College Football Daily Fantasy Week 13 Picks – Friday Slate
It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means we have bonus college football daily fantasy. There will be several games on Friday along with the usual bunch on Saturday. On Saturday, there will be the usual early and late slates. On Friday though, DraftKings will just be having an all day format with the biggest games while FanDuel will split it up into an early and late segment.
I am going to split this article into two sections – early and late. This is for the FanDuel players. DraftKings players, just look at everything as one.
I also want to remind people of two things before we get to the picks:
1. Always check to make sure your guys are playing. This isn’t like the NFL where there are required injury reports with an active/inactive list one hour and 30 minutes before kickoff. Obviously, sometimes there’s nothing you can do. However, even for someone like Connor Cook last week, he did suffer the shoulder injury against Maryland, and he was never a lock to play against Ohio State (not that he was a good play to begin with, but this obviously hurt Aaron Burbridge’s production a lot).
It’s rare that there will be a last-second quarterback change or an undisclosed injury situation will happen, but they definitely do happen and it’s always in your best interest to check. Last week was bad for this. You also don’t necessarily need to check on every single guy, but anyone with some sort of an injury tag, a quarterback who is supposed to make a spot start or a QB who won a QB battle as of late is always critical to look into.
How do you check on your players’ status? Go to Twitter and do one of two things. 1. Search the players’ last name if it’s unique enough that it won’t bring up a ton of irrelevant search results. 2. Go to a local beatwriters Twitter handle and see what he’s reporting from the game. Unfortunately, there isn’t an Adam Schefter, Ian Rapoport or Jay Glazer taking care of people in the college game.
2. Always check the weather. This is especially true this time of year. Almost every college stadium is outdoors. I typically factor in weather at times with my picks without really bringing it up in the text, but forecasts are often wrong a few days in advance. This isn’t baseball where we are writing articles the day of the games. The biggest thing with weather is wind with quarterbacks and wide receivers in the cold temperatures. Over/unders often change drastically because of this.
FanDuel Prices 1st. DraftKings prices 2nd
! Injury/Starter Watch
Brandon Doughy $9,100/$7,800 – This game is for the CUSA East title and the bid to go to the CUSA Championship game. Western Kentucky is -10.5 and projected for 37 points. This should easily be another day of 300-plus passing yards.
Nick Arbuckle $8,400 (FanDuel) – Sun Belt action! Both of these teams are below average in the conference and are honestly two of the worst teams in the FBS. However, Arbuckle is a good quarterback who can spread the wealth and has thrown for at least 300 yards in nine of 10 games this year. Georgia State is still alive for a bowl game with a -1 line and projected for 29 points. He will be terrific in GPPs since he won’t be used much.
C.J. Beathard $6,900/$5,500 – I’ve been hesitant on listing C.J. Beathard the last couple weeks due to him playing banged up and some weather concerns. While Beathard isn’t 100 percent, he’s doing a lot better than he was a month ago. Iowa is 11-0 and has the College Football Playoff in their sights. Iowa is -2.5 and projected for 30 points. While he usually doesn’t rack up a ton of rushing yards, Beathard does get a lot of red zone looks on the ground. Beathard is clearly a better play on DraftKings as well.
Peyton Bender $6,600/$6,700 ! – If Luke Falk can’t play for Washington State, Bender will get the start. Think of this as a similar situation to Baylor – this is a plug-in play for a system. Washington isn’t a great matchup on the road and Wazzu is +7 with a projected 23 points, but he’s very cheap if he’s the starter and should still throw for over 300 yards. Unlike Beathard, Bender is better on FanDuel.
Tommy Armstrong $5,100 (DraftKings only) – Armstrong is $8,600 on FanDuel, which is way too expensive. However, $5,100 is way too cheap. Iowa’s defense has been a bit suspect as of late, particularly against the pass. Despite Iowa being undefeated and Nebraska 5-6, the Huskers are much better than their record indicates with so many close losses and they are only +2.5.
Jeremy McNichols $8,900/$7,900 – Boise State is -7.5 and projected for 33 points. San Jose State is tied for 101st in yards per rush allowed (YPRA). McNichols has the highest floor of any running back and one of the best ceilings.
Kareem Hunt $8,200/$7,400 – Thanks to a Northern Illinois loss on Tuesday night, Toledo clinches the MAC West with a win over Western Michigan. The Rockets are -8 and projected for 34 points. Western is tied for 118th in YPRA. Toledo should rush for over 200 yards with Hunt claiming 150 of them.
Anthony Wales $8,100/$6,400 – Ever since Wales became the starter, he’s rushed for over 100 yards in every CUSA contest. Western Kentucky is -10.5 and projected for 37 points. Marshall is tied for 49th in YPRA.
Qadree Ollison $6,100/$5,300 – Vegas has been pretty high on Miami and down on Pittsburgh for most of the season in general. That’s not true here as Pittsburgh is -7 and projected for 31 points. Why? The matchup. Pitt loves to run the ball and Miami is tied for 120th in YPRA. With Ollison now the featured back, this is my top play at running back.
Myles Gaskin $5,700/$5,100 – Gaskin has been the featured back for a few weeks now and I have no clue why he isn’t more expensive yet. Washington is -7 and projected for 30 points. Washington State is tied for 105th in YPRA. This is another top play.
