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NFL Snap Count Trends Week 13

Playing time is one of the most important factors to consider for DFS football. More playing time means more fantasy points because of a players increased opportunity to gain key statistics, especially for RBs. In this article, I’m going to breakdown RB snap counts for Week 12 to help guide our picks for Week 13. Snap count data can be found on Football Outsiders.

 

 

The player who immediately sticks out is Shaun Draughn. Draughn played 100% of snaps last week. With 91% the previous week, he’s clearly a 90%+ snap projection this week if Carlos Hyde continues to be out.

I had never actually seen Draughn play until last week. He’s quite small, the 6 foot even, 205 pound listing seems very generous, as Draughn reminds me of a Darren Sproles type. He’s a protypical pass catching back who has been quite active in the 49ers pass game. His downsides is obvious, he plays on arguably the worst offense in the league. He also is probably not too much of a TD threat because of his stature. Draughn only scored 3 TDs on nearly 200 rushing attempts in college, and only has 2 career NFL TDs. Nonetheless, at his price he looks quite solid, and his production in the passing game should carry a lot of value, especially against a bad Bears defense.

Deangelo Williams is always 90%+ snaps with Le’Veon Bell out for the season. I really like him this week against a banged up Colts defense. They are without their best run stopper Jerell Freeman this week, who has a grade 2 hamstring strain. Williams has been quiet the past few weeks but we’ve seen his huge upside this season already. If Roethlisberger is out, he should thrive, but he should do well with anyone at QB.

Lesean McCoy looks even more appealing this week because it seems like his backup Karlos Williams is not going to play. This means 85% of snaps is basically a guarantee, and McCoy may even get some red zone looks. The matchup with Houston this week is solid. Houston is one of the fastest paced teams in the league, so even though their defense is good they still give up a lot of fantasy points. I like McCoy a lot this week.

I think Charcandrick West will be back this week, but given how well Spencer Ware has done in his absence, it’s easy to imagine they will be in a time share this week, making both pretty much unplayable.

Darren McFadden continues to get a lot of snaps. Against a bad Redskins defense, I think he’s a good play this week as I have said for every week he has started. Hopefully this week that will actually pay off. This is arguably the best matchup McFadden has had as a starter for the Cowboys.

Mark Ingram is not in play for me this week against a really good Panthers defense. But his elevated snap counts with Khiry Robinson out for this season is really encouraging. In some better matchups down the stretch, he should be an elite play.

Antonio Andrews is starting to get a much bigger workload for the Titans. I think he’s a huge sleeper in general, but probably isn’t worth a play this week against a really good Jaguars run defense. ProFootballFocus has been rating him well this season, so he may be in for some good future weeks like Ingram.

Jonathan Stewart, without question, is a solid to great play this week against the amazingly bad Saints defense. Latavius Murray should be good in a better matchup, but seems bad against a really good Chiefs run defense.

That’s it for this week. Good luck with your lineups.

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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