NFL Week 10 Bold Fantasy Predictions

NFL Week 10 is filled with a lot of obvious fantasy plays. There are a ton of great high salary WRs and RBs this week, and there are certainly going to be a lot of highly owned players in the big GPPs on DraftKings and FanDuel. What is going to separate the best lineups apart is going all in on the best of the bunch, hitting on low salary plays, and picking some under the radar guys. Here are 3 bold predictions on who will be the best fantasy performers in Week 10.

Demarco Murray Will Outperform Matt Forte

I’m not going to sit here and say Matt Forte is not going to be great next week, because as long as he doesn’t get injured he probably will. But Demarco Murray is going to be better. The past two weeks Murray has failed to score a TD, even though he gashed the Washington Redskins for 221 total yards, and getting a serviceable 80 yards on 19 carries against a really good Cardinals defense. It’s been awhile since the Cowboys have had a big lead, but that scenario is extremely likely next week when the Cowboys play the Jaguars. Forte’s season has been amazing. I’m not sure if there has ever been a RB who has rushed over 250 times and caught 100 balls in a season, a milestone Forte is on pace to accomplish.  But Murray has been crazy good rushing this season, and is sneakily one of the more prolific pass catching RBs in the game. With a big lead, we should see Murray rush at least 25 times and have at least 4 catches if he keeps up his pace this season. The matchups for both Forte and Murray are superb, but being a 7 point favorite rather than a 7 point dog gives the upper hand to Murray.

Either James Jones, Andre Holmes, or Mychal Rivera will have a 20+ point fantasy day

Oakland has been the 2nd worst scoring offense in football this year, only averaging 16.1 points a game. So there hasn’t been a lot of fantasy production to go around. But this is a dream fantasy matchup for a passing offense. Oakland has been the most pass heavy team this year and Denver has been the most passed on defense IF you account for scoring margin, so our models predict that the Raiders will throw the ball 76% of the time Sunday, and it honestly could be even more. The Broncos run defense is on the Jets level, and I doubt the Raiders even try to run on them. If the Raiders get the 68 snaps and 3 sacks that Broncos opponents have averaged this year, we’re talking about over 48 pass attempts in this game. So with some good luck, we may even see a 60 pass attempt game from Derek Carr. It doesn’t even matter if Carr has a good game, if he passes that much the receptions and yards alone are going to be plenty of fantasy points to go around. My guess is we see James Jones go off, but Holmes and Rivera also could easily have great games too.

Travaris Cadet will score more fantasy points than Mark Ingram

This is where you may think I’ve went insane. The New Orleans Saints are projected to score over 27 points this week against the 49ers, who are one of the best run defenses in the league. We have seen Ingram be incredibly productive in the past two games, with 270 yards rushing and 3 TDs combined. But in both games the Saints built huge leads, and the team is really more pass oriented than it has looked. Travaris Cadet has had over 3 receptions in each game the past 5 weeks, despite barely seeing the field in each of those 5 games. Right now it’s just him and Ingram in the backfield, and with Ingram banged up it wouldn’t seem unreasonable to see 4-5 carries from Cadet. But what I really expect is to see the Saints work a lot more on 2nd and long and 3rd downs than they had in the previous 2 games, and that will mean a lot more snaps for Cadet. Cadet is a Darren Sproles type player, he doesn’t get in the game much but he sees the ball a ton and does a lot with it when he is in the game. Cadet should be one of the biggest sleepers of the week.

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Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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