Mad Max’s GPP Rundown (7/31)
I’m traveling to Boston today to visit family, so I won’t be able to really do a full run down today. I’ll give you the same picks as usual, but just not as much explanation. Let’s just get right into it!
Clayton Kershaw ($13,300) – This one is pretty obvious. Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and has been hotter than the sun lately. The Angels are a solid lineup especially if Mike Trout is back, but Vegas projects them at 2.4 runs. FanDuel scoring is very skewed toward pitcher so don’t be afraid to spend up for this dude.
Danny Salazar ($8,800) – Salazar is $10,900 on DraftKings, so I have no idea what’s going on with FanDuel’s salary algorithm. Oakland’s lineup has gotten a little weaker with the absence on Ben Zobrist, and while it may surprise you, Salazar’s numbers are elite. His 10.67K/9 and 3.01 xFIP is up there with the best. He will be extremely low-owned for his skill.
Madison Bumgarner ($10,300) – He’s on the road at a hitters park, but Bumgarner has a great matchup in the sense that he dominates lefties and the Rangers should have several of them in their lineup tonight. He may not get the shut out but he should get enough strikeouts to make up for it, and his price is fantastic.
For Both FanDuel and DraftKings:
Michael Wacha ($9,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel) – As a reverse splits righty (meaning, Wacha fairs better against lefties), Wacha could not have a more perfect matchup tonight. The Rockies lineup was already awful, and it just got a lot worse shipping away their best right-handed bat in Troy Tulowitzki. I think you could make a serious argument for playing Wacha over Kershaw tonight on FanDuel cash if there are enough good high-salary hitters to make up for the small drop off.
One thing I’ve recently been experimenting with is stacking a little less and using more top quality hitters in mediocre matchups. By top quality I don’t simply mean Joey Votto, but a player who’s playing at a specific park, with a specific handedness matchup, who projects to do very well on average individually, even though his team may not. Here are a few guys who I project to perform well even though their team as a whole may not.
(price listed is their most favorable price)
Freddie Freeman ($4,200 on DraftKings)
Anthony Rizzo ($3,100 on FanDuel)
J.D. Martinez ($4,600 on DraftKings)
Adam Lind ($4,000 on DraftKings)
Paul Goldschmidt (Also great SB matchup) ($4,900 on FanDuel)
Justin Upton ($2,800 on FanDuel)
Baltimore Orioles and St. Louis Cardinals
Both teams have great matchups against poor pitchers (The Orioles draw Buck Farmer and the Cardinals draw Kyle Kendrick) and both stacks are reasonably priced. The Orioles switch around their lineup a lot so we may see some great value at the top of the order. Manny Machado is probably my favorite play for the Os, as he has a fantastic pitch-type matchup (he loves hitting change-ups and straight 4-seams, pitches Farmer throw exclusively). My favorite play for the Cardinals is probably Heyward, who’s their most skilled hitter even though he’s toward the bottom of the order.
The Cubs have a run projection under 4, but their top 5 hitters all are fantastic from a pure skill standpoint, especially against a righty at Miller Park. On FanDuel in particular, their prices are very good and you can stack 4 Cubs and use Kershaw without a problem at all.
I don’t understand the D-Backs projection tonight at all. Most sportsbooks seem to have them around 3.5 runs even though they’re at a great hitters park and are facing a mediocre pitcher Scott Feldman. The D-Backs are loaded with righties, but Feldman has actually had reverse splits in a large sample in his career, so this actually hurts him. Plus, Feldman is awful against baserunners, and Arizona has plenty of guys who steal bases. I think the Diamondbacks could do way, way better than most expect, and their ownership levels will be close to nil. Definitely include Paul Goldschimdt in this stack.
That’s all. Good luck to everyone tonight, I’ll be making GPP lineups on the plane.View all posts by Max J Steinberg