NFL Week 9: Pass and Run Share Picks
I love using pass percentage projections, pass share, and run share in our Sportsbook Projections tool to make picks for DFS NFL. The tool is good at reaffirming the best plays at each position, as well as helps point out some sneaky plays from surprising pass percentages or point shares. Here are my picks this week based on those statistics.
Derek Carr (7000 FD, 5500 DK)
Oakland is 4th in projected pass percentage at 68.61%, and 8th in pass point share, yet Carr is almost min salary on DraftKings. 85% of Oakland’s TDs this season have come in the passing game, which makes sense since they don’t have a quality running game. I like Oakland’s whole offense around Carr. They have two underrated WRs in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, they have an underrated pass catching weapon in Marcel Reece, and their offensive line is great in pass protection. I think Oakland’s west coast system will thrive against a really bad pass defense like Pittsburgh.
Tyrod Taylor (7200 FD, 5300 DK)
Taylor has been out for awhile, so people may forget how good Taylor has been this year as a QB. Taylor has extremely good rushing numbers that make him a top fantasy QB even if he isn’t terrific as a passer. The matchup against Miami at home is above average, and he’s already had one really good game against the Dolphins earlier this season. The Bills point projections of 23.5 is one the higher side for them.
Mark Ingram (7700 FD, 6500 DK)
The Saints have the highest run point share of any team for the Sunday slate and are facing one of the worst rush defenses in the league in the Titans. Being 8 point favorites at home means we are likely to see the Saints stick to the run, so Ingram should see a big workload. Ingram’s fantasy value has been hindered this season by a running back by committee approach the Saints employ with Ingram and Khiry Robinson as runners, with C.J. Spiller as a pass catcher.
Robinson is now out for the season with a broken right tibia. He left early in last weeks game against the Giants, Without Robinson for some of the game, Ingram saw 64% of snaps, of 7% above his season average. Assuming the other snaps Robinson saw go mostly to Ingram, we should expect around a 70% snap percentage for Ingram in this game at least. If the Saints build a lead and have success running the ball, Ingram should get almost all the touches at RB.
Darren McFadden (6500 FD, 4300 DK)
I have 3 big value plays in mind at RB this week, as there have been huge injury impacts for a few teams. Jeremy Langford should be awesome for the Bears with a huge workload going against one of the worst run defenses in the league, and I like him more than any other RB. Deangelo Williams has a tougher matchup, but should get around 90% of snaps, and any RB with that kind of workload is going to do well. McFadden has got 80% or more snaps in the past two games without Joseph Randle, who was released from the team this week. All of these guys should have top 10 RB salaries but FanDuel and DraftKings have a hard time adjusting price based on injuries.
I chose McFadden here because the point share tool projects Dallas to be 2nd in run percentage and top 10 in run point share. With Matt Cassell at the helm, Dallas has relied heavily on the run even when it wasn’t that successful. Darren McFadden ran the ball 20 times last week despite him only managing 64 yards. He also led receivers in yards and receptions. Dallas’ run blocking is arguably the best in the league so McFadden’s situation really couldn’t get any better. The Eagles defense is one of the best in the league this year, so the matchup is really tough, but McFadden’s price is too good to pass up.
Antonio Brown (8700 FD, 8100 DK)
My top plays this week at WR are Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones. I like all these guys a lot, and it was really hard to pick one over the other. Among those players, Brown’s team has the highest pass point share and projected pass percentage by a good margin.
Antonio has been out of my fantasy awareness the past several weeks with Michael Vick and Landry Jones at QB. Brown’s production went way down without Roethlisberger at the helm. But with his number one QB, Brown has been the best fantasy WR in football by a wide margin. Brown should benefit from Le’Veon Bell’s absence, because the Steelers will be more apt to pass the ball and less passes they do make should be targeted at the RB position. Brown’s numbers the past few weeks have not been nearly as eye popping as Beckham and Jones, so I suspect Brown will be really under owned this week, but I think he’s the best of the bunch.
Allen Hurns (6800 FD, 5300 DK)
Hurns is getting a bit pricey, which makes me hesitant to pick him. Having said that, the Jaguars pass offense looks good this week. They’re only projected score 18 points, but as big underdogs against the best run defense in football, we have them as the 2nd highest projected pass percentage team at 70.94%. Jacksonville is going to pass a lot, and given they have only scored one TD this year rushing the ball, it seems likely all their points are going to come in the passing game. The Jets have one of the best corners in the game in Darrelle Revis, who usually shadows the opposing teams top receiver. In the Jaguars’ case, that is likely to be Allen Robinson. Revis shadowed Amari Cooper last week, leading to really big games from Michael Crabtree and Andre Holmes, and I suspect Hurns is going to get a lot of production with Robinson being blanketed.
Jarvis Landry (7000 FD, 6300 DK)
This is the exact same logic as Hurns, although Landry seems like the better option. Miami has the highest projected pass percentage and has a decent 20.5 point projections. The Bills have some really good top CBs, but their slot CB is the weakest of the bunch, and he should guard Landry the majority of the game.
Stevie Johnson (5400 FD, 3200 DK)
Keenan Allen’s kidney injury which will keep him out for the season is going to have a huge fantasy impact for the Chargers pass catchers. Floyd, Gates, and Johnson should all get a boost, but I suspect Johnson will get the biggest boost of the 3. Johnson is the most similar receiver to Allen, while Floyd is more of a deep route threat at receiver and probably won’t see too many more targets. Chicago’s pass defense is really bad so Stevie seems like a slam dunk. San Diego is 3rd in pass point share this week.
Rob Gronkowski (8500 FD, 8000 DK)
New England has a dominant pass point share this week at 22.39 points going against an awful Redskins defense at home. Frankly, I think Brady, Edelman, LaFell, Blount, and Lewis are all good plays. But the Redskins have some of the worst linebackers and safeties in pass coverage in the league, who will have to guard Gronkowski. My gut says Gronkowski has a 100 yard, multi TD game this week.
However, the Patriots have a gameplan oriented offense, so my suspicion is that we will see less passing than our projections suggest against a below average Redskins run defense. But Gronkowski is still out of this world good.
Delanie Walker (5500 FD, 4200 DK)
Tennessee has a somewhat high estimated pass percentage of 67.69% this week, mostly because Tennessee is an 8 point underdog. New Orleans defense has been bad, but much worse against the pass than anything else. FootballOutsiders ranks them as by far the worst in DVOA at covering TEs, even though they have not allowed a lot of fantasy points to the position. I think we see the Saints give up a ton of points to TEs the rest of the season, and Walker should be the benefactor this week. Tennessee has been a fantasy graveyard this year but the passing matchup does not get any better than the Saints.
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