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Matchup Analysis NBA 2/5: Portland at New York, Atlanta at New Orleans

Big Wednesday today, so we here at DFW are going to break down a bunch of matchups for you. Here are two of the sneakier matchups of the day.

Portland at New York

Previous matchup notable performances:

Carmelo Anthony: 34/15/3/1/1/2
Nicolas Batum: 23/7/6/1/1/1
Lamarcus Aldridge: 18/14/3/0/1/2
Damian Lilard: 23/4/6/1/0/1
JR Smith: 6/4/3/0/0/1

The last game was at Portland and New York was playing without Raymond Felton, Tyson Chandler, and JR Smith was coming off the bench. Carmelo took 24 shots along with 10 free throw attempts, while Aldridge and Lillard took 20 shots a piece. Wesley Matthews spent most of his time guarding Carmelo, as Carmelo had a rare start at small forward. Kenyon Martin and Bargnani started to match up with Portland’s size.

Injuries:

Andrea Bargnani is out
Kenyon Martin sat out last game but could play this game

Great Starts:

Carmelo Anthony

Anthony was guarded by Wesley Matthews most of the game, who on paper seems to match up well against him, as Carmelo rarely uses his size to his advantage. That being said, Carmelo did remarkably well. Portland has given up a lot of big games to power forwards that play away from the basket, such as Dirk Nowitzki and Channing Frye, which is definitely a positive for Melo. Portland is middle of the pack giving up points to small forwards, but are 2nd in FG% allowed to SFs. That’s very encouraging for a scorer like Melo. New York is at home in this game which also should mean a better performance. I think he’s one of the best high salary players tonight.

Amar’e Stoudemire

You will need to watch the starting lineups for tonight, but given NYKs strategy last game, it seems like there is a good chance we will see Amar’e Stoudemire or Kenyon Martin start and play a lot more minutes. Aldridge is a very good defender, but for a guy who usually only gets 15-20 minutes a game, going up to 30+ is very big. Stoudemire is a very quality scorer and presents a lot of upside tonight. Amar’e has also stated publicly that he’s completely healthy and wants to play more. Seems like a very good start tonight at home against a fast paced team. If Martin plays I like him a lot less.

Worth a Look:

Lamarcus Aldridge

Aldridge is a beast so he’s always worth a look. That being said, Chandler did not play last game and probably will be matched up against Aldridge for some of the game. Chandler is a very good defender so NYK is not that much of a weak spot, and he’s on the road. I wouldn’t fault a start, but it seems like there’s a lot better matchups out there.

Nicolas Batum

If we see similar strategies to last game, Batum should be matched up against Iman Shumpert and JR Smith, the catalyst of why NYK is so bad against SGs. Batum had a lot of success last game but did not have a lot of shot attempts, only 12, although he made 8 of them. His price has dipped nearly 1k on Fanduel in the past several games so he certainly has a very attractive price. I think he’s close to a great start tonight.

Damian Lillard

The matchup is not as good as last time, as Lillard blew by Beno Udrih consistantly and now faces a much more agile Raymond Felton. With that said, Lillards price is very low for a guy who has had 60 fantasy point games, and is probably worth a good look in GPPs.

JR Smith

JR Smith has been getting a ton of minutes lately and usually has been hitting or going over value. He is definitely one of the more attractive players at the SF position. The only worry here is simply that NYK may size up to match up with Portland, so the only minutes he will be able to get are at SG or playing the 6 minutes Carmelo might sit. Still, he’ll probably get in there somewhere, and his fantasy production can’t be ignored.

Atlanta at New Orleans

No Previous Matchup

Injuries:

Tyreke Evans will probably play but has injured ribs
Jrue Holiday is out
Ryan Anderson is out
Al Horford is out
Jason Smith is out

New Orleans has been decimated by injuries, especially in the front court, and now plays a mix of Greg Stiesma and Alex Ajinca at Center. They have given up the 2nd most points to centers in the past 15 games, but with Anthony Davis at PF, they have been very tough against that position. With Jrue Holiday out, Brian Roberts has been remarkably poor at defending, and opposing PGs have taken advantage.

Atlanta’s is weak at defending every position, and plays at a fast pace that bodes well for giving up a lot of fantasy points. Their weakest position is SF where Demarre Carroll tends to gamble a lot going for steals leading to above average shot attempts and FG% for the position.

Great Starts:

Anthony Davis

Davis just keeps on improving as the season goes on. With so many injuries on NOP, Davis has stepped up offensively and started to shoot the ball much more often. Amazingly, in his past 8 games, he has never had less than 4 blocks. He’s young and is getting better, and his salary can’t catch up fast enough. Paul Millsap is a relatively turnover prone and poor offensive player who struggles against good defenders, so we should expect a lot of steals and blocks for the Brow. Besides that, there’s nothing to love about this matchup. But Davis’ price is at least 1k lower than it should be right now, and as a young player he should benefit from playing at home.

Jeff Teague

Teague had a short injury stint, and before that was laying duds left and right. His price has dropped to an incredibly reasonable $6400 on Fanduel despite averaging 30 FPPG. There’s no reason not to expect his production to come back up to those levels. With that said, Teague also has a really great matchup against NOP, with the worst defender on the team Brian Roberts guarding him. With Roberts at the helm, NOP is in the top 5 in points given up to point guards. The only thing Teague doesn’t have going for him is he’s not playing at home, but with that said his price and match up puts him in must start territory.

Eric Gordon

Gordon has 50 fantasy point potential and only a salary around $6000 on most sites, so he’s always worth a look. Atlanta is in the bottom 1/3rd in fantasy points given up to SGs, and bottom 5 in FG% given up to SGs, so they are a pretty good matchup for a scorer like Gordon. Gordon only averages 32 minutes a game on the season, so if Evans is out expect several more minutes from him and expect him to carry the load more offensively for the team. It seems like his price has not caught up to the benefit of missing scorers like Anderson and Holiday, so I really love Gordon tonight.

On the radar

Demarre Carroll

His price is very good on almost all sites except Fanduel where I would stay away. The matchup is not fantastic, but it’s also not poor, and Carroll has had great production ever since Horford’s injury. Extremely solid 50/50 or heads up start.

Tyreke Evans

He has injured ribs and may not play, but keep him on your radar for GPPs. He’s incredibly inconsistent but he has 50 fantasy point potential and could be worth a start if he plays.

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View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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