Top Plays for Thursday Contests in Week 11
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Mark Sanchez ($6,900 on FanDuel, $5,800 on DraftKings)
If Fanduel and DraftKings released their salaries after the Monday night game, Sanchez’s salary would certainly be much higher on both sites. But they released the salaries prior to the game, which means Sanchez is underpriced this week. Many daily fantasy players were skeptical that Sanchez would perform well, even in Chip Kelly’s offense, but proved them wrong with 2 TDs and 300+ yards in a blowout. Carolina is a weak defense, but I actually like him against Green Bay even more. Las Vegas projects Green Bay as 6 point favorites, which means the Eagles will likely have to play catch-up in this game. LeSean Mccoy is still ineffective which means Sanchez will have to carry the load. Even if Sanchez had a miserable game on the field, he’ll still be throwing 35 or even 40+ times and in this fast paced offense that means a lot of yards and a TD or two. And if the Eagles are up in this game, we saw from last week in Carolina that Philadelphia won’t stop passing even with a huge lead. It seems almost outrageous to say, but I would be shocked if Sanchez didn’t have 300 yards in this game. And I actually feel like his usage won’t be that high, with good low salary options at RB and WR and great options at high salary QB, I think he’s under 20% used which is just ridiculous given how good a value Sanchez is.
Honorable Mention: Cam Newton ($7,800 on FanDuel, $6,700 on DraftKings) – I usually don’t write anything for my honorable mention players, but I felt compelled in the case of Newton. Yes, he’s been struggling, but it’s mostly been due to his banged up and absolutely atrocious offensive line. The Falcons are a perfect matchup for Newton, since they have absolutely no pass rush to speak of which should give Newton plenty of time to throw… and run.
Jeremy Hill ($6,500 on FanDuel, $4,500 on DraftKings)
Everyone is expecting this game to be a huge blowout, but I don’t think that stops Hill from exceeding his value. Cincinnati is projected to score about 22 points and Hill is a big back who will get almost all the goal-line carries in this game. Even in his disappointing game against the Browns, he still averaged almost 5 yards a carry. And although he’s only caught 1 ball in his last two games, he’s actually a capable pass catcher. New Orleans defense is actually pretty bad against the run, they rank in the bottom half of teams in fantasy points allowed to RB and 29 out of 32 in weighted rush defense according to Football Outsiders. Hill is a safer play than both Shane Vereen and C.J. Anderson at the same price point on FanDuel. I project him at 16 carries, 75-80 yards, 2 rec for 20 yards, and .75 TDs, a great value at $6,500.
Honorable Mention: Mark Ingram ($8,000 on Fanduel, $6,200 on DraftKings)
Jordan Matthews ($5,500 on FanDuel, $4,500 on DraftKings)
Matthews has clearly built some rapport with Mark Sanchez in practice working with the 2nd team offense, and it showed against Carolina where Matthews broke out for 140 yards and 2 TDs. We were high on Matthews at the beginning of the season, but the rookie started out very slowly. He had been showing a little more the last few weeks and I’m buying this breakout game. He only plays half of snaps, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he disappoints a little bit this week simply because of the lack of opportunities, but at $5,500, with this talent, in this offense, it would be foolish to pass him up.
Honorable Mention: Odell Beckham Jr. ($7,400 on FanDuel, $6,000 on DraftKings)
Rob Gronkowski ($8,100 on Fanduel, $7,900 on DraftKings)
Gronkowski may be the safest play of the week, The Colts are bottom 5 in fantasy points allowed to TE and 29 out of 32 in DVOA vs TE according to Football Outsiders. The Colts offense has basically been unstoppable this season and I feel New England is going to be playing catch up all game. Gronkowski is Tom Brady’s favorite target red zone or otherwise and it seems likely he’ll have a dominant game for the 3rd straight week.
Honorable Mention: Jimmy Graham ($7,900 on FanDuel, $7,000 on DraftKings)
Nick Novak ($4,500)
Novak’s price is criminal, he’s one of the best kickers in the league, at home in good weather, and San Diego is a huge favorite. This is the best min-priced kicker you’ll come across all year.
Honorable Mention: Adam Vinatieri ($4,900)
Washington Redskins ($5,000 on FanDuel, $2,800 on DraftKings)
This sounds a little crazy, but I actually love the Redskins D this week. The Skins get Barry Cofield back, who’s arguably their best pass rusher on their D-line outside of Jason Hatcher. And Tampa Bay actually is projected in the bottom 3 by Vegas for points scored this week. The most consistent way to predict defensive performance is to look at the team who will get the most sacks, and the Bucs allowed a terrible Atlanta pass rush to sack Mccown 4 times. The Redskins great pass rush should fair much better, and Mccown is bound to throw a couple of Ints. I love the Redskins in GPPs especially since they’ll be played very little by the field.
Honorable Mention: Denver Broncos ($5,200 on FanDuel, $3,000 on DraftKings)View all posts by Max J Steinberg