Mad Max’s GPP Rundown (8/7)
Welcome! It’s a big Friday for tournaments across the DFS industry tonight.
I apologize for being slightly late on this article, I’m traveling on the east coast today and did not have time in the morning to do any writing. I have done a lot of research however, and this is certainly one of the more interesting slates I’ve encountered this year. We have a lot of quality pitchers to choose from, few teams to stack, and some really strange pricing. There are many ways to make a lineup today.
As always, I’ll start with pitcher.
I don’t think I’ve ever encountered a day where there are legitimately over 10 very viable pitchers to choose from, until today that is. We have some elite guys, but most of them are on the road and are priced very highly. We also have some very good value in the mid-tiers, guys who aren’t elite but have strong match-ups. Looking over both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing, I have a few guesses on ownership:
1) Clayton Kershaw won’t be owned very highly. He’s on the road and doesn’t have a terribly appealing matchup, and his price is just too massive for anyone to be jumping for joy using him tonight.
2) Julio Teheran and James Shields (especially Shields) will have high-ish ownership on DraftKings. Jose Fernandez will be the highest owned pitcher on FanDuel.
3) Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole will not be highly owned at all.
So the question is, what do we do with this information?
Here’s my thought regarding Kershaw. He is the pitcher here with the most upside, but it’s very likely at least two or three of the lower salary guys matches him or outdoes him tonight. If you use Kershaw, you have very little flexibility for picking hitters and likely will not be able to have as high of an upside lineup as someone who goes with, let’s say, James Shields. So for GPPs, I don’t love him as an option, especially on DraftKings. I think you can use him on FanDuel though, just make sure you have all players who have solid HR or SB upside. Otherwise, you’re handcuffing yourself. I likely will make a couple Kershaw lineups, but I’m going to be very particular about the low salary players I select.
With regards to the high ownership guys, I think there are so many options that none of the guys I listed are worth fading, because I doubt they’ll get high enough ownership to warrant it. James Shields is the guy I’m most confident will get significant ownership, but I don’t think his floor is very low. Pick the guys you like the most and don’t worry about pitcher ownership tonight.
And then we get to deGrom and Cole. Don’t be shy to use either one. deGrom has a good matchup on the road, and is best out of the pitchers playing at home. I really think they’ll have some lower ownership levels tonight, despite both being great pitchers with upside regardless of the match-up.
I also have some deeper sleepers by the way…
Lance Lynn ($9,600) – On the road and surrounded by more appealing options, I doubt Lynn gets more than 5% ownership, but he’s a big sleeper. He’s a hard-throwing righty with huge splits and the Brewers don’t have many lefties in their lineup at all (FantasyLabs guesses 3). He has a lot more strikeout upside than you think. I really don’t think anyone uses him tonight but is at a great price-point considering all of our cheap options at hitter.
Andrew Heaney ($7,100) – Heaney has a great price and is likely going up against a weaker lineup than you may expect against the Orioles. We should see Nolan Reimold and Jonathon Schoop in the lineup (some very high strikeout hitters) and the Orioles lineup is not scary at all playing away from Camden Yards.
Since we’re going to be spending quite a bit on pitcher tonight, it’s important to locate those low-priced hitters with upside we can fit into our lineups. Below are some of my favorites and in parenthesis will be their best price:
Jayson Werth (DK $3,100) – There’s a lot to love about Werth tonight, particularly with this match-up. Not only is he facing a lefty, he’s facing a lefty who’s bad at holding base-runners, so Werth has both power and SB upside. He’ll be in a ton of my lineups tonight.
Justin Bour (DK $2,500) – Bour is a perfect GPP play as a Teheran fade. Teheran gives up a lot of HRs, and particularly struggles against lefties. As a lefty power hitter, Bour has the perfect match-up here although the park leaves a bit to be desired. With such a ridiculously low price, Bour is already a great value play, but given that he has reverse correlation with a pitcher I want to fade makes him even that more juicy.
Carlos Santana (FD $3,000) – Santana has not been lighting it up lately (Not that I care about things like that) but the match-up tonight plays into Santana’s strengths well. Like Teheran, Twins pitcher Mike Pelfrey gives up a lot of HRs to left-handers so using the Indians best power hitter seems like a no-brainer. Pelfrey also is not great against base-runners, and Santana can actually steal a few. He’ll be under-owned but is a great play.
Anthony Gose (DK $3,000) – Just way too low priced for a speedy lead-off hitter. A SB and a couple of hits is all we need here.
Omar Infante (DK $2,700) He’ll be way down in the order, but he has a pitch-type matchup here and is dirt cheap at 2B.
Yadier Molina (FD $2,200) Molina has hit for very little power this year, but I think a lot of that has to do with the park he plays at. At Miller park, he’ll have a lot easier of a time going deep and Tyler Cravy’s peripheral’s suggest he’s not very good against right-handers.
My guess is the Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals and Nationals get most the love in the stacking department, and all for good reason (I like the Nationals and Tigers best). But there are a few stacks I really like that will be quite under-the-radar tonight.
The Cleveland Indians
Whenever the Indians face a righty who gives up SBs, I get excited. When it’s a Homerun prone pitcher as well, I’m downright giddy. This is a nightmare match-up for Mike Pelfrey as the Indians lefties all can hit for power and steal bases. Lindor, Brantley, and Carlos Santana could all be in for big games, and all of them are great value.
The St. Louis Cardinals
I don’t understand the run-line for the Cardinals tonight at all. Vegas has them scoring about 4 runs, but I think it should be higher. This is a great lineup at a very hitter friendly park, and they’re facing a bad pitcher in Tyler Cravy. I could see them having a big game tonight and then DFSers looking back and wondering why they didn’t use them more.
Deep Sleeper Stack
The LA Angels
There aren’t a ton of teams to stack tonight, so I think it’s a great night to dig a little deeper for stacks. The Angels are a perfect spot here. While Kevin Gausman is good, it’s been shown that young pitchers struggle on the road in general, and it’s not like he’s an elite guy here. He strikes out only 7.55 hitters per 9. There’s a ton of value in this stack as well. On DraftKings, Albert Pujols is only $3,800 and guys like David deJesus and David Murphy are priced at $2,200. You can get a big game from the Angels here at a bargain price.
Questions or comments? Tweet me @maxjsteinberg. Good luck tonight!View all posts by Max J Steinberg