Mad Max’s GPP Tips (8/10)
I’m in the midst (or towards the end) of a long post-WSOP vacation, so it’s been a little tough to find the time to do these articles. This one is going to be a little shorter than normal, but I hope it’s just as helpful.
I felt compelled to write a Mad Max article for a couple reasons. The first reason is that it’s a Monday 7 game slate, and GPP strategy becomes pretty bizarre (in theory) when there are so few players to choose from. The second is that despite this, DraftKings in running really big, top heavy tournaments tomorrow. One $300 tournament and one $3 tournament that will award $100,000 for first. I’m not sure why they chose this day to run such ridiculously big tournaments, but since we certainly don’t want to pass up on this opportunity, it’s important to figure out how to optimize on a day like this.
Play Exclusively Johnny Cueto and Chris Sale at Pitcher
There are some other tempting plays at pitcher tonight like Matt Shoemaker and Brett Anderson (my guess is Shoemaker gets quite a bit of play), but I just don’t see either being as close to as good as Cueto and Sale. There will be some outcomes tomorrow where one of these guys has a poor game, but most of the time we’re going to get at least two solid games from both. And a solid game from either one of these guys is going to outperform Shoemaker and Anderson most of the time.
And there are definitely arguments against Shoemaker and Anderson. Shoemaker will be exposed a bit here as a high HR allowed pitcher in a high HR park, so he has a lot of blow up potential. Anderson is facing a lineup of almost all right-handers.
And if you’re worried about parody. I think there will be enough people attempting to be clever here where we won’t be completely identical to the field.
Stack 3s and 4s, not 5s and 6s.
We have only 14 teams playing and only one of the games is being held at a hitters park. There are a couple of really bad pitchers going as well, but overall there are very few teams to stack and none of them have terribly high run projections. I think stacking 5 or 6 hitters on one team severely limits you here. There is a big chance no team breaks 6-7 runs, and if thats the case you want to make lineups that can be winners even when that happens. This means finding high upside hitters from many different teams, and sacrificing correlation.
While no stack is totally under-the-radar tonight, here are a couple that have peaked my interest.
The San Diego Padres
This line currently does not make much sense to me at all. The Padres are up against lefty junk-baller David Holmberg, a pitcher who held the Pirates and Cardinals in check in his first two starts but has had an xFIP of 5.54 on average (over a full season this might be the worst xFIP in the NL). And, the Padres best hitters are mostly righties! Betcris.com has them currently at about 3.5 runs, I was expecting more like 4.2. Maybe I’m missing something here, but I can’t figure it out.
Also, don’t be afraid to use a lefty like Yonder Alonso in this stack. In his career, Holmberg has been wrecked by lefties.
The Chicago White Sox
This stack is more of a strategic stack. Matt Shoemaker is a high HR allowed pitcher, so he has some big blow-up potential at HR favorable U.S. Cellular Field. I think Shoemaker gets used quite a bit on DraftKings, so if the White Sox do go off, we get the benefit of reverse correlation with a lot of the field. And I highly doubt this stack gets over 3-4% ownership. Seems perfect for a day like today, make sure to favor the HR hitters like Avisail Garcia and Jose Abreu.
Lastly, Don’t Be Afraid to Use Quality Hitters in Bad Situations
What I mean by this is, don’t shy away from some guys with potential and upside because of a factor that usually takes them off your list. For example, using a lefty facing a lefty like Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. Both their prices are great, and they still could have a big game even vs a left-hander. Or guys toward the bottom of the order with some positives, like Alex Rios. Rios is a great hitter and gets a left-handed pitcher, so even though he may be batting 8th he could still get you a lot of fantasy points. Or even Bryce Harper, who’s facing a lefty but obviously has the potential for a big game. With so few games you don’t want to be stuck with the same guys everyone else is using.
Hope you enjoyed my article. I’ll be on the road all day, so make sure to check things like weather and lineups before making any lineup decisions. Good luck!View all posts by Max J Steinberg