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Matchup Analysis: Philadelphia @ Utah, San Antonio @ Boston

Philadelphia @ Utah

No previous matchup

Team reports

Philadelphia is as it always has been, with the big 4 Hawes, Turner, MCW, and Young starting, along with James Anderson, although Anderson is not a good fantasy option. Philadelphia has been blown out in astonishing fashion the past two games, losing to Golden State by 43 and the LA Clippers by 45. They draw a much worse team in Utah so they should be competitive. Because of the blowouts, each Philadelphia player is seeing their lowest prices in quite awhile.

Utah does not have any significant injuries either, but the rotation has not been set in stone. Gordan Hayward is the only player consistently getting over 30 minutes a game, but has been struggling to score since returning from injury in late January. Trey Burke has been playing poorly of late and has a sore back, but has very attractive prices on most sites. The rest of their rotation, Favors, Williams, Burks, Evans, and Kanter all seem to be in play to get 30 minutes in any given night. Favors and Burks seem to be the safest bets for minutes in that bunch.

Best Starts

Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes

I’m lumping them both together because I don’t love these guys for any reason specific to they’re play. Because of all these blowouts, both of their prices have lowered to the 6k range, despite both averaging nearly 30 fantasy points a game. They both have 50+ point fantasy potential, and draw a good matchup from a DVP stand point in a game they should be competitive in. Their is no previous matchup so the lack of data is a little concerning but they both should do well this game and have great upside.

Gordan Hayward and Trey Burke

Each of these players have had their struggles recently. Burke is dealing with back issues which is concerning, but given how they handled Hayward’s minor injury, if Burke was seriously injured they would sit him out. You really just can’t get much better than playing Philadelphia in your home arena. Both have had their prices come down to reasonable levels and with a good price and a great matchup it’s hard to avoid playing both of them.

On the radar

Everyone Else

Seriously, besides James Anderson and Richard Jefferson, I think you have to seriously consider starting just about anyone else on both of these teams. Anyone can get minutes on Utah right now, and practically anyone in this game has 40 fantasy point potential at miniscule prices.

San Antonio @ Boston

One Previous Matchup:

Jared Sullinger was tremendous with 19 points and 17 rebounds

Kawhi Leonard filled up the stat sheet with 16 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 steals, and a block.

Parker, Splitter, Jeff Green, and Avery Bradley all had solid games.

Duncan had a decent game but had above average USG%.

Team Reports

Rajon Rondo is no longer on a minutes limit, and although he sat out last game, he should draw the start tonight. Rondo has been flirting with a triple double in his past 3 starts and should be considered a great option on any night despite his price rapidly increasing. Avery Bradley does not think he will play in tonight’s game which should grant a start for Gerald Wallace and increased playing time for Jerryd Bayless. Jared Sullinger has apparently broken through and has consequently posted a double double in each of his past 6 games. Sullinger has not seen a decrease in fantasy output with Rondo in the lineup. Jeff Green continues to be a high variance player, but has broken 50 fantasy points twice this year.

San Antonio has had so many injuries, they are no longer a formidable fantasy defense without Kawhi Leonard. While Tim Duncan continues to be one of the best defenders in the league, every other position has become vulnerable. Tony Parker and Tiago Splitter have both been ruled out of tonight’s game, giving increased minutes for Patty Mills and Boris Diaw, although who knows who will start, as Popovich loves messing around with the starting lineup. Danny Green did very well in the absence of Marco Bellineli, but with Bellineli returning he has cooled off.

Best Picks

Jared Sullinger

Sullinger’s price has been on a steep rise, eclipsing 7k on most sites. But given his success in the previous matchup, and his sensible increase in fantasy production as a young player on a bad team, we should expect him to perform with his price. The only fear here is that we see Duncan on Sullinger, and since Duncan is one of the best defenders in the league, that would really hurt his production. But if we see a lot of Diaw, who is San Antonio’s worst interior defenders, Sullinger will have a field day.

Rajon Rondo

Rondo did not play in the last matchup, but his recent production since returning from his ACL injury has been nothing short of fantastic. It’s unfortunate for Rondo that he faces Patty Mills and not Parker, the worst defender on the Spurs. But even so Rondo is at home, which bodes well for getting more liberal assist calls and an uptick in fantasy production. Last season Rondo averaged around 40 fantasy points a game. While ACL injuries are quite serious, we should expect him to sustain that production, especially on a team that is much worse than last year which should rely on him offensively more. At around 7100 on Fanduel, he seems like a quite safe start with high upside.

Patty Mills

Mills does not average a lot of minutes this season, although his production in those minutes has been staggering. Monday, in a subpar matchup against Charlotte, Mills ecliped 50 fantasy points in only 25 minutes. Mills should without a doubt get 30+ minutes in this matchup. With 50 fantasy point potential, and a good matchup against Boston, Mills may be the best start of the night. There’s a real chance Mills will not start, which will hurt his minutes, but he should still be the main man at point guard.

On the radar

Tim Duncan

Duncan did not have a great game last outing against Boston, but his USG% was above his average and that tends to be a good signal for fantasy production in future matchups. With so many injuries Duncan should expect to carry a larger offensive load. Boston also is a relatively soft matchup for big men.

Gerald Wallace

Bradley is out which means Wallace draws the start. His production is not there as much when Rondo is playing, but Wallace is close to min salary and a true 5 category player. On sites where you are very restricted by positions like Fanduel, he is quite an attractive start.

Boris Diaw

Diaw can go completely quiet some nights, but with Splitter out he should get 30 minutes or more. He is only a little above min salary on most sites, and should be a solid start. There’s just nothing overwhelming here.

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View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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