Sked’s GPP Plays 2/3
Thanks to the Super Bowl last night, we have 11 games to choose from on Monday night. And since it’s a Monday, get your League Pass ready to follow all the action.
There are a lot of big GPP events and I’ll share my picks this evening. As you’ll see, there are three value plays I particularly like in terms of low salary plays to start off. And since they are all under $4,000, that opens the door to play several of the top-salary players, while still providing great value potential.
As usual for my lineups, all salaries are reflected from DraftKings.
PG Tony Wroten $3,900 – First of all, Michael Carter-Williams is a GTD (Game-Time Decision). Therefore, if MCW does play, this pick goes out the window. But I’m going on a hunch that he won’t play, since MCW’s shoulder has been a nagging injury and the 76ers are better off losing for draft position. Now the 76ers are 11-point underdogs, which isn’t a good thing. However, his $3,900 salary is tremendous value regardless. He put up 28.25 FPTS as a starter against the Pistons on Saturday and had an off night shooting. Also, with Deron Williams back in the starting lineup, the Nets are much worse at FPTS allowed to PGs than opposed to Shaun Livingston. I get that Livingston is still starting, but he’s at SG and with his 6’7″ height, there’s a much greater chance he guards James Anderson or even Joe Johnson.
SG Nick Calathes $3,000 – I don’t get how DraftKings left him at minimum salary. Incase you missed it, Mike Conley is out and Calathes went for 36.75 FPTS against the Bucks. Tonight, Calathes goes against the Thunder, which isn’t good since the Thunder are 8.5-point favorites. But three things are in Calathes favor: 1. Calathes is minimum salary. 2. OKC gives up the fifth-most FPTS to PGs and the second-most in the last 15 games (relevant with Westbrook out). 3. With Conley and Tony Allen out, Memphis’ backcourt is limited.
SF Marvin Williams $3,300 – Marvin Williams was entered back into the starting lineup Saturday and put up 29 FPTS against the weak frontcourt of the Clippers. He also had 35.75 FPTS in just 25 minutes against the Kings. Tonight, the Jazz face the Raptors as 4.5-point underdogs at home. The Raptors also have a decent frontcourt defense, but again, for $3,300, it’s an easy value play.
PF Blake Griffin $9,300 – The Nuggets are one of the worst teams against PFs. Griffin went for 24 points, 16 rebounds, four assists, a steal and a block in the previous meeting. In that meeting, faried barely played because he suffered an injury early in the game. Still, Faried is a poor defender. The Clippers are 1.5-point favorites with an over/under of 216. Worst-case scenario – 40 FPTS. Best-case scenario – 60+ FPTS.
C Dirk Nowitzki $7,800 – When Dirk Nowitzki first started going on a terror, it looked as if he was just taking advantage of bad frontcourt defenses and favorable matchups. That’s not the case. He is significantly more involved in the offense and is looking like the Dirk during his NBA Finals run. He looks more healthy than he has the past couple seasons and his chemistry with the rest of the teammates has certainly increased. Regardless of the opponent, $7,800 is too low for him. But the Mavs are at home against the Cavs as -9.5 favorites, and they are a huge mess giving up a ton of FPTS inside as of late.
G D.J. Augustin $6,200 – The Bulls and Kings line has moved from the Bulls -2 to PK in the last couple hours since DeMarcus Cousins has been upgraded to probable. The Bulls should be a little more perimeter-oriented on offense, but the Kings allow the sixth-most FPTS to PGs. Augustin’s FPTS output as a starter should give him a salary around $7,000 and he has a high correlation to his opponent.
F DeMar DeRozan $6,900 – This pick I was against at first since a lot of people will be recently biased with his 62 FPTS last time out. But DeRozan’s salary took such a decrease from his injury that he’s someone who needs to be played until it goes back up. DeRozan was averaging over 40 FPTS for the first 13 games of January. The Raptors are 4.5 favorites over the Jazz tonight and Utah gives up the fourth-most points to SGs in the last 15 games.
UTIL John Wall $9,300 – The Wizards are 1-point favorites at home against the Trail Blazers. With the over/under at 208, this line has been trending in the Wizards’ favor, but most of the public money is on Portland. This tells me the Wizards are a good bet tonight. Plus, they also defeated the Thunder on Friday night. Portland gives up the third-most FPTS to PGs. Wall is consistent, but also has tremendous upside with his points, assists and steals.
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