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Daily Fantasy NFL Week 11: Locks

Assessing injury impact is one of the most important skills to develop in DFS NFL. When big offensive contributors go down for good teams, bench players can often step up and become immediate fantasy superstars. Late in the season we have had some really big injuries which has opened up some really good values for Week 11.

 

Normally, I don’t think of any of my picks as locks. A “lock” assumes that a player could not possibly have a bad game. In reality, anyone can have a bad game, especially in football when people get injured all the time. But the following picks are so highly projected given their salary, I think it would be crazy not to play them all heavily.

 

Charcandrick West (7100 FD, 4500 DK)

This guy is going to have through the roof ownership but his price is way too good to fade, especially on DraftKings. West is the fill in for injured Jamaal Charles. He’s consistently been getting 80% of snaps, has a great offensive line, and a great system for RBs under coach Andy Reid. He’s also been playing well. He shredded a really good Denver defense last week for over 30 fantasy points. San Diego has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season, so there’s really no argument against him here. He got 88% of snaps last week, which was 3rd among running backs.

 

Darren McFadden (6800 FD, 5000 DK)

Max and I have been all over McFadden the past couple weeks against some tough run defenses and he hasn’t come through. This week he faces the Dolphins D, who are 2nd only to San Diego in fantasy points allowed to RBs. With Romo back this week the offense should move a lot better and McFadden should have a ton of production. Christine Michael has been waived, so McFadden should get 90% of snaps at the very least. I like McFadden a bit more than West as West will be so much more highly owned and their projections, in my view, are about the same.

 

Danny Amendola (FD 6100, DK 4000)

The Patriots are the highest scoring offense in the league. They also are the most pass heavy team in the league according to our spread adjusted pass percentage statistic. So there are tons of fantasy points to go around in the Patriots passing offense. Julian Edelman was a big part of that offense, but is out for the rest of the regular season, so Amendola will step into his role. Amendola was clearly an integral part of the Patriots offense last week after Edelman went down, grabbing 10 catches for 79 yards. Given DraftKings scores .5 more points per reception than FanDuel, Amendola’s DK price is effectively miniscule. The Bills are a tough defense, but Amendola should play mostly in the slot, avoiding coverage from Buffalo’s best corners. Amendola is the biggest lock of the week in my opinion. I don’t think you should leave him out of a lineup on DraftKings.

 

Stevie Johnson (5600 FD, 3900 DK)

Another big injury impact guy like Amendola, the Chargers lost Keenan Allen two weeks ago and Malcolm Floyd last week. Stevie Johnson is now the number one receiver on the team and gets an extremely juicy matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are 2nd in fantasy points allowed to WRs. Johnson is a super easy play, but since he hasn’t shown big production yet he may get low ownership levels, which makes him a really great GPP option.

 

Seahawks D (5400 FD, 4000 DK)

The Seahawks are a very obvious pick, but they do seem like a lock this week. The 49ers opened as 10.5 point underdogs, but the line immediately jumped to 13. I think smart money jumped in on the Seahawks early. The Seahawks demolished QB Jimmy Clausen and the Bears in Week 3, pitching a shutout. I think this defense at home with all the noise is extremely dominant against bad teams, and I don’t see how the 49ers god awful offense could possibly score on them. I’m probably going to bet under 14 points for the 49ers this week.

 

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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