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Mad Max’s GPP Rundown (9/4)

Welcome to another edition of Mad Max’s GPP Rundown. The topics today include: Favorite and least favorite pitchers, what to do with Carlos Gonzalez in GPPs, and how to construct your lineups.

Favorite Pitchers:

I asked Danny to rank his favorite pitchers 1-5, and I did the same. Since you’re special, I’m going to share our lists with you. The list is based on DraftKings Value, not just who’s the best regardless of salary.

Max

1) Garrett Richards
2) Jacob deGrom
3) Kris Medlen
4) Carlos Martinez
5) Collin McHugh

Danny

1) Garrett Richards
2) Kris Medlen
3) Jacob deGrom
4) Drew Hutchison
5) Collin McHugh

As you can see, there wasn’t a ton of disagreement here but the list may surprise you a bit. Here’s an explanation for out top 3:

Garrett Richards – You may be scratching your head a bit here as Richards hasn’t exactly been lighting it up recently. But in terms of our pitcher evaluation, he’s off the charts. His contact rates in his past 5 games have been extremely low (he’s getting a lot of swings and misses), Fstrike% is very good, and our new stat Correct% indicates hitters have been having a tough time guessing correctly on whether his pitches are in the strikezone, indicating great movement on his pitches. The Rangers will be a little higher of a strikeout team with Joey Gallo back in the lineup as well. But what I really love about Richards is his price, it’s in the mid $8,000s on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Jacob deGrom –  This one makes a lot more sense. deGrom is a great pitcher and has a great match-up against the Marlins. The only issue is he’s priced a little bit high and he’s on the road, still love him though.

Kris Medlen – This may be the most surprising one on this list but I really like Medlen here. Not only does Medlen have a good match-up at home, he shows up shockingly well on our recent performance sheet, sporting contact rates similar to guys like Luis Severino. The only issue is he hasn’t thrown more than 80 pitches in his two starts on the season, but I’m hoping to see closer to 90 tonight. Obviously that isn’t ideal, but he’s only freaking $4,700, so he doesn’t need to do much to be worth it. He’s averaged 17.5 points in his 1st 2 starts, I don’t think it’s a stretch he gets 20+ against the White Sox. He’s a great guy to pair with someone like Jacob deGrom to free up some salary.

 

Teams to Stack:

Danny and I also made a list of our least favorite pitchers today:

Max

1) Edgar Olmos (vs the A’s)
2) Adam Morgan (vs the Red Sox)
3) Chris Heston (vs the Rockies)

Danny

1) Edgar Olmos
2) Chris Heston
3) Keyvius Sampson (vs the Brewers)

I usually don’t recommend stacking, but when there are some really great pitchers to target I think it’s a good move. Tonight is one of those nights.

The Oakland A’s

Keep in mind for Olmos, he’s at the Oakland Colliseum which is one of the worst hitters parks in baseball, so even though by all accounts he’s awful, he could still do alright given the park he’s playing at. That being said, the A’s have solid prices, and have a chance at a really good game. They may run under-the-radar tonight because of the Coors game, but they are a great stack to pair with deGrom and Richards.

The Boston Red Sox

The Sox have some pretty quality prices here, and Fenway is one of the best hitters parks in baseball. Morgan is a junk-baller lefty who will likely get wrecked against such a strong righty lineup at a great park for righties.

The Colorado Rockies

Chris Heston shows up really poorly on our pitcher performance sheet. He’s lost significant velocity on his sinker and he’s consequently been hit a lot harder and he’s been missing a lot less bats. Going to Coors is an absolute nightmare for Heston, it’s been shown pitches lose their sink in the high altitude. With lower velocity, less sink, and a lineup full of lefties, I would be shocked if Heston doesn’t get absolutely torched tonight.

Speaking of the Rockies, there’s been one player who’s been on fire recently and he should be on everyone’s radar. The question, what to do with him in GPPs?

What do we do with Carlos Gonzalez?

Car-Gon has been red hot recently and with a great DraftKings price ($4,700) and a great match-up vs a high splits righty, I think Gonzalez will be used in close or over 50% of lineups in GPPs. If you’ve read any of my articles, you know that I usually lean towards fading any hitter who will be highly owned, but I actually can’t bring myself to fade Car-Gon completely tonight. I think the match-up is just too good to pass up.

That being said, we should be very conscious of how we use Carlos Gonzalez tonight, because if we don’t get creative enough, our lineups will be too similar to the field and it will minimize our chances of winning. Here are some Do’s and Don’t’s.

Don’t use Car-Gon in a 5 or 6 player Rockies Stack

If it turns out to be a night where the Rockies are the best stack, we’re going to have a very similar lineup to hundreds of other DFSers.

Do use Car-Gon with two high-salary pitchers

This is a good way to give our lineup some differentiation, as DFSers like going high-low with pitcher and the prices tonight are quality enough where we can easily make Carlos Martinez and Jacob deGrom lineups where we can easily fit in Car-Gon without sacrificing too much.

Do use Car-Gon with some low salary hitters

There aren’t many elite pitchers tonight, so most DFSers will have a lot of salary to spend on hitters. Going high/low with hitters in your lineup, paying up for several elite guys and using a few low salary dudes like Justin Smoak, Anthony Gose, and Jake Smolinski will create an incredibly unique lineup.

Do make a Rockies Stack without Car-Gon

You might think this is insane, but players are not as correlated as much as you think. It’s very possible the Rockies go off without Gonzalez having a great game, and if that happens I don’t think many players will share your lineup.

Don’t use Car-Gon with two chalk pitchers i.e. deGrom and Severino

Again, this is not creative enough to maximize our chances of winning a GPP.

Do use high salary hitters at 1B, 2B, 3B, and SS

Whether or not you fade Gonzalez, his salary limits the amount one can spend at other positions. If we want to change our lineup construction from the field, we should be spending up at the other positions on players like Joey Votto, Carlos Correa, and Miguel Cabrera.

Do use Bryce Harper instead of Car-Gon

Harper is at a similar price-point, and has a really underrated match-up here. He gets a high splits righty who allows a lot of HRs, Harper could be in for a big game.

Any questions, tweet me @maxjsteinberg or chat with us on the Daily Fantasy Winners Forum!

View all posts by Max J Steinberg
Max J Steinberg

About the Author

Max J Steinberg Max Steinberg is a professional poker player and a top Daily Fantasy player who uses his creativity and mathematical abilities he cultivated as a poker player to win money on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He already has several big tournament scores to his name including the Victiv Bowl and countless MLB Monster wins. Follow him on twitter @maxjsteinberg.

2 thoughts on “Mad Max’s GPP Rundown (9/4)

  1. SAP2469

    Hi, i have this free week trial and see this 9/4 advice but today is 9/7, so it’s doesn’t seem relevant. The only thing I can find of relevance is the Forum, latest news that shows some advice. As well I use the stats you post, thanks.

    1. Max J SteinbergMax J Steinberg Post author

      The algorithmic picks are not every day, and whenever there are morning only as the majority of the games we don’t do them. Thursdays are always off as well. When we decided to do a 1-week free trial, we made it that length of time with the idea that someone would get about 4 days of algorithmic picks.

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