Mad Max’s GPP Rundown 6/30
Welcome back for another edition of Mad Max’s GPP Rundown. If you played DFS yesterday, I really, really hope you took a peek at our top picks yesterday, specifically Danny’s. He called Billy Hamilton’s ridiculous 4 SB game and you could not have won a GPP without him last night!
I absolutely love looking at SB matchups for GPPs because it’s something most DFSers seem to ignore. If you find a juicy matchup, you can have a high upside play that no one else has. We do all this analysis on the Daily Fantasy Winners Forum for you, but just so you can do this analysis as well, let me show you how it’s done.
When looking for a SB matchup, we’re looking for two things:
1) The opposing pitcher’s ability to hold runners and WHIP.
2) The opposing catchers ability to catch base stealers.
How do we find this info? Let me direct you to fangraphs.com once again. If you scroll down towards the bottom of the player page to the Advanced Fielding table, you should see the stat rSB. rSB is a measure of how good against SB a player is, a positive number indicating a strong defensive player and a negative number indicating a poor defensive player.
So what did Danny see in Hamilton last night?
Well, for starters, the Reds moved him back to lead-off from the bottom of the order, a huge boost for fantasy production. But in terms of matchup, he was up against 6’7″ Mike Pelfrey, a player with a -3 rSB in his career. And Pelfrey’s battery mate was Kurt Suzuki, who has a -13 rSB over the past 3 seasons, good for worst in all of baseball. This was one of the best SB matchups a player could have, so when we saw Hamilton go wild on the basepaths, we weren’t surprised. I had him in every FanDuel lineup!
It’s a big tournament day on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I’m particularly excited for FanDuel’s $300 Mega Monster, but if that’s too rich for your blood, DraftKings has a $33 Slugfest that will award $25,000 for 1st.
Fanduel Pitcher Analysis (UPDATED):
Edit: I just discovered Sonny Gray was scratched, which should significantly change ownership levels. I’ll make sure to update this before 3:00 today with new thoughts on ownership.
With Sonny Gray out, I think Sale is the clear #1 here (Bovada.lv projects him a 9.5 SOs!). The Cardinals also put out a relatively high strikeout lineup, so if he ends up going 6-8 innings here he should certainly hit 10. He’s definitely a great play, but I’m not sure he’s worth the likely ownership he’s going to get. There’s a couple choices I particularly like for GPPs.
Mad Max’s GPP Specials:
Lance Lynn ($9,100) – I’m really not sure what Lynn’s ownership will be tonight in the Monster, my guess is around 15% but I could see it as high as 25% and as low as 10%. I love Lynn for three reasons here: 1) He’s underpriced ($900 DIFF between DraftKings and Fanduel) 2) He’s at home in a solid matchup (and Sale as a hitter is awful) and 3) He’s the perfect Sale fade! If Lynn gets the win here instead of Sale, that’s an 8 point swing. I especially love Lynn in low stakes tournaments, as amateurs will load up on Sale due to recent performance and aren’t knowledgeable enough to use Lynn. His 9.42 K/9 and 2.84 ERA is on par with some of the top pitchers in baseball.
Danny Salazar ($8,900) – This is one which will change depending on the lineup. Salazar is a rare righty who actually strikes out lefties significantly more than righties. Some MLB teams seem to realize this, the Tigers lead off Rajai Davis instead of Anthony Gose last time they faced Salazar, and I don’t think the Rays are a team that will overlook this fact. If they decide to go lefty heavy though, it actually raises Salazar’s upside. And, although Salazar possesses a 4.06 ERA, his xFIP is 2.81, ridiculously low for an AL pitcher. He legitimately is one of the best in baseball.
DraftKings Pitcher Analysis:
I think ownership is all over the place here with Sonny Gray scratched. I think players will want to pay up for Sale, but who will they use to counteract his high cost? Gerrit Cole has a solid price and may be worth it, his upside is up there with the best of them. Keuchel doesn’t have a ton of upside, but a solid price and he does get to face a couple lefties.
Only for the Bold:
Justin Verlander ($7,500) – You may think I’m a bit crazy here, but hear me out. Verlander has been bad in his first two starts, but those came against the low-strikeout Indians at home, and a lefty heavy Yankees team on the road. Tonight, he gets a righty heavy Pirates lineup. And as bad as a rap he gets from his performance last year, he still had a 4.19 xFIP which is about on par with an AL pitcher at this price point. But unlike other pitchers at this price point, Verlander has some complete game potential here. Even in a awful game against the Yankees, Verlander threw 114 pitches and went 6.2 innings. If he does manage to keep the Pirates bats in check, he could easily go 7-8+ innings. Playing Verlander here may feel a little wrong but I don’t think the stats say the same.
FanDuel Hitter Special
Dee Gordon ($3,000) – I could say something catchy here like, “Looking for the next Billy Hamilton, look no further!” (I’ll save it for twitter) Comparing Gordon to Hamilton here as both are ridiculously speedy lead-off guys. But this play has much more to do with matchup more than anything. Vogelsong and Posey are both solid against SBs, but with a player like Gordon, getting on base is just as important since he’s going to decide to steal regardless of the matchup. What Gordon does have here is a great pitch type matchup, he’s much better against off-speed pitches and Vogelsong is one of the most off-speed heavy throwers in baseball. History backs this up, Gordon has a .344 average in his career against Vogelsong. Gordon probably isn’t going to steal 4 bases tonight, but he has the upside to reach 10 points and his price is absurd for a player of his caliber.
DraftKings Hitter Special
Lucas Duda ($3,400) – Also a play due to pitch type, Duda has loved Sinkers in his career and Kyle Hendricks is a pure sinkerballer. His price is exceptional tonight and I doubt he gets over 5% ownership. I don’t really love a Mets stack here though, but he could be a good fit as part of an Orioles stack, as 1B Chris Davis is capable of awful, GPP killing games. I also don’t mind him as a money saver in a Blue Jays stack replacing Edwin Encarnacion.
I’m going to list off three stacks here. One popular one, one slightly under-the-radar one, and one completely off-the-radar, ridiculous one. Remember the principles of good GPP lineups, if you have a crazy stack, go chalk in other areas. If you have a popular stack, make sure it’s unique in other areas!
Highly owned but Great:
Toronto Blue Jays (Must Play:
The Blue Jays absolutely crush lefties, and that’s what they get here going against young Eduardo Rodriguez.
Make sure to include Russell Martin in your stacks, he’s crushed 4-seam fastballs in his career and Rodriguez throws a ton of them. Edit: Russell Martin not in the lineup
Houston Astros (Must Play: George Springer)
Ok, this isn’t terribly under-the-radar but I do think the Astros are awesome here. There are some quality prices in his stack in Springer, Gattis, Domingo Santana, and Luis Valbuena (I love Altuve and Correa too, their prices just aren’t fantastic), and they have a solid run projections at around 4. Make sure George Springer is in your stack, he hits 4-seam fastballs and curveballs very well and those are two of the only pitches Duffy throws.
Miami Marlins (Must Play: Dee Gordon)
Don’t get me wrong, the Marlins are not a good hitting team at all. But, the value in this stack is just exceptional. I’ve already explained why I love Dee Gordon ($3,000 on FanDuel), but we also have Christian Yelich ($2,800) and Marcell Ozuna ($2,300) at prices much too low for players of their caliber. Finishing off your stack with Justin Bour ($2,300) is probably a good idea as well, Ryan Vogelsong is one of the most HR prone pitchers in baseball. I especially like this stack since Vogelsong will actually get some ownership tonight.
Good luck tonight everyone and see you again on Friday!View all posts by Max J Steinberg