NBA Daily Fantasy 2/10: Game Previews and Fantasy Breakdowns
With only 5 games on the NBA slate tonight, I decided to put in a little extra effort this morning to give you a quick rundown of every game, instead of just suggesting a few top plays. As always, I’ll make use of all the amazing tools we have on dailyfantasywinners.com. If you haven’t used our tools yet, one I highly recommend is the Fanduel vs Draftkings salary tool. It compares the salaries of players on both sites, taking into account the differences in the scoring systems, and helps you find the best values on DraftKings. It’s invaluable, especially if you play on both sites.
Now, onto the games.
DET @ CHA (-2) (191.5)
Detroit is at full strength (sans Brandon Jennings who’s out for the year), and they draw a poor matchup in Charlotte, a team that doesn’t really struggle in any area defensively. The only player on Detroit I like is Andre Drummond, and strictly as a high risk/high reward GPP play. Charlotte, on the other hand, has several injuries. Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Bismack Biyombo are all out. Al Jefferson is the player that stands out the most here, his price ($7,700) is a bargain and the Pistons have been poor against Centers this season (8th worst in fantasy points allowed to Centers). A more under-the-radar play is Gerald Henderson, who has had 32.75, 39.75, and 40.5 fantasy points in his last 3 games and is way underpriced ($5100) with a $517 True DIFF from FanDuel’s pricing. He’s been filling up the stat sheet with Kemba Walker out and he’s likely to keep this up until Walker is back. Lance Stephenson and Brian Roberts are solid as well, at $4,500 and $4,600 respectively.
Note: Gary Neal was traded to the T-Wolves this morning for Mo Williams. There is no way Williams plays tonight, which opens up minutes for Lance Stephenson, who’s the only backup SG/PG. This also solidifies Roberts, who really doesn’t have a backup and should be guaranteed 35 minutes.
HOU @ PHX (-1.5) (214.5)
It’s not a surprise that these two fast-paced teams are projected to score so much by online sportsbooks. Houston is still without Dwight Howard, but is at full strength aside from that. For Phoenix, Alex Len is doubtful and Eric Bledsoe should be back after missing a game for the birth of his child. Keep an eye on Len, who’s only $3,000 on DraftKings but has been has high as $4,800 at points this season. Bledsoe has averaged 24/6/6 with 3.5 combined steals and blocks in 2 games against Houston this season, and his price is actually not bad at $7,700.
For Houston, James Harden is a great value ($10,300) at a massive $1,247 True DIFF from FanDuel. In such a fast paced game, it’s hard not to love him. He’s averaged 24/9/8.5 and 4.5 combined steals and blocks in two games vs Phoenix this season. Josh Smith has been great off the bench as of late, but I think his price ($6,400) has caught up with him and he’s likely fair value at best.
BKN @ MEM (-11.5) (190)
Both teams are at relatively full strength, and it’s hard to recommend anyone on Brooklyn coming off a back to back against slow-paced Memphis. For Memphis offensively, they face a team in Brooklyn who actually is a mediocre fantasy defense, but doesn’t struggle in one particular area. It’s not a bad matchup for Jeff Green, who’s topped 20 fantasy points in his past 4 games, but I worry about his upside. Marc Gasol’s price is slightly depressed at $7,600, but there may be better options at Center tonight. Both are GPP plays only.
SAC @ CHI (No line)
For Sacramento, Darren Collison is a GTD (Note: Collison is out). If he can’t go, look for Ramon Sessions to continue to play well in his absence. Rudy Gay is a GTD, but my guess would be he doesn’t play given it’s a foot injury and the Kings have no reason to rush him back. Omri Casspi started in Gay’s place in their last game, but only got 20 minutes and didn’t fare to well. But, Casspi has shown in the past that he can put up fantasy points in a hurry and his min-price may be too good to pass up. Demarcus Cousins is also great with a $10,500 salary ($447 True Diff), and his production and usage should improve with Gay out.
The Kings are one of the worst defensive teams in the league (5th worst in offensive fantasy points per game allowed) and I expect the Bulls to have an easy time against them at home. Kirk Hinrich is still out, and Mike Dunleavy is a GTD. Look for Jimmy Butler to continue to get ridiculous minutes, and his price ($7,800) is much lower than it should be; Butler has a $917 True Diff from his FanDuel salary. Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol also have good matchups, but their prices are a little inflated. However, with so many good value plays today, it’s probably worth it to pay up, especially for Gasol.
DEN @ LAL (-2) (198.5)
The o/u seems low given the pace of play of both of these teams, but Denver is coming off a back to back and both of these teams should be utterly inept on offense. My favorite play on the Nuggets has to be Jusif Nurkic, who is starting to become more of a focus of the Nuggets offense and got 34 minutes last night, with a line of 16/14/2 and 3 combined steals and blocks. If Nurkic gets his minutes, he always performs, and his salary for $4,500 is a downright steal with how he’s being used by coach Brian Shaw recently. Ty Lawson ($8,000) seems like a quality play as well. His backup, Jameer Nelson, should be back in this game but it’s a great macthup for Lawson, who goes against the worst defense in the league (dead last in OFPPG). Kenneth Faried has come on as of late, and is only $5,900. As always, he’s a high risk, high reward play.
On the Lakers side, Jordan Hill and Ronnie Price are still out. Even though their thin, Byron Scott will use a deep rotation and it’s likely that no one gets more than 30-32 minutes. That being said, Carlos Boozer has been producing well off the bench and has a fantastic matchup here if Scott gives him the minutes. He’s a viable GPP play. Jordan Clarkson is solid, but I don’t love his $5,100 price tag. I have a hard time recommending anyone else, even though it’s a great matchup.
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