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DraftKings MEGA One Million Dollar Payoff Pitch Strategy and Picks

Today, DraftKings is throwing a One Millon Dollar Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournament, only $27 to enter, and $100,000 guaranteed for first. The field is capped at 42,200 players, so it is going to be quite tough to win. But with such a small investment, a soft field, and a probable overlay, good lineups should be extremely profitable. Here are my picks and general strategy advice for DraftKings today which could help you take home $100,000.

Enter the $33 Payoff Pitch for a chance to win $100,000! 

Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw ($12,200)

His salary is quite high, he’s been struggling, and he draws the 3rd lowest strikeout team in the league. But Kershaw has some good things going for him today. Kershaw has big strikeout splits, striking out nearly 13 per 9 innings vs left handed hitters, and Atlanta should throw out 4-5 left handed hitters today. He also is the biggest favorite and has the lowest opponent run projection. Kershaw has been more unlucky than bad this season, with career high strikeout numbers and an xFIP comparable to last season, so I think the struggles end tonight.

Matt Shoemaker ($7300)

Jacob deGrom is probably going to be much more highly owned, and he certainly seems like a good play against a really bad Phillies team. But Shoemaker has an ideal matchup. He’s at home in a pitcher friendly park. He also goes against the Padres, one of the worst lineups against right handed pitching in the MLB. Shoemaker is a young pitcher who has been much better against righties than lefties, with a K/BB ratio of 6.36 against right handed hitters. Shoemaker’s price is fantastic and is the 2nd best pitcher from a value perspective on DraftKings in my mind.

Hitters

Anthony Rizzo/Bryce Harper/Kris Bryant 

The wind is blowing at Wrigley Field today, which means home runs should be plentiful. The 3 players above are by far the best power hitters on both teams, and therefore make for fantastic plays today. Bryant is the biggest flyball hitter of the bunch and is my favorite play. If he can get a ball up in the air he should have a good chance at a home run or two.

Edwin Encarnacion ($5300)

Encarnacion is my favorite play because he has the most secondary factors going for him today. First off, he’s at Rogers Centre which is one of the best righty home run parks in the league. The matchup with pitcher John Danks is beyond ideal. Danks gives up a lot of home runs which is favorable for a power hitter. Danks also gives up the most pulled balls in the league the past couple seasons, which sets up well for a pull heavy Encarnacion. Danks’ pitch arsenal also plays in Encarnacion’s favor. Danks throws a lot of changeups, which Encarnacion has mashed hard in his career. I love Encarnacion today.

Mike Moustakas ($3900)

I really love when power hitters who play in pitcher parks go to extremely home run friendly parks, because they are sneaky great plays. Moustakas and Hosmer fit that mold. But while Hosmer’s ability to hit for power to all fields makes him a better overall hitter than Moustakas, Moustakas’ extreme pull tendency on home runs plays perfectly to Yankees Stadium’s park factors. It’s the best park for left handed pull home runs in the league, and that’s all that Moustakas hits. He’s facing an average pitcher in Adam Warren and the over/under is fairly high as well.

Kolten Wong ($3900)

This article has been all about home runs so far, but there are a fair amount of good stolen base matchups today. One of them is Wong, who has been hitting leadoff for the Cardinals for the past several weeks. His opposing pitcher Archie Bradley is tall and has a long delivery which makes him poor against base stealers. He also gives up a ton of walks and hits, Steamer and ZIPS both project him for a WHIP over 1.5, which should lead to a lot of stolen base opportunities. Wong is probably going to be low owned so he should be a fantastic, high upside play, with multiple stolen bases, runs, and hits possible.

Best Stacks

For those who are unaware, a stack is where you play multiple players next to each other in the lineup on the same team, most commonly the maximum of 6. This strategy is used to maximize variance, which should increase your chances of putting up a big score.

Cubs/Nationals

Highest over/under game of the day, and therefore the best teams to stack.

Blue Jays

We talked about Encarnacion, but the majority of Blue Jays hitters fit the pull and home run hitter mold. I think they will be better than Vegas projects.

Orioles/Cardinals/Red Sox

All 3 teams are facing pitchers that are poor against stolen bases, and if any of these teams gets it going today we should see everyone get in on the base stealing action. These teams have much higher upsides than their run projections would suggest.

 

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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