Javin Webb $5,500/$3,000 ! – Kenneth Farrow is questionable with a foot injury. If he doesn’t play, Webb should see a good increase in snaps and running attempts. This game vs Navy is for the American West title, a bid to the American Championship and a possible bid to a New Year’s Six bowl. Houston is +4, projected for 29 points and Navy is tied for 31st in YPRA, but Webb is very cheap for someone who could see a lot of work.
Thomas Sperbeck $6,500 (DraftKings only) – Sperbeck is too expensive on FanDuel, but he’s very reasonable on DraftKings.
Taywan Taylor $7,900/$6,000 – No matter who the matchup is, Taylor continues to put up big numbers.
Corey Davis $7,700/$6,900 – Finally Davis is back to his enormous numbers like last season. Western Michigan will be throwing a lot to keep up with Toledo.
DeMarcus Ayres $6,400/$5,200 – Greg Ward is back at QB and we should see an increase in passes with Ward coming off an ankle injury.
Penny Hart $6,100 (FanDuel) – The No. 1 wide receiver on Georgia State has huge upside in this friendly matchup with Troy.
Jared Dangerfield $5,900/$5,100 – Dangerfield was the X wide receiver on Western Kentucky last season, but has been more of the No. 2 guy this year coming off his injury. Even so, his floor is fantastic for this price and still has decent upside.
Davonte Allen $5,600/$4,400 – A lot of these CUSA and MAC teams’ wide receivers are underpriced on FanDuel. Allen is definitely underpriced and Marshall should be throwing a lot to keep up with Western.
Jesse Kroll $5,600 (FanDuel) – Yes, Central Michigan is actually more of a passing offense now. Kroll is by far the best receiver who can put up big numbers. This matchup is also as good as it gets with Central -23.5 and projected for 41 points against Eastern Michigan.
Imani Davis $5,200 (FanDuel) – Davis leads Akron in receptions and is capable of big games. Akron has done much better offensively as of late and gets a really good matchup with Kent State. Akron is only projected for 25 points, but they are -10.5.
Drew Morgan $4,200 (DraftKings only) – Absurdly great value on Draftkings. His price on FanDuel is fair at $6,000, but you can do better there.
Jordan Westerkamp $4,000 (DraftKings only) – See above.
TE is FanDuel only
I like all of these TEs fairly equally when it comes to FPTS per dollar. Fill in for what works.
Keith Rucker $4,300 !
Hunter Henry $4,300
Billy Freeman $3,900
Ryan Yurachek $3,900
Joshua Perkins $3,400
Henry Krieger Coble $3,200
Chris Johnson $6,600/$7,000 – Amazing play on both sites, but especially on FanDuel. Absolute no-brainer here. Johnson is a superb athlete and dual-threat quarterback taking over for the injured Baylor quarterbacks. TCU’s defense is average and Baylor is projected for 39 points with a +1 line. This will be a classic Big 12 shootout.
Royce Freeman $8,100/$7,500 – Oregon is -36 against its rival Oregon State and projected for 54 points. There’s a decent chance Freeman won’t play the whole game as Oregon will likely blow State out. But he must be included as he still has the potential to be the best running back if it’s somewhat close and brings a good floor.
Aaron Green $7,400/$6,200 – Remember a few weeks ago when I said I couldn’t buy that TCU’s running game couldn’t be this bad? Green is now on a huge roll and TCU is projected for 40 points with a -1 line against Baylor. This is obviously a huge game and we can expect the best from him.
Jordan Johnson $6,100 (FanDuel) – Johnson is the goal line back on Buffalo and also gets a decent chunk of the carries. Johnson correlates very well to when Buffalo wins and racks up the points (not meaning to state the obvious here, but it’s particularly strong here). Buffalo is -6.5 and projected for 31 points.
Corey Coleman $8,400/$7,000 – Yes, he’s expensive, and yes there is risk here. But this is a perfect matchup and it’s not like Coleman became a bad wide receiver all of a sudden. He simply ran into the two best defenses with some backup quarterbacks getting their first real playing experience (plus Oklahoma was in the rain).
Braylon Addison $6,600/$5,700 – A healthy Vernon Adams makes a huge difference. Oregon will rack up the points. Addison doesn’t have the best ceiling in this matchup given that they are a huge favorite, but it’s a solid floor.
Ron Willoughby $5,500 (FanDuel) – The X wide receiver on Buffalo has a great matchup with UMass and is capable of going over 100 yards.
KaVontae Turpin $5,400/$5,000 – All the projected points for TCU and Josh Doctson is still out.
Joshua Atkinson $5,400/$5,100 – Tulsa needs to win this game to become bowl eligible. This is against their rival Tulane. Tulsa is -7 and projected for 35 points. Atkinson has been running bad in the touchdown department and is underpriced.
TE is FanDuel only
Matt Weiser $3,500 – Weiser is the second best target in the Buffalo passing game and should see a lot of looks in a good matchup against UMass.
Rodney Mills $3,200 – Mills is the second best target in the UMass passing game, and Mills usually thrives as UMass throws to keep up with the opposition.View all posts by Nick Juskewycz