DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Match-up Breakdown 8/12
Tonight has a huge slate of games, with a lot of great match-ups for hitters. My strategy for evaluating match-ups is a combination of our pitcher handedness splits, player projections (which you can find under the tools tab), and GB/FB ratios. I’m not going to go through every pitcher, just the juiciest.
Yohan Flande (opponent – Padres): Flande throws mostly a combination of sinkers and sliders, meaning righties should to quite well against him. He’s also an extreme ground ball pitcher.
Target: Rene Rivera (Fanduel – $2,400 DraftKings $2,200) – Most players just ignore all Padres, especially no-name catchers like Rivera. However, he has a dream matchup as a fly ball hitting righty. Especially on DraftKings, he’s nice play. Jedd Gyorko is also a nice play.
Jeremy Hellickson (opponent – Rangers): Hellickson throws mostly 4-seams and change-ups, with a few two seams. Righties should actually be fine against him. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher.
Target: Elvis Andrus (Fanduel – $2,600 DraftKings $3,700) – Andrus is an extreme GB hitter and facing a righty who doesn’t dominate righties should actually help Andrus, who gets a lot of value from stealing bases.
Josh Collmenter (opponent – Indians): Collmenter is a cutter, change-up dominant pitcher, which means his splits are probably neutral. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. He is also a tall pitcher, and Montero is DHing, which means he will probably be poor against SBs.
Target: Jose Ramirez (Fanduel – $2,400 DraftKings $2,100) – It’s absolutely amazing value for Ramirez on DraftKings. He’s a GB hitter and should steal bases off the Collmenter-Pacheco battery.
Joe Kelly (opponent – Reds): Kelly throws almost exclusively two-seams, which means lefties should do very well against him. He also is a GB pitcher.
Target: Jay Bruce (Fanduel – $3000 DraftKings – $4,200) – This is a dream match-up for Bruce, who is my top pick tonight. He’s a 1.03 FP/$1000 in our FanDuel projections, and is a fly-ball hitting lefty. I’d be shocked if he has a bad game.
Yohan Pino (opponent – Astros): Pino is a 4-seam dominant player who throws a few two-seams and sliders. He’s also an extreme FB pitcher, and terrible.
Target: Everyone – I don’t think there’s a particular player who will do well, but all the Astros should benefit from this match-up so just pick the best value. Robbie Grossman comes to mind.
Jared Cosart (opponent – Cardinals): Cosart throws a cutter, 4-seam and curve and almost non two-seams or sliders. Righties should actually do well against him, and the stats back it up. Cosart has reverse splits in his career. He’s also an extreme ground-ball pitcher.
Target: Jhonny Peralta (Fanduel $2,700 DraftKings $3,700) – Peralta is cheap, especially on Fanduel, and is a fly-ball-ish hitting righty. The Cardinals are expected to do quite well tonight and SS is a thin position. He comes in at a .81 FP/$1000.View all posts by Max J Steinberg