Mad Max’s Daily Fantasy Football GPP Rundown
GPP’s (Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournaments) are the most polarizing format in Daily Fantasy Football. Yes, you can win a million dollars, but it’s also very unlikely. Yes, there are a lot of poor players entering these big tournaments, but you’re also competing against good players making 100s of lineups. Can you really turn a profit playing GPPs?
My answer? A resounding yes. While GPPs are the most competitive and high variance format in Daily Fantasy, they also have the most recreational players and are the most profitable. This could not be more clear this week from looking at ownership levels from FanDuel’s Thursday contests. There are some great plays who were shockingly low-owned on FanDuel this week (You can find my list of Thursday ownership on the forum) , and there are some very mediocre plays that have high ownership. It seems like the new blood brought in by all this DFS advertising is struggling to consider who to play on a very deep level.
This article is not about my favorite plays of the week. This article is about who I think are the best (and sometimes very risky) plays for the big GPP tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings this week. Some of these may blow up in our face, but the ones that kill will make it exponentially more likely that you see a million dollar payday by Monday nights end.
QB/WR/TE Stacks I Love
Cam Newton/Greg Olsen ($6,800/$4,800 on DraftKings) – Do you know who the most targeted TE was in week 2? No, it wasn’t Rob Gronkowski. It was Greg Olsen with 14 targets. Not exactly a surprise considering in week 1 everyone realized that Olsen was essentially the only receiving option on Carolina. But it seems that 2 straight disappointing weeks (and, by the way, he did have 6 catches for 70 yards in week 2. Not bad at all) we’ve totally forgotten about him. Carolina plays at home against the Saints D this week, who seem to be on of the worst defenses in the league according to Footballoutsiders, Profootballfocus, and Sportsbooks in Vegas. Not only that, this is a Saints defense that allowed Darren Fells catch 4 balls for 82 yards and a TD in week 1, they are not exactly good against the TE.
As for Newton, he has been running it more than any time in his career. He had 14 carries in week 1, and 10 in week 2, and has been quite effective. His price has somehow dropped to $6,800 for week 3, and for a QB with this good of a matchup and 30+ fantasy point potential, he clearly is a ridiculously good play.
When I played this stack in Thursday contests this week, my expectation was this was going to be a popular play. Instead, I saw that both Newton and Olsen had about 7% ownership. It will likely be a bit higher on DraftKings where their prices are better, but their ownership in my opinion is much too low. I think Olsen finally finds the endzone this week and Newton continues to have a lot of success in the running game.
Andrew Luck/T.Y. Hilton ($9,000/$7,600 on FanDuel) – Two weeks of poor games and DFSers are off the Luck train, but we’re quick to forget that Luck was the best fantasy QB in the NFL last year, and actually has more talent on his team this year. He’s finally getting a mediocre D after going on the road to Buffalo in week 1 and playing against an underrated Jets D in week 2, and T.Y. Hilton should be healthy after exiting the game early in week 1 and being hobbled by a bruised knee in week 2 (and shadowed by Darelle Revis). I think most will be on Moncrief here, but Hilton is the clear #1 and showed it week 1 when he was targeted 14 times and didn’t even play the entire game. I like Hilton a lot, and I think a Luck/Hilton combo could be huge in week 3.
Peyton Manning/Demaryius Thomas ($8,200/$8,400 on Fanduel) – Somehow this is an under-the-radar stack, and somehow Emmanuel Sanders saw higher ownership in Thursday contests than Thomas. But this is the stack to have, as Thomas is a better TD threat and better receiver than Sanders. Look, Manning has not looked good in his first 2 weeks, but he actually had similar struggles up until week 4 of last season, when he wrecked Arizona for 479 yards and 4 TDs. This is the type of upside Peyton Manning still has, and both Thomas and Manning are pretty fairly priced considering their skill. The Lions have been bottom 7 in pass coverage according to both PFF and Footballoutsiders this year, so this is certainly a juicy matchup. And they are playing in a dome as well, which should help Peyton quite a bit.
DraftKings Bargain Stacks
Andy Dalton/Marvin Jones ($5,700/$3,600) – Jones actually played only one less snap than A.J. Green last week and has emerged as the #2 WR in this offense. This matchup really caught my eye because of how the Ravens secondary is structured. Their #1 corner, Jimmy Smith, has been very good the past 2 years, but the Ravens #2, Ladarius Webb, has been horrible. While I think Smith shadows Green most of the game, Jones gets a cake matchup and should get open quite a bit. I think Jones is trending upward right now, and should get more targets and catches in week 3. As for Dalton, the Ravens have a stout run D, but a poor pass D, and Dalton’s pricetag is way too low. Dalton has the receiving talent to throw for 3 TDs, which is plenty at this price.
Nick Foles/Jared Cook ($5,200/$2,800) – Look, Nick Foles is not a good QB, but the Steelers pass defense is awful. They were consistently torched last year, and it’s even more of the same this year with some really bad coaching on the defensive side. I recommended Cook last week as he seems to be the most consistent receiver in this offense, but the Rams only scored 10 points and Cook didn’t find the endzone. Despite a lackluster offense in week 2, Vegas has the Rams scoring 24 points against this defense and I think given this matchup these points will come through the air. Our most reliable receiver in this offense is Cook, who comes at a ridiculously bargain price despite his production. Use these two and suddenly you have a lot of money to spend at RB, where there are some fantastic plays in Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, and Marshawn Lynch.
DraftKings WR I Love
Randall Cobb ($7,300) – Cobb had been slowed by a shoulder injury in week 1, but performed quite well in week 2 catching 8 balls for 116 yards. He still hasn’t caught a TD, but this is a receiver who caught 12 TDs last year and should have even more opportunities with the Packers highest TD producing WR (Jordy Nelson) out for the year. He’s kind of flying under-the-radar with Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, and Julio Jones getting off to such a great start, but he’s actually my top play at receiver in week 2. The matchup against KC is solid here and with Eddie Lacy hobbled I expect Cobb to be a big, big part of this offense.
Larry Fitzgerald – His ownership in Thursday contests on FanDuel was 23.5%, which is absolutely ridiculous given what type of player we have here. This is a guy who caught a total of 2 TDs and had a total 800 receiving yards in 2014. I think his pricetag is fair. Don’t get me wrong, this is a great matchup for Carson Palmer and the Arizona offense, but I’m going to avoid the Palmer/Fitzgerald pairing here. He could easily dud and Palmer could easily pass more to John Brown or even Michael Floyd, who will eventually become a bigger player in this offense as he was last year. I think a reasonable pivot here is Jeremy Maclin, who’s priced $200 less on FanDuel and has been a consistent performer in Kansas City’s offense. He had a reasonable game against the Broncos epic CB tandem, and had a solid game in Houston before leaving the game with an injury. I think this is the game where he could break out.
Houston D/ST – The Seahawks will obviously be the most popular defense here as Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery are out and Chicago’s offense has looked anemic. And Seattle is a great play. But, Houston has a great matchup against rookie Jameis Winston and the TB offense and their pass rush is much improved this year with Jadeveon Clowney in the fold. Look for the Texans to get quite a few sacks and Winston to make some bad mistakes. They have just as much upside, if not more, than the Seahawks this week.
Good luck with your lineups! If you have any questions about this article, tweet me @maxjsteinberg of find me on the Dailyfantasywinners.com forums.
View all posts by Max J Steinberg