NFL Point Projection Plays Week 15
Our NFL Point Projection Tool is great at identifying where good plays and good values are in daily fantasy NFL. Our Run Point Share and Pass Point Share metrics uses regression to approximate how teams will score points (running or passing) based on their own tendencies and matchup. The Estimated Pass Play Percentage (EPPP) column gives a great estimate on how often a team will pass in a game, which can be useful for full point PPR sites like DraftKings. The DIFF column measures the difference between a teams average points per game and their projection this week. The higher the DIFF, the more value on the team. Here are the plays the tool suggests for Week 15.
Phillip Rivers (8200 FanDuel, 6200 DraftKings)
It’s close between Rivers, Matt Ryan, and Mark Sanchez, who all are in pass first offenses and are around the same price on both FanDuel and DraftKings. But the Chargers are supposed to pass the ball much more than the other two teams, as they face the Broncos, one of the most high powered offenses and stingiest run defenses in the league. With a 68.5% EPPP, it’s hard to imagine less than 300 yards and 2 TDs from Rivers.
Justin Forsett (7700 FanDuel, 7400 DraftKings)
I don’t love Forsett on DraftKings since his salary is high there relative to the differences in salary structure on FanDuel vs DraftKings, as well as the fact he is not a big PPR threat. But since the Ravens are 14 point favorites, we project them to run the ball a 48% of the time, putting them in the top 5 run percentages this week. Jamaal Charles also looks good for the Chiefs, who are second in Run Point Share. But Forsett and the Ravens lead the way in Run Point Share this week.
T.Y. Hilton (8800 FanDuel, 8000 DraftKings)
Coming in at 2nd on our Pass Point Share projections are the Colts, who are the most pass inclined team in the league. Max showed us in his target watch article the crazy amount of targets Hilton had last week. I also wrote an article a few weeks ago outlining how bad the Texans are against WR1’s, including the 200+ yard game they already gave up to Hilton this year. Hilton’s a very easy play in a great matchup on a pass heavy offense.
Delanie Walker (5300 FanDuel, 4400 DraftKings)
The Titans aren’t at the top of the Pass Point Share column, but they do have a lot going for them this week. First off, they are facing one of the best passing matchups, the Jets, at home. The Jets are the worst defense against Tight Ends according to Football Outsiders. And the Titans’ two best receivers, Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright, are injured. I thought Walker would be good last week but the Titans failed to do anything offensively. The Titans have been awful offensively this year, scoring under 17 points a game. But this week they have a 20.5 point projection, most of which should go to Walker.View all posts by Daniel Steinberg