Fantasy NFL Picks Week 14
The Best Of The Bunch
Everyone On The Packers
The line on the Falcons @ Packers this game is truly a sight to see. It’s up to 56 with Packers favored by 13 on some books, meaning the Packers are projected to score 34.5 points. That is the highest point projection of the season for any team. This is arguably the best offense in the league going against the worst defense. Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb, and Jordy Nelson are all the top plays for me at their respective positions. My favorites are Lacy and Cobb. Lacy should benefit from a big lead and get a big workload. Cobb moves around the formation a ton and comes out of the backfield occasionally, which means he will draw less of the Falcons best CB Desmond Trufant in coverage. If one of these guys fails to get a 25+ point fantasy game I’d be shocked.
From a statistical standpoint, all factors points to Gates having a great game. The Chargers are underdogs and should pass a lot. The Patriots are the 2nd worst team in the league against TEs according to Football Outsiders. Gate’s price on both FanDuel and DraftKings is close to the cheapest it’s been all year, 5600 and 4700 respectively.
From an individual matchup standpoint, Gates looks like a fantastic play. It’s hard to imagine Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd having any success against Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. That really leaves just Gates as the only reliable option in the passing game. There’s just too much in favor of Gates, he’s a sure thing next week.
The fact that Manning is at home against an team that is strong against the run and weak against the pass bodes really well. But what was really surprising was Manning’s usage in the Thursday tournaments this week: He was only in 1.1% of lineups. For a guy who clearly has the most upside of any QB, you’re going to get great “contrarian” value here.
Bounce Back Game
Graham had no targets, no receptions, and of course no fantasy points last week for seemingly no reason. The Steelers keyed in on Graham with multiple defenders, and it ended up not paying off as they lost the game and gave up 35 points. Graham’s history against the Panthers defense, which has had the same coach and similar personnel for the past 3 seasons, is quite remarkable. In those 7 games, Graham had these stats: 7-83-1, 5-73-1, 6-58-2, 9-115-1, 7-71-1, 8-97-1, and 8-129-0. That’s mind blowing, high level consistency. Graham is right there with Gronk as the best TE in the league, so don’t worry too much about his egg last week. But last weeks dud will seriously hurt his usage in the big FanDuel and DraftKings tournaments.
Baldwin has had two consecutive dud fantasy weeks, but they were tough matchups against the 49ers and Cardinals. This week Baldwin gets the Eagles on the road where the Seahawks are underdogs. The Seahawks have been the most run heavy team in the league this year, but as road dogs against an awful pass defense, we should see 30+ pass attempts by Russell Wilson. Baldwin is the WR1 on the team after Percy Harvin’s mid-season departure, so if anyone is going to benefit from the Seahawks passing matchup, it’s Baldwin.
I outlined in this article just how bad the Houston Texans are against #1 WRs. Despite a lot of different targets in the Jaguars passing game, Cecil Shorts is the clear WR1 on the Jags. The Jaguars have struggled hard this season on offense, but only 6 team points didn’t stop Pierre Garcon from racking up 10 receptions for 77 yards against the Texans, nor did 14 team points stop James Jones from nabbing 9 receptions for 112 yards and a TD against them. This matchup is basically fool proof, I expect a huge day from Shorts.
I’m not going to claim to know exactly what the Patriots game plan is each week. However, I am a huge Patriots fan and have watched and followed every game this season closely. It’s clear that in games where the Patriots face a great run defense (Broncos, Jets), they don’t try to run the ball much. It’s also clear that when the Patriots feel like they can run all over a team (Colts), they will do it a ton. Furthermore, the backfield situation really isn’t as muddled as it seems. Blount is the lead back, Vereen is the passing down back. For whatever reason, Jonas Gray is not a factor.
San Diego’s run defense is not god awful, but it is bad. If the Patriots get the run game going, we should see Blount have a field day. It’s risky for sure. But that’s the point of large tournaments. For Blount’s ceiling, his price of 4200 on DraftKings just seems asinine.View all posts by Daniel Steinberg