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Daily Fantasy Football Week 2: Sportsbook Projections

As you may know from reading our articles this year, we trust online and Las Vegas sportsbooks for projecting team performance in all sports (We go into detail why here), especially for NFL. The lines for week 2 are out and in this article we’ll look at a few of those lines and outline players you’ll want to target.

Washington (-6) vs Jacksonville, 43.5 o/u

At least on paper, Washington’s offense seemed to stink it up pretty badly against the Texans week 1, but against the Jags they’re projected to score 24.75 points by the Sportsbooks. It’s also a surprise that Jacksonville is only projected to score 18.75 against a Redskins D that was quite poor last year, but it seems like Vegas is buying some of the Skins acquisitions on D.

Target: Pierre Garcon ($6,900 on FanDuel, $6,400 on DraftKings)

Just like last year, the RG3 to Garcon connection was strong in Week 1. Garcon caught 10 balls on 12 targets and he’s still clearly RG3’s favorite target. With Jordan Reed out for a few weeks, Garcon should continue to get heavy targets and should perform well against the Jags leaky pass D. He seems like a great play on DraftKings PPR format especially, since 7+ receptions is almost a guarantee in the Redskins short passing offense.

Denver (-13) vs Kansas City, o/u 51.5

Wow. While the Chiefs performed absolutely atrociously week 1, they still came into the season expected to be a solid defense. However, this seems to have changed with a couple injuries, most notably Derrick Johnson, who ruptured his achilles tendon against the Titans and is done for the year (PFF wrote a great article on the impact of Derrick Johnson’s absence here). Denver is projected to score 32.5, so although they have a lot of weapons there is plenty of production to go around.

Target: Montee Ball ($8,100 on Fanduel, $6,800 on DraftKings)

With KC’s best run stopping linebacker going down, I’m targeting the Broncos RB. Ball had a solid game with 67 yards rushing and a TD, and added 2 catches for 16 yards in week 1. The encouraging number is carries, Ball carried the football 23 times against the Colts.  This is Ball’s first year as the #1 back, so I expect to see some improvement from him throughout the year, and especially for only $6,800 on DraftKings, Ball is a steal.

Tennessee (-3.5) vs Dallas, o/u 49

The most intriguing aspect of this line is the Titans point projection of 26.25. We talked about how bad Dallas’ D would be this year in a preview article before week 1, and they showed it against the 49ers with Colin Kaepernick throwing all over them. The clear target here is a Titans player, the question is who.

 

Target: Shonn Greene ( $5,000 on Fanduel, $3,300 on DraftKings)

There was a lot of talk that Bishop Sankey would share time with Greene, but in the end Greene got 15 carries to Sankey’s 6 and Dexter McCluster got 9 running some read option with Locker. Greene had good production with 4.7 YPC so it would be shocking if he didn’t continue to receive the majority of the carries in week 2. While Greene’s production is hurt by DraftKings full PPR format, he still seems likely to surpass his bargain $3,300 price.

 

View all posts by Max J Steinberg
Max J Steinberg

About the Author

Max J Steinberg Max Steinberg is a professional poker player and a top Daily Fantasy player who uses his creativity and mathematical abilities he cultivated as a poker player to win money on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He already has several big tournament scores to his name including the Victiv Bowl and countless MLB Monster wins. Follow him on twitter @maxjsteinberg.

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