Mad Max’s NFL GPP Rundown (Week 2)
I want to preface this article with a disclaimer: These plays are specifically tailored for GPPs, and are not necessarily the best plays at each position.
Below are guys that I love, who also will be under-owned in the big GPPs this weekend.
GPP QB/WR/TE Pairings
Teddy Bridgewater/Mike Wallace/Kyle Rudolph
Seeing Bridgewater at .6% ownership in the Bomb this Thursday surprised me a bit, but I guess one game has everyone down on Bridgewater and the Vikings offense. What I learned last year, that I think is incredibly helpful in DFS, is to not overrate poor road games from QBs. Guys can look awful on the road, go home, and do a total 360. I don’t think Bridgewater is as bad as he looked Monday night.
The Vikings actually come in at 14.74 pass point share on our Sportsbook Projection Tool, which is close to teams like Atlanta and Pittsburgh. This was unexpected, but given the Lions solid Run D but bad Pass D, it definitely makes some sense. And while I think that number is a bit inflated since the Vikings should run more with AP back in the fold, but you can’t deny the incredible value here.
If you look at the top receivers on the Vikings from week 1, two guys stand out. Mike Wallace with 6 rec on 7 targets for 63 yards, and Kyle Rudolph with 5 for 53 on 7 targets. I think these are the guys we should target. Charles Johnson has the most snaps out of anyone, but I’m doubting him a bit here. I think with other talents on this team, Bridgewater isn’t forcing it to Johnson and he’s not getting as open as Rudolph and Wallace, and that’s why we see Johnson’s targets so low. Wallace is still a great talent at WR.
Russell Wilson/Jimmy Graham
While the Bridgewater and Vikings pass offense pick may be hard to stomach, but this next stack is one you can warm up to. Wilson was inexplicably 1.1% used in the Thursday Bomb, which is absolute insanity given he has the highest upside of any QB playing (He had multiple 30+ point games last year) and a solid match-up.The Packers are rated mediocre at best on defense by both PFF and Football Outsiders. With the addition of Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks actually finally have talent around Wilson, so I think his numbers improve this season. I pair him with Graham here because he’s their only TD threat in the receiving game, and it seems like a solid match-up. He didn’t look great against the Rams, but the Rams D may be top 5 in the NFL this year.
This ones a little unclear because we don’t know if T.Y. Hilton is playing. But regardless, Luck’s ownership level of 4.6% is absolutely criminal, and he is another QB with huge upside who needs to absolutely be in play here. If you’re uncomfortable playing him with a WR without knowing T.Y. Hilton’s status, then don’t. He can be played on his own. But he definitely needs to be used, and his low ownership makes me want to use him a lot.
Odell Beckham Jr.
Julio Jones hasd 26.4% ownership, Antonio Brown got about 25%, and OBJ came in 3rd in the high priced receiving tier at 13.6%. Recency bias anyone? Beckham Jr. has the best match-up here and I see no reason why he will regress from his epic rookie year. I rank Brown and OBJ as 1a and 1b this week, with Jones clearly in 3rd. I’ll certainly be favoring Beckham Jr. with that ownership level.
He burned a lot of people last week, and now no one wants a piece of him. But he was the most targeted receiver in this offense last week and has Aaron Rodgers passing to him. Seattle’s pass D is good but it’s not the epic shut down defense it used to be. I think he has quite a bit of upside at that pricepoint.
Coming in at a similar price as Carlos Hyde (who was somehow 33% owned), Miller has similar talent to Hyde, a better match-up, and a giant share of the Dolphins backfield. The Redskins actually are a solid run D with the addition of Terrance Knighton in the middle, so Miller’s poor game last week didn’t take me by surprise. Jacksonville is a different story, and I think Miller has a lot more openings this week. Miller has big upside as a pass catcher and a goal-line back.
