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Five Thoughts On NFL Week 16

Jacksonville and Detroit Will Be Way Better Than We Are Used To

The Jaguars have been the worst offense in the league this year, scoring only 15.1 points per game. This week against the Titans, they are projected to score 22 points. That is a 45.7% increase. What the Sportsbooks are telling us is that the Jaguars offense are better than they’ve performed this year. The entire Jaguars offense has had their fantasy stats weighed down by an unlucky year, and their salaries have followed. Target Blake Bortles, Toby Gerhart, and Allen Hurns in Thursday contests, as each one is dirt cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Like the Jaguars, the Lions have also had a down year offensively. But this week on the road against a truly awful Bears pass defense, Vegas has them at their highest projection of the year, 26.25 points, 6.15 points above their season average points per game. The Lions are a very pass heavy team, so expect Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson to have huge games.

Seattle Defense May Finally Have A Good Fantasy Week

Seattle has only ranked 13th in fantasy defense this year, which is quite low for a team who is known as arguably the most dominant defense in the NFL. This week though they get a the gift of the depleted Arizona offense. Arizona is on their 3rd string QB and without their starting RB. They also have one of the worst offensive lines in football. Vegas clearly does not remotely believe in them as they project them to only score 14.5 points. This is by far the lowest point projection for any home team all year.  With bad offensive production, there should also be turnovers and hopefully defensive TDs. Seahawks are my favorite defense this week.

Mark Ingram Makes A Return To Fantasy Viability

There was a few week period during this season where Mark Ingram was the hottest RB in daily fantasy. He’s done practically nothing the past couple weeks, and the story is that the return of Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson has hurt his production.  The reality is the Saints haven’t been big favorites for weeks, and Ingram’s workload has been just as high as when the Saints have had a lead.  Robinson only got 2 snaps two weeks ago against Carolina, and only 8 snaps last week even though the Saints completely blew out the Bears. The Falcons have the worst defense in football, and the Saints have a huge 31 point projection. The Saints should have plenty of success running the ball this week, and an 100+ yard, multi-TD game is certainly Ingram’s plausible upside. I don’t think he’s a cash game play, but he should have low ownership in GPPs.

A.J. Green Could Be The Top Fantasy WR

A.J. Green has only played 9 full games this season. He’s also on one of the most run inclined teams in the NFL. So the opportunity for a lot of fantasy points hasn’t been there for him. However, the production has been there. Green has actually led the league in fantasy points per pass route at WR, meaning when Cincinnati actually calls a pass play, A.J. Green is the best fantasy WR in football. Denver leads the league in opponent pass attempts per game with 41.4, so 35+ pass attempts for Andy Dalton seems like a lock. We project the Bengals to be the 7th most pass happy team this week, and with that should come a lot of targets, yards, and TDs for Green.

Justin Forsett Will Bounce Back This Week

A lot of people got burned last week playing Forsett in an extremely favorable matchup against the Jags. Despite is bad game, there’s a lot to like about Forsett. First off, ProFootballFocus rates the Ravens as the 2nd best run blocking team in football, so the supporting cast is certainly very strong. Another factor in Forsett’s favor is the loss of backup RB Lorenzo Taliaferro for the year. Taliaferro has played sparingly this year, but has taken some goal line touches from Forsett when he has played. Without Taliaferro, we should see more goal line looks for Forsett. Forsett doesn’t have the reputation of an elite RB, but he’s quietly been great in his career despite not getting many opportunities. Forsett has averaged 5.1 yards per carry in his career, a mark that currently is better than every starting RB in the NFL. The matchup against the Texans is not great, but it’s certainly solid enough for a guy who will not be highly owned this week.

 

 

 

 

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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