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The Redskins Awful Dual Threat QB Track Record

The staff at DFW really likes Colin Kaepernick this week, for a lot of different reasons. Kaepernick was a top 10 fantasy QB last year, has gotten unlucky with running TDs this year (he has none), and has an underrated supporting cast.  The 49ers are also projected to score 27 points, which is 6th in the league this week. Even further, the matchup with the Redskins on paper looks very good for Kaepernick, but when you look at the data it’s obvious that it’s even better than it looks. Not only are the Redskins a very bad defense, but extremely bad against dual threat QBs.

This year is the most glaring evidence in support of the Redskins ineptitude against running QBs. Russell Wilson torched the Skins in Week 5, throwing for over 200 yards and 2 TDs, as well as a whopping 122 yards rushing and another TD, for a grand total of 34.2 fantasy points, easily best in the league that week.

Unfortunately, the Seahawks are the only team with a true dual threat QB the Redskins have faced this season. But the defense led by Jim Haslett has had relatively consistent scheming and personnel since 2012, so looking as far back as the past two seasons seems reasonable.

My labeling of “dual threat QB” is anyone who had 8 or more rushing attempts in their previous matchups. I found 5 games in the past two seasons:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201311170phi.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201311250was.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201309090was.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201211040was.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201301060was.htm

The QBs in these games were Nick Foles, Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Kaepernick himself. The average stats for these QBs were: 224 yards passing, 1.4 passing TDs, 45 rushing yards, and 0.6 rushing TDs, for an very solid 22.68 fantasy points per game, just below Aaron Rodger’s per game numbers this year.

This year the Redskins secondary and linebackers are much worse than they were in 2012 and 2013, so I think we see Kaepernick perform similarly to Wilson’s Week 5 game. At only 7400, Kaepernick is a huge bargain with very high upside. Play him a lot this week.

 

 

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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