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Daily Fantasy Football Week 2: Five Offenses, Five Targets

Good strategy in daily fantasy generally involves a mix of finding undervalued players and looking to sportsbook Over/Under lines to see which teams have the highest point projections. In this article, I will go over the best target on the highest projected teams according to O/U lines, as well as one player to avoid.

Denver Broncos 32.25 Points, 13 Point Favorites

Target: Julius Thomas

Denver’s projection is kind of shocking considering the Chiefs were considered one of the best defenses in the NFL just a year ago. But apparently this is not the same Chiefs team. Thomas’ price rose this week after an epic 100 Yard 3 TD performance Week 1. The scouting report on Thomas last year was that he was an incredible athlete who was still developing his football saavy. If that’s the case, it would make a lot of sense to see Thomas make a huge leap this year. As long as his salary doesn’t get out of control I’m going to be on him.

Avoid: Montee Ball

The truth is, I think everyone is in play for the Broncos. But Ball is the guy I like the least. He has a top tier salary, but has yet to prove anything in the NFL. He should continue to get 20+ carries a game, but we have yet to see if his production will match his workload. The Broncos are still primarily a passing offense, and there’s no reason to think that will change.

Indianapolis Colts: 28.25 Points, 3 Point Favorites

Target: Reggie Wayne

Wayne’s price is an affordable $6200 on Fanduel, but for that price you should get top tier production. Wayne is getting up there in age, but he has still shown an ability to produce, catching 9 passes for almost 100 Yards last week. As the number one WR on one of the best offenses of the week, he’s a huge steal. It certainly helps that the Colts face the Eagles, the worst pass defense last year.

Avoid: Hakeem Nicks

Nicks is the sexy pick this year as players hope he returns to his former self in a better passing offense. But Nicks only got 5 targets last week, and his TD was a deceiving one: he ended up luckily catching a deflected ball. It can take time to build chemistry with a QB and I trust guys like Hilton and Wayne a lot more than someone new like Nicks.

Green Bay Packers: 27.25 Points, 9.5 Point Favorites

Target: Jordy Nelson

Nelson’s been injured so often that people don’t put him in the conversation as one of the best WR’s in the league, but he really should be. I love the matchup with the Jets because they have such a great run defense, almost all the Packers points should come in the passing game. Randall Cobb seems very much in play as well.

Avoid: Eddy Lacy

I like Lacy a lot and I think he will have a great season. But against the best run defense in the league it’s an easy guy to avoid here.

Cincinnati Bengals: 26.75 Points, 5.5 Point Favorites

Target: Giovanni Bernard

The Bengals have shockingly good value this week, as they are not a juggernaut offense but are one of the highest projected teams. Bernard had to share time in the backfield last year, but this year he’s the clear primary back and should run rampant on a weak Falcons defense.

Avoid: No One

I think everyone is in play on the Bengals here. Practically everyone besides Dalton, Green, and Bernard are around min salary which just seems way too low for such a potent offense this week. Jermaine Gresham should benefit with Tyler Eifert now on the IR. Mohammad Sanu should get more involved as well.

Tennessee Titans: 26.25 Points, 3.5 Point Favorites

Target: Justin Hunter

Hunter did not have an awesome first week, as he did not even break 10 fantasy points. But the worst defense in the league comes to Tennessee this week, the Dallas Cowboys. That means there are going to be tons of juicy targets this week. The consensus favorite appears to be Hunter, who is a young WR coming off a strong season last year. Hunter was team leader in targets last week and we should expect more of the same this week.

Avoid: No One

Just like the Bengals, the Titans have such fairly priced players and have such a high point projection it feels a bit silly to recommend avoiding any of them. Targeting anyone from this game shouldn’t be a mistake.

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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