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Daily Fantasy Analysis: Previous Divisional Matchups

A great way to predict player performance is to look at how teams have done in a previous divisional matchup. Most teams in the same division have already played each other this year, so we have the opportunity to analyze very relevant data here in hopes of seeing how each team may gameplan for each other.

Jaguars @ Colts

Previous Matchup (Colts @ Jaguars) Colts 44 – Jags 17

The Colts are 13.5 point favorites this week, so looking at this box score is just a fantastic insight into what may happen this weekend since the previous matchup was also a huge blowout. Here are some relevant performances:

– Andrew Luck 370 yards 4 TDs
– T.Y. Hilton 80/5/0
– Reggie Wayne 4/62/0
– Fleener, Allen, Nicks, and Bradshaw all had 1 TD each
– TRich was mediocre but did catch 3 balls for 23 yards.

 

– Allen Hurns and Cecil Shorts each had a TD.
– Blake Bortles came in mid game and had a solid 223, 2 TD 2 INT game and some rushing yards.

Thoughts: As we have seen in the past with the Giants game, the Bengals game, and this Jaguars game from the beginning of the year, the Colts are not shy about continuing to throw even when it’s a complete blowout. With Ahmad Bradshaw out, there’s no reason to think the Colts won’t continue this trend. I like Luck, Hilton, Wayne, and Fleener a lot (Assuming Allen is out). On the other side of the ball, I think Bortles in an under-the-radar GPP play, and given how the Colts seem to struggle against the run, Denard Robinson seems like a solid pick as well.

 

DAL @ NYG

Previous Matchup (NYG @ DAL) Giants 21 – Cowboys 31

Luckily, this game came right after the Victor Cruz season ending injury which means we get to see how the Giants receiving core does as they are now. Unluckily, Rashad Jennings was out, so we don’t get much insight there. Here are the relevant performances:

 

– ODB Jr. had 2 TDs on 4 catches for 34 yards. This was his 3rd game of the season.
– Larry Donnell had 7 catches for 90 yards but lost 2 fumbles.
– Rueben Randle was the most highly targeted Giant with 9 targets, catching 6 for 74 yards.

– Dez Bryant had 9 catches for 151 yards.
– Tony Romo had a very efficient game and finished with 279 yards and 3 TDs.
– Demarco Murray had a solid 128 yard game with a TD.

Thoughts: It’s encouraging to see that Odell Beckham had 2 TDs in this game, he’s improved so much already this season. If he gets a TD in this game he will surely hit value. Andre Williams was ineffective, but I think Jennings has more success, he’s a better runner and he’s at home. I said that Rueben Randle was an under-the-radar play in my target watch article, and this reinforces my belief. Clearly, Donnell is a good play as well given the Cowboys have been brutal against the TE this season. On the Cowboys side of the ball, Dez Bryant seems primed for a big game especially now that the Giants are so thin at CB. Demarco Murray has been Mr. Dependable this season, and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to rack up yards and TDs.

 

Kansas City @ Oakland

Previous Matchups (2013)

KC 56 – Oak 31

Oak 7 – KC 24

 

Thoughts: It’s hard not to love Jamaal Charles against Oakland tonight. He racked up 7 TDs (That is not a typo) in two games against Oakland last year and the Raiders run D has been one of the worst in the NFL this year. Bovada has Charles as a 2:1 favorite to score a TD. Oakland’s roster was so different last year on offense, that it’s hard to assess anything on their side.

 

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Previous Matchup (Min @ GB) Min 10 – GB 42

This game was a blowout from the start, with Aaron Rodgers passing it only 17 times with his team up 28-0 but the end of the 1st half. The Vikings started Christian Ponder in this game. Here are the relevant stats:

– Eddie Lacy crushed for 13/105/2. He also caught 3 balls for 27 yards.
– Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson each scored a TD but because of the blowout there was very little passing and neither racked up many catches or yardage.
– The Vikings did nothing well.

 

Thoughts: This game was the start of Eddie Lacy’s breakout this year, in his past 4 games he’s scored greater than 15 FanDuel points. The Vikings have been awful against the run this year, it would surprise me if Lacy didn’t have a good game. I think he’s one of the top plays at RB this week. While Rodgers, Nelson, and Cobb didn’t have great games, I expect this one to go a little differently with Green Bay on the road this time and I think Rodgers throws 25-30 times, which means Cobb and Nelson should be back to normal performances. Davante Adams also had a TD in this game, it’s possible they were exploiting a matchup here, he’s on my GPP radar.

 

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Previous Matchup (Bills @ Jets) Bills 43 – Jets 23

Geno Smith was benched in this game after throwing 4 INTs, and Michael Vick actually kept the Jets in this game in the 1st half, it turned into a blowout in the 2nd half however. Here are the relevant stats:

– Sammy Watkins had only 3 catches, but turned them into 157 yards and a TD. Rboert Woods also had a TD and 50 yards.
– Kyle Orton threw 4 TDs, taking advantage of great field position.

– Michael Vick didn’t have a good game throwing, but did rush 8 times for 69 yards.
– Decker and Harvin were targeted a total of 22 times in this game but neither were effective.
– Chris Ivory rushed for 2 TDs.

Thoughts: Michael Vick has actually been an ok fantasy performer the last few weeks and I like how effective he was running in this game. He should be on your GPP radar. The Bills have not been practicing this week because of the snow, I’m curious to see how this effects them. Las Vegas Sportsbooks have them as 4 point favorites but see this as a very low scoring game. I think all players in this game are strictly GPP plays only, and you may have to avoid them given the possibility of a rescheduling of the game. Avoid them in Thursday contests entirely.

View all posts by Max J Steinberg
Max J Steinberg

About the Author

Max J Steinberg Max Steinberg is a professional poker player and a top Daily Fantasy player who uses his creativity and mathematical abilities he cultivated as a poker player to win money on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He already has several big tournament scores to his name including the Victiv Bowl and countless MLB Monster wins. Follow him on twitter @maxjsteinberg.

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