant’s price won’t move on FanDuel. Underpriced.
Aaron Burbridge $6,900/$6,700 – Burbridge’s salary finally went up a little bit, but it’s still not high enough. Plus, Michigan State is favored by 16.5 at home and projected for 39 points with Indiana allowing 321.3 yards through the air (125th).
Tyler Boyd $6,500 (DraftKings) – Boyd’s price has finally declined to something a bit more reasonable and in a proper matchup with a weak Syracuse defense that is 115th in passing yards allowed and 88th in yards per completion allowed per game.
Geronimo Allison $5,300 (DraftKings only) – For some reason FanDuel has jacked his price while DraftKings has stayed put. With Mike Dudek out, Allison is the X wide receiver and go-to guy for Wes Lunt. Wisconsin is a tough matchup though, but with this really cheap price, he’s still a good play.
Allen Lazard $6,100/$5,100 (#) – The No. 1 wide receiver on Iowa State should get a ton of looks as the Cyclones will throw a ton to try and keep up with Baylor. The Bears have a weak pass defense in terms of yards per game allowed (95th) and yards per completion allowed (73rd).
Alex Erickson $6,100/$4,600 – This is somewhat mind boggling but Wisconsin has actually thrown for over 300 yards in each of its last two games, one of which Joel Stave threw the ball 50 times. Erickson has caught at least seven catches in three of his last four games with his one three-catch outing coming in a windy game against a good Iowa defense. Given that the Badgers are facing an average defense from Illinois, Erickson has another solid matchup to get seven-plus catches and could hit amazing value if he just adds a touchdown to those yards.
Calvin Ridley $5,700/$5,200 – I never thought I would list an Alabama wide receiver this year, but Ridley has now established himself as the primary wide receiver with three consecutive solid outings against SEC competition. Now Alabama draws Tennessee with the Volunteers having the 109th pass defense in yards allowed per game and 119th in yards allowed per completion.
River Cracraft $5,700/$5,000 – Way too cheap. Great cash play and better upside than you think. Mike Leach effect here.
Ronnie Moore $5,000 (Cash) Gehrig Dieter $4,900 (GPP) – Moore is the slot wide receiver while Dieter is the second outside wideout. Moore is a safer bet for number of catches and getting the shorter stuff over the middle while Dieter is more of a playmaker. While both are options in both formats, Moore is more suited for cash formats while Dieter is a little bit better for GPPs.
Drew Morgan $5,700/$4,700 – Way too cheap with Keon Hatcher still out, especially against a weak Auburn defense.
Marken Michel $4,700/$4,300 – For as much UMass throws it and will be playing from behind most likely against Toledo, Michel is in prime position for a sneaky good game.
TE is FanDuel only
Rodney Mills $4,000 – Duh
Jordan Leggett $3,800 – Deshaun Watson’s favorite target in the red zone.
Hunter Henry $3,000 – Henry has been underachieving a bit the last few weeks especially having faced Alabama last week. He should bounce back against Auburn.
Mark Andrews $2,000 – Boom or bust here. Oklahoma does get Texas Tech in a matchup that will be similar to Tulsa. Andrews had his biggest game then.View all posts by Nick Juskewycz