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NFL Week 10: Pass and Run Share Picks

Last weeks point share picks went quite well in the passing game. Carr threw 4 TDs and every single WR pick, Antonio Brown, Allen Hurns, and Jarvis Landry had very good games. My sleeper TE Delanie Walker managed 2 TDs. Gronk and my RBs let me down, but I still felt good about the picks. Ingram got 88% of snaps last week with Khiry Robinson out, he just didn’t manage a TD and wasn’t that productive. McFadden should continue to be a great pick week in and week out until his price starts rising.

 

I’m going to go position by position again this week, but I’m going to start off with a team that seems like it is going to have multiple fantasy studs this week. Click here to view the point share tool for Week 10.

 

New England Patriots

 

The Patriots have a nearly 31 point projection this week on the road as only 7 point favorites, and have perpetually had a 20+ pass point share this year. The Giants run a ton of no huddle when they fall behind and this week against the Patriots they should fall behind most of the game, meaning the Patriots should get a ton of offensive plays. The Patriots have been incredibly pass heavy this season and have been known to adjust heavily based on their opponent. Versus a good Giants run defense, we may see a more pass heavy game plan than even our projections expect. Tom Brady has become crazy expensive, but he’s worth paying for. Same goes for Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, and Brandon LaFell. I think going two WR/TE stacks with Brady this week seems appropriate.

 

QB

 

Eli Manning (7400 FD, 6700 DK)

 

I like the Giant passing offense a lot because they have a pretty high point projection and are 7 point under dogs. They are 5th in pass point share and estimated pass percentage. Eli Manning has had an odd amount of success in his career against the Patriots. He should pass a very large amount and be productive doing so. His salary is a bit more favorable on FD, as DK has very soft salaries for QBs this week.

 

Blake Bortles (7800 FD, 5600 DK)

 

Everyone likes Blake Bortles this week, so the contrarian part of me doesn’t want to write about him. But I really like him. The matchup is obviously a dream, but the makeup of the Jaguars offense makes Bortles’ expected fantasy points really high. The team has only had one rushing TD this season, so almost all their offensive TDs should come in the passing game. Bortles is also quite a good rusher. Despite having no rushing TDs in his career, Bortles is an Andrew Luck quality runner who should be good for a few rushing TDs a season along with 30-40 rushing yards a game. Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, and Julius Thomas also make up a talented receiving core that make Bortles’ a legit fantasy QB. Very soft salary on DraftKings.

 

RB

 

Todd Gurley (9200 FD, 7300 DK)

 

It’s an obvious play, but St. Louis is one of two teams with an estimated rush percentage over 50%, and Gurley received a season high 78% of snaps last week. Gurley is such an awesome talent against a really bad run defense, it’s hard to imagine him having a bad game.

 

Darren McFadden (7000 FD, 4900 DK)

 

I’m going to continue to think McFadden is a top 5 fantasy RB for the rest of the season as long as his workload stays high. He had some bad variance in the passing game last week, but Dallas ran the ball a ton and McFadden got almost all the carries. Tampa Bay has a solid run defense, but McFadden is still too cheap for his rest of season expectations. Dallas is 2nd in spread adjusted rushing percentage this week.

 

WR

 

Kamar Aiken/Chris Givens

 

I wrote in an article a few weeks ago that Jacksonville’s solid run defense and poor pass defense makes them an underrated matchup for opposing passing offenses. The Ravens just lost their best receiver Steve Smith for the season,  so not only do they have a great matchup in the passing game they also have a positive injury impact for other Raven’s WRs.

Baltimore is 2nd in pass point share this week, which is remarkable given there is not one pass catcher on the team with a salary over 4500. Aiken has done very well when Smith has went down before, and with this matchup I think Aiken is easily the top value play at WR.

Chris Givens is going to slide into a starting role with Smith out, and his speed meshes well with Joe Flacco, who is a great deep ball thrower. Givens could be way under owned, as people haven’t seen his production on paper yet, but I can see the upside. Aiken is the safer bet and better play though.

 

DeAndre Hopkins (8900 FD, 8700 DK)

 

Remember this guy? He hasn’t done crap for awhile, and he probably won’t be on a lot of peoples radar, but I think he’s great this week. Houston runs a very pass heavy, uptempo offense that makes them a good fantasy team to target. As 10.5 point underdogs, we have them as first in estimated pass percentage at 71.73%. The Texans are going to be passing the ball a ton this game, and if they have any success Hopkins should really shine. This is large field tournament only play, as I expect his ownership to be extremely low. There are better high salary plays at WR, such as Julian Edelman.

 

Jarvis Landry (7000 FD, 6700 DK)

 

I’m riding Landry again this week. Philly has been really bad against WRs the past two seasons and I like that Landry with a ton of targets and receptions last week against the Bills. Miami is fifth in estimated pass percentage and should have no success running the ball against a very good Eagles run defense.

 

Green Bay WRs

 

Cobb, Jones, and Adams are all a bit underpriced, as we just haven’t seen the kind of success this year from the Packers passing offense as we are used to, but that seems like variance to me. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the league, so there’s gonna be tons of fantasy points to go around. I really don’t favor any Packer WR over the others. Against a really bad Lions defense, I feel like they all could have great games. James Jones has a ridiculously low 5700 dollar price tag on FanDuel.

 

TE

 

Jordan Reed (5800 FD, 4600 DK)

 

I would brag about how good my Delanie Walker call was last week, but the reality is that Walker had one very lucky long TD that helped him out tremendously. Nonetheless, New Orleans has by far the worst pass defense in the league and I still think they are very vulnerable against TEs. Reed has been a monster this year, and Washington’s pass point share is a season high this week at a shade over 16, 4th overall, while also being in the top 10 in estimated pass percentage. The Redskins passing fantasy points could go a lot of different places, but my best bet is on Reed.

 

Rob Gronkowski (8000 FD/DK)
It really didn’t work out last week, but that just makes me like Gronkowski more because his ownership is going to be even lower. The Giants are a much better matchup this week in terms of fantasy points allowed to TEs than the Redskins, and the Patriots pass the ball an insane amount of the time. They won’t be as run heavy as they were last week, and Gronk should be in line for a really great game. 

Is he the best value? Probably not. But he has a lot more upside than any other TE, which makes him worth playing in my mind.

 

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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