The ownership of Johnson surprised me quite a bit here, only 4% in the Bomb. But with Andre Ellington out, he’s clearly the #1 RB. While David Johnson seems like a talent, he didn’t get 1 carry in the Cardinals 1st game and played 5 passing downs. Not only that, Bruce Arians stated that it wasn’t healthy to thrust rookies into prominent roles, which means there’s no way David Johnson has a big role Sunday.
Don’t like Chris Johnson as a player? Well, he’s going against a bad D, will likely get 15-20 carries, and will have some involvment in the pass game. At his price, I’d take any RB in that role and Chris Johnson is, at worst, an OK player.
The one week recency bias is in full force here as Murray is only 6.4% on FanDuel, despite a good match-up against his former team. You can cite Darren Sproles’ 5 carries and Ryan Matthews 3, and Sproles getting a lot of action at RB, as a reason to fade Murray. But a game where the Eagles are trailing is not a game where Murray will do well, he’s not the go to pass-catching back on that team. But if the Eagles are up, and they’re 6 point favorites in this game, Murray will get a lot more work and he’s capable of a huge game here. I’m not going to base Murray’s expectation on just 1 game, and I think the extra motivation here going against the Cowboys is something to consider.
The Redskins have a good run D but a bad pass D and the Rams are actually projected to score a good chunk of points. But who do we target? I’ve heard Tavon Austin rumblings, but aside from that special teams TD and run TD he had 2 catches for -2 yards last week. Not what we want out of a WR. The Redskins were terrible against TEs last year (remember Larry Donnell’s 3 TD game?) and they haven’t added anyone that would have me believe they’ll be any better this season. Cook was the highest producing Ram last week with 5 catches for 85 yards, and has an infinitely better match-up this week. He’s a deep, deep GPP play but one with fantastic upside.
He flew under the radar last week, but actually was targeted 8 times and probably is the 2nd most reliable target aside from Jordan Matthews in this passing offense. He was 2% owned in the bomb but has great upside here and like Cook is going against a team who was very bad at defending the TE last year in Dallas. He’s a big sleeper but also has great upside.
Eifert was the breakout TE last week with an absolutely massive 2 TD, 9 catch, 104 yard game but it seems like that wasn’t enough to jack his ownership levels, as he was only 11.6% owned in the Thursday Bomb. I expect that ownership to be higher on DraftKings, where his price is lower and some people will be flexing a TE, but I don’t think many DFSers understand how amazing Eifert’s Week 1 was. In a game where the Bengals dominated, Eifert still ran as many pass routes as A.J. Green, was used some at WR, and was targeted 12 times. This does not happen with TEs not named Rob Gronkowski. Eifert missed the entire 2014 season with an injury, but was a former 1st round pick with potential in 2013, just stuck behind Jermaine Gresham. With Gresham gone, expect a lot more of this. Eifert should be in the $6,000s on DraftKings.
No Business Being That Highly Owned
Carlos Hyde (33.1% in the Bomb)
Wow, this one has me scratching my head. Hyde is a good back, but his team is expected to score 19 points and the Steelers are a solid run D. His price isn’t even good on FanDuel. The 49ers are expected to score only 2 TDs, why are we so confident he’s going to get one of them? Don’t get me wrong, he’s an alright play, just not good enough to warrant this ownership.
Brandin Cooks (22.5% in the Bomb)
The Buccaneers’ D is bad, yes, but the Saints have several options in the passing game, and C.j. Spiller is likely back as well. I definitely like Cooks, but felt like he was more of a sleeper this week, not the 4th highest owned WR on FanDuel. He definitely could be in for a good game, but I could also see 5 catches for 55 yards, which we definitely do not want from a $7,000s receiver. I am a little more into big rookie receiver Brandon Coleman, who got 7 targets and actually played almost 4/5 of passing downs in his 1st game. He’s a big receiver and a solid red zone target, and is very cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
My favorite D/ST, in order:
Good luck this weekend! Tweet me @maxjsteinberg if you have any questions.View all posts by Max J Steinberg