Daily Fantasy MLB: Top Plays 4/15

Today is a difficult day for Daily Fantasy Baseball players because there are only a few games with high over/under lines and therefore few clear good plays. With that said, my top picks for today utilize a lot of small factors. There have been a lot of overlays early on this fantasy baseball season and the prize pools are high, so this is a great time to give daily fantasy baseball a try.

Lance Lynn (8700 FD/DK)

There isn’t a clear cut pick at pitcher today. Home favorites Collin McHugh, Travis Wood, Jon Niese, Francisco Liriano, and Brandon Morrow all seem decent. Lance Lynn is the biggest favorite and also seems like the best option. Lynn is projected to do very well against the Brewers, mostly because he is extremely tough on right handed hitters and the Brewers have barely any lefties in the lineup. He also has the highest K/9 projected by ZIPS at 8.9. Lynn is simply a better pitcher than the rest and has the best matchup.

Jose Altuve (4100 FD, 4600 DK)

Altuve just has everything going for him this game, and as I wrote a few days ago, high SB guys scale extremely well with matchup. Drew Pomeranz is a lefty pitcher with huge platoon splits who also is not very good against stolen bases, -2 rSB in his career. That’s not terrible, but it’s pretty bad for a lefty. Altuve is a righty that also has huge platoon splits, so he should get on base a lot and have success stealing.

Chris Davis (3500 FD, 4800 DK)

Camden Yards is a hitters park and Nathan Eovaldi is not a great pitcher, so Chris Davis seems good at first glance. When you look deeper, he looks even better. Camden Yards is one of the best left handed home run parks in the league. Eovaldi has huge platoon splits for a right hander, which is favorable to the left handed Davis. Davis looks good in MLB hitter signals as well. His free swinging plate approach matches up well with Eovaldi’s propensity to pound the strike zone. Davis’ high strikeout rate won’t be an issue against Eovaldi who rarely gets swings and misses.

Marlon Byrd (2500 FD)

On DraftKings he’s definitely too expensive, and he probably will be played very little on FanDuel because the Reds have such a poor run projection, but there is a lot to like about Byrd. He shows up quite well in our hitter signals in the same way as Davis. Byrd swings a lot and strikes out a lot which matches up great with Wood who throws a lot of strikes and doesn’t strike a lot of people out. Wood also has big platoon splits which matches up well with the right handed Byrd. Marlon Byrd is certainly not as good as Davis or Altuve, but I think he’s great value in tournaments where he should have low ownership.


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Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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