Target Watch Week 10
Hey guys, I’m back from my WSOP Main Event hiatus and ready to get back in the swing of things. I’m starting things off by looking at targets from week 10 and trying to use them to predict production in week 11.
Davante Adams (21 Targets) – Well, this one is interesting. Aaron Rodgers threw 61 times in this game, but 21 targets is still over 1/3 of total targets. Obviously, 21 targets is a lot, but Adams has never really had a high catch percentage, so it’s not a shock he only hauled in 10 of those targets. But, it is encouraging to see this coming off an 11 target week 9. My feelings on this is Adams is slightly underpriced, enough to be in play in GPPs against a tough Minnesota D, but I’m not in love with him.
Larry Fitzgerald (15 Targets) – Fitzgerald has been a stud all season and last week was no exception. Despite the Bengals solid D, Vegas projects the Cardinals to be productive on offense with a point projection of about 26, and with such good prices at RB and QB, he’s definitely in play this weekend.
Kamar Aiken (14 Targets) – Since Steve Smith went down, Aiken has been very productive with 6 catches for 62 yards in week 8 and 7 catches for 73 yards in week 10. He hasn’t scored a TD, but he’s 6’2″ and shouldn’t have trouble getting looks in the red-zone. Week 11 has him in a really tough match-up vs the Rams, but his price is much too low on both FanDuel and DraftKings to leave him out of our lineups completely. I like him.
Antonio Brown (14 Targets) – Coming off a 23 target game in week 9, Brown followed it up with 14 targets and a monster game in week 10. The reason for this huge boost in production? Ben Roethlisberger is back for one, but it’s also the absence of Le’Veon Bell which has the Steelers focused back on the passing game. Pittsburgh is on a BYE, but I really do feel like Brown is in play even against Richard Sherman in week 12.
Mike Evans (13 Targets) – With Vincent Jackson out last week, Jameis Winston simply had no one else to go to besides Evans. Jackson is likely out in week 11, so we can expect more of the same. Evans is in an awesome situation against the Eagles this week. As 5.5 point underdogs, the Bucs should throw the ball a lot, and against the Eagles hurry up they should get in a ton of plays. Evans is an awesome play in cash, especially on DraftKings, as I can’t imagine a scenario where Evans has less than 7 receptions, and if he has 12+ it wouldn’t be a surprise.
Ones to Watch
Travis Kelce (9 Targets) – Most DFSers will be using Charcandrick West this week, and for good reason against an awful Chargers run D. But I think Kelce could have a big game here as the #1 option in the passing game, and he has great reverse correlation with West. I think using Kelce in your non-West lineups is a great move for GPPs.
Dez Bryant (12 Targets) – With Tony Romo back this week, these targets should turn into much better production than Bryant had with Matt Cassel. In a week where there are such cheap RBs and QBs, I really don’t mind taking a risk with Bryant here despite his price. We know he’s capable of big games.
Danny Amendola (11 Targets) – Julian Edelman is out, and it really looks like the stars are aligning for Amendola here. 11 Targets is very, very encouraging and Amendola is a perfect player to step into the Edelman role for the Pats. I really like him this week, he’s a fantastic cash game play.
Eric Decker (11 Targets) – This was Decker’s 3rd straight week with a great game, and those targets suggest these type of games are going to keep coming. He gets a cake match-up with Houston this week and still is under-priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. And by the way, while Brandon Marshall only had 3 catches, he did have 10 targets. I think he’s a sneaky play this week for GPPs.
Michael Floyd (9 Targets) – Floyd is on fire in his last 2 games, and his salary is still way too low on both FanDuel and DraftKings. But I think he’s actually a reasonable fade candidate in week 11. First off, Floyd plays on the outside, and WRs on the outside are prone to more variance than any other position. He also has a tough match-up vs the Bengals, it’s not a fantastic spot for him. And lastly, I feel Amendola (and maybe even Stevie Johnson) is a better play than Floyd at a similar price and with so many cheap RBs we don’t really need to use two low priced WRs. Floyd definitely is under-priced but I like finding fade candidates in weeks like this where there will be so many highly-owned players. To win a GPP, we need to make a bold move.
Edit: looks like Michael Floyd may not even play. Doesn’t make sense to fade him anymore.View all posts by Max J Steinberg