Mad Max’s GPP Rundown (7/20)
Tonight is a smaller MLB slate, with only 10 games as opposed to a full 15. It doesn’t seem like much, but that 5 game difference is huge when considering the variety of plays we have to choose from at each position, especially at the normally barren positions like SS and Catcher. I’ll get into this more a little later, but in GPPs, you can take advantage of this big time if you know what to do.
But before we get into hitting, as always, let me breakdown pitchers.
There are a ton of really awful pitchers today, and just a few good ones. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out who the best pitchers are tonight, but there is a particular pitcher who I think is fantastic tonight and should be very low-owned.
Matt Harvey ($10,500) – The Nationals are banged up as hell and have been using very high strikeout lineups from top to bottom. Harvey is an underdog on the road, but he’s certainly the highest projected pitcher in terms of strikeouts tonight, which is almost all that matters on FanDuel. His price is also very good, with a $600 price difference from DraftKings $11,100 salary. He should be the highest owned pitcher on FanDuel.
Gio Gonzalez ($8,100) – Gonzalez gets a fantastic matchup here at home. The Mets are just absolutely garbage against lefties and while Gonzalez may not be an ace, he’s a very solid pitcher and should be almost guaranteed a good start here. His price is what really draws me to him though, while Matt Harvey is $600 more expensive on DraftKings, Gio is $1,300 less expensive. I think he’ll be the highest owned pitcher on DraftKings.
Mad Max Special
Rubby de la Rosa ($6,600/$6,500) – I’m downright giddy about Rubby de la Rosa in GPPs tonight, which probably sounds strange given he’s going off two negative fantasy point starts. Rubby has improved a lot this season even though the stats may not show it yet. Here’s what I wrote a month ago in one of my first GPP articles:
“At the start of the season, Vegas bettors we’re very low on de la Rosa and I would consistently target hitters against him. But his solid play this season has me looking into his game and I like what I see. He has an xFIP of 3.33 this season, a K/9 of 8.45 (up from 6.55 last season), and has upped his first pitch strike % to 64% from 52.4%. We actually have a quality pitcher on our hands my friends!”
His xFIP right now still stands at 3.42 for the season, and his K/9 is still above 8. My opinion on de la Rosa hasn’t changed. DFS players love seeing recent performance, so I’m certain Rubby will get overlooked completely tonight even though he has a great matchup at home. I’ll be loading up on him, especially considering there are so many great high priced hitting plays tonight.
Now for my favorite part. As I stated earlier in the article, on short slates like this, being aware of potential ownership percentages of hitters can pay off big if you know who to fade. Hitters are extremely high variance plays, even the best guys can go 0-4 even at Coors Field. So on short slates like this, there will likely be positions where only 1-2 players get the majority of play (I’m talking 80%+ here). If we can identify who those players are, and then selectively fade those guys, we can significantly increase the upside of our GPP lineups.
Below, I’ll talk about the highest owned players at each position and give you a good option if you choose to fade.
Highest Owned: Troy Tulowitzki and Elvis Andrus
My guess is on FanDuel, Andrus gets extremely high ownership given his great price ($3,100), while on DraftKings Tulowitzki ($5,200) should be very highly owned since we have more room to maneuver. I think Eugenio Suarez is a quality option as a fade, he’s facing a lefty and the Reds have a great run projection tonight. Don’t sleep on Brad Miller if he’s in the lineup as well, Alfredo Simon is prone to giving up the long ball so Miller has upside even if he’s at the bottom of the order.
Highest Owned: D.J. LeMahieu, Robinson Cano, and Brandon Phillips
This one is pretty obvious to anyone. LeMahieu is playing at Coors and the Rockies have a huge run projection, and Cano comes in hot and his team has a great run projection and Phillips is leading off against a lefty. But all of these guys are flawed plays. LeMahieu gets most of his fantasy points from singles, doubles, and stolen bases, and Nick Martinez is a high HR allowed pitcher who’s good at holding base runners. It’s a matchup that doesn’t fit LeMahieu as well as it appears. As for Cano, we all know he’s capable of 0-4 games even against bad pitching. Brandon Phillips is leading off and has a left vs right matchup, but isn’t that high upside unless he can steal some bases, which will be hard against the lefty Richard.
My suggestion for GPPs? Ian Kinsler. He may have been the top option at 2nd on any other night, but with some great options that stand out he should be pretty low-owned. He’s leading off against a bad lefty, and the Tigers are projected to mash the Mariners.
Highest Owned: ????
This one is going to be a little tougher to figure out since we’re not sure which catchers are playing and where they’ll be in the order. We rate the Rangers and Rockies catchers highly, regardless of where they are in the order, but DFSers don’t like playing a guy hitting 8th or 7th in the NL. So don’t be afraid to play Hundley (or Mckenry) or Chirinos (or Corporan) in GPPs, my guess is they don’t get ridiculously high ownership.
Edit: It looks like the Rangers are using Tomas Telis at Catcher tonight. He’s batting 8th in the order and shouldn’t be used a ton, but he actually seems like a great sleeper tonight. He’s a contact hitter with a walk rate under 2% but a strikeout rate around 15%, which is great at Coors Field where balls in play go for hits way, way more. He also actually has some speed which helps turn those long singles into doubles. His $2,200 price tag on FanDuel is hard to beat.
Highest Owned: Adrian Beltre
Getting a lefty and playing at Coors, it’s quite obvious that Beltre will be the highest played 3B tonight. He’s relatively fairly priced on both sites as well, especially on DraftKings ($4,300). But there are a ton of options at 3B tonight, some that are arguably just as good as Beltre for their price, and all with high upside. To name a few: Kyle Seager, Kris Bryant, Evan Longoria, and Maikel Franco. Franco and Longoria specifically should have very low ownership, so if you want to get real crazy go with one of those two. But Seager and Bryant have a little more upside.
Here are a few stacks I like tonight:
Rockies (Power Hitters)
Nick Martinez gives up a lot of HRs, so make sure you target power hitters on the Rockies more than anything. That means Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Nolan Arenado. Nick Martinez is a reverse splits guy, so don’t worry about right vs right.
Rangers (Add a few lefties)
No one likes taking a left handed hitter vs a left handed pitcher, but at Coors their production is going to be good regardless of the matchup. I really don’t mind using Shin-Soo Choo or Prince Fielder in your stack.
Even without Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have a 4.8 run projection and loves facing lefties like J.A. Happ. I love Rajai Davis, Kinsler, Cespedes, and Victor Martinez. All of them have great prices and I don’t see any of them being particularly high owned.
As always, if you have any questions or comments tweet me @maxjsteinberg or join us on the Daily Fantasy Winners Forums!View all posts by Max J Steinberg