2015 NFL Daily Fantasy: Undervalued QB #4 – The Washington Redskins QB
I know, I know – how in the world can Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins or Colt McCoy be undervalued coming into the season? RGIII can’t stay healthy and what exactly do Cousins and McCoy bring to the table from a fantasy prospective?
Let’s first cover the salaries. On FanDuel, RGIII is $7,300 (18th-most expensive), Cousins is $6,000 (36th) and McCoy is $5,000 (minimum). On DraftKings, RGIII is $6,400 (19th) with Cousins and McCoy at $5,000 (minimum). All three players are very affordable.
But this comes down to one simple point – Washington was by far the unluckiest team in the NFL when it came to points versus the other numbers.
The Redskins scored 18.8 points last season, which only ranked 26th in the NFL. In terms of starts, RGIII led with seven, Cousins had five and McCoy with the other four.
Here are the numbers from 2014 showing why Washington should show improvement in 2015:
Yards Per Play – 5.7 (10th)
Yards Per Game – 358.6 (13th)
Turnovers – -12 (30th)
Offensive Yards Per Point – 19.1 (31st)
Defensive Yards Per Point – 13.0 (31st)
The first two are simple. The Redskins moved the ball above average in 2015 despite the fact they were near the bottom in points. There are a few factors that can cause a differential like this, but the primary one is turnovers. That’s what the third number is. But as we know, turnovers have a lot of variance and luck to them.
The next is offensive yards per point. If you haven’t seen some of the earlier QB articles, I really like the yards per point category. It’s a great way to tell how fortunate your offense and/or defense did when it came to touchdowns vs field goals, turnovers and field position. Again, while some teams are obviously better than others at achieving these things, there is a lot of variance with them, and you should regress to the mean over a larger sample size.
Washington moved the ball 19.1 yards per point last season, which was almost the worst in the league. This means they are almost guaranteed to improve in 2015, especially based on their yards per game. They are trending upward. And while the defensive yards per point isn’t as important from a fantasy perspective, the Redskins were almost dead last by allowing a point for a mere 13 yards per game. That number should also improve in 2015 making the Redskins a better team when it comes to the final score.
The Redskins do have their issues and by no means am I calling for them to make the Super Bowl, but they are definitely a solid sleeper pick when it comes to the numbers. Like any other team, health will be key, but not for RGIII, players more like Trent Williams and Jordan Reed (already lost Niles Paul). This offense had a lot of starters miss time or play banged up for a good chunk of the 2014 season, and some better luck there would also increase their points and fantasy production in 2015.
So, as you can see, Washington had a lot of bad luck last season, and there are several reasons it should see better fantasy production for its quarterback(s) and a better record in 2015 (could even see them sneaking into the playoffs at 9-7). Obviously the backups are way underpriced if one of them gets the start in Week 1, but even RGIII is undervalued with more expected points on the scoreboard.View all posts by Nick Juskewycz