DFS MLB June 12th: Three Pitchers To Target
As I get better at daily fantasy, I find myself more motivated to move beyond Vegas lines and do my own in depth analysis. Run lines mostly have to do with the skill of opposing pitchers, so finding signals of short or long term regression in pitchers can give you a big edge. Here’s my analysis on three pitchers who may be worse than Vegas projects them.
I don’t think Vegas disagrees with my assessment that Correia is bad. The Pirates near 5 run projection at home is downright remarkable for a pitchers park. Correia has not pitched yet in the majors this year, and last season showed a lot of signs of decline. Correia’s velocity was downa cross the board in 2014, while his reliance on offspeed pitches increased. Low velocity and high use of offspeed pitches tend to increase home runs allowed. It’s quite remarkable how bad Vegas thinks Correia is, but I have no reason not to buy their assessment. He may very well be a bit worse. He should be rusty in his first start of the season.
Tommy Milone appears to be a bad matchup as a lefty against a Ranger’s team that’s full of good lefites. But Milone has reverse splits in his career, meaning he’s actually been worse against lefties than righties, and has been worse than ever against everyone this season. While his velocity is stable, both his first pitch strike and zone percentage are at career lows. Milone was already wild, but it appears he has lost command this season. It’s a bit bizarre, if you look at his gamelog from 2014, you find that he displays a high Zone% early in the season. Then on June 29th he completely loses his command, only throwing 30% strikes. And from there it looks like he’s never regained it. It’s like he’s completely lost confidence. His worst command is on his changeup, which he’s thrown for strikes less than 20% of the time this season.
He’s unsurprisingly last in the league among all starters this season in FIP. I think his poor command this season means he’s worse then he looks and Vegas is over projecting him, moreso than Correia.
Oberholtzer is another reverse splits lefty who has been a solid young pitcher in his first few seasons in the majors. This is only the 4th start for Brett, who spent most of the season on the DL with a blister on his left index finger. There is some concern about that blister lingering, and his peripheral stats this season suggest that is happening, despite his ERA and FIP being respectably under 4 this season. His velocity is down a tick, while his Zone% has plummeted from 50.9% to 44.2%. Both these stats are consistent with a pitcher who is playing through injury. He had a 7.91 xFIP in his last start, giving up tons of fly balls, although non of them landed for home runs. Still, Oberholtzter has been better than his horrific first start of the season in May, and he should be better as the season goes on. But you shouldn’t find a lot of people targeting the lefty heavy Mariners lineup against a lefty, so I like targeting hitters in this game.
View all posts by Daniel Steinberg