Mad Max: 5 Bold Predictions
Since I started regularly writing my Mad Max articles, they seem to have gotten a lot less “Mad” and a lot more “This is proper strategy and it’s actually not that crazy.” Today I’m in a bit of a crazy mood, so I’m going to give you 5 bold predictions that will help you win big in GPPs tonight. Keep in mind this advice is for GPPs only, these predictions are way too risky to follow in cash games.
Mad Max Prediction #1: The Blue Jays Will Score Less Than 3 Runs Tonight.
I was listening to sports talk radio in Las Vegas today, and they were talking about betting the Blue Jays. Apparently the over/under had started at 9.5, but the sharps had bet it down to 9. They we’re absolutely incredulous. How could a Blue Jays team, who has crushed lefties this season, be bet down by the good sports-bettors?
But I actually see quite a few reasons to be low on the Blue Jays tonight. They’re facing a lefty, sure, but a pretty damn good one at that. Holland is projected by Steamer at a 3.84 FIP despite playing at a really great hitters park, and in his last start he performed very well at home. Our pitcher analysis loved him, his first pitch strike % was up there with elite pitchers like Stephen Strasburg. The Blue Jays have also been running quite hot vs lefties, and I just don’t think their numbers are sustainable. I think it’s easy to say to yourself “The Blue Jays are facing a lefty I don’t recognize, stack them!” But I think you’ll get burned tonight. And none of the Blue Jays are priced exceptionally well, with Josh Donaldson being borderline unplayable at his price.
Mad Max Prediction #2: Mike Foltynewicz Breaks 20 DraftKings Points.
It’s not like the stuff isn’t there, Foltynewicz is a young flame-thrower with a good change-up and has the makeup of an elite pitcher. His problem, however, has been location. His first pitch strike % hovers at around 60%, which gets him into bad counts and makes his pitches a lot more hittable when he’s forced to throw in the zone. While nothing suggests he’s been locating any better recently, I think the Rockies are a perfect cure for Folty’s problems. There swing % and outside the zone swing % is bottom 5 in baseball (they swing a lot) and that’s not even taking into consideration their lineup without Troy Tulowitzki. If the Rockies can help Folty’s location issues by swinging at pitches outside the zone, he can use his stuff more effectively and could be in for a fantastic game. I’m especially drawn to his pricetag: only $4,600 on DraftKings!
Mad Max Prediction #3: The Indians are the Highest Scoring Team Tonight.
This has a lot to do with their match-up. Wily Peralta has been a solid pitcher for the Brewers in the past, but his velocity has been down this year and he’s been particularly bad in his last 5 starts with a 4.97 xFIP. The Indians are back to full strength and their lineup full of power hitting lefties is a disaster for Peralta, who has large wOBA splits and has never been good against left-handers. He’ll be facing 7 lefties tonight.
On top of all this, Wily Peralta’s outside-the-zone style (his first pitch strike % in below 60%) is awful against a very patient team like the Indians, who swing the 3rd least out of any team in baseball. He should get into some poor counts and his fastballs will become a lot more hittable. I particular like Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, and Lonnie Chisenhall’s prices on DraftKings.
Mad Max Prediction #4: Mike Trout Will Hit a HR
Trout has been struggling pretty badly recently which has caused his FanDuel price to drop all the way down to $4,600. But I like Trout to go deep tonight for several reasons. First, he’s playing in a great hitters park in Detroit. Second, he’s facing a very HR prone pitcher in Alfredo Simon. And third, Trout actually hits righties better than lefites, and he’s facing a pretty neutral platoon split pitcher. In Trout’s only previous game against Simon, he went 3/4 with two doubles.
Mad Max Prediction #5: Josh Tomlin Gets Wrecked
Tomlin is a low-salary guy with a lot of buzz, especially since he’s facing a Brewer’s team that has been really, really bad hitting lately. But I think this is a sneaky bad match-up for Tomlin. Tomlin is a soft thrower who doesn’t make many bats miss, but racks up some strikeouts by pounding the strike zone early and going outside the zone is good counts. The reason the Brewers strike out often is mostly due to their tendency to swing, their swing % is the highest in baseball. So when they encounter a pitcher who throws hittable pitches in the zone often, they should put the ball in play a lot. I don’t expect many strikeouts for Tomlin and if those balls fall in, he could get chased early in the game. He’s also incredibly HR prone, and the Brewers have quite a few power hitters. Even if he doesn’t struggle early, I actually don’t think he has great upside unless he goes 8+ innings.View all posts by Max J Steinberg