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Correlation Picks NBA 1/17

Tonight we have a huge slate of games. We wanted to give some picks based on what our correlation analysis says for tonight, and one guy to stay away from.

Michael-Carter Williams

MCW lit up Miami last time they played. Miami is not a great matchup for PGs but we found that MCW is actually negatively correlated with DVP, so DVP really should not be considered with him. What he is correlated highly with is wins of opponent: He gets up for big games. The only game he did poorly in vs a very good team was against San Antonio, however he did have 3 steals and blocks in that game which is encouraging. Really great pick on Draftkings where his price is low.

Goran Dragic

Dragic is a pretty obvious pick tonight since Bledsoe is injured and his fantasy points have gone way up over a large sample without Bledsoe. Dallas is not fantastic from a DVP perspective against PGs, but they are very poor in defensive efficiency, bottom 10 in the league, and poor in our rim protection stat. Dragic correlates with those latter two stats positively and not at all with DVP so go with Dragic tonight.

Tristan Thompson

Thompson had a huge game against Denver in their last matchup, but there is more to like. Thompson is very highly correlated with DVP and Denver gives up the 2nd most points to power forwards. Thompson is basically a lock tonight to go off.

 

Stay Away

Steph Curry

Curry is a decent pick for a GPP any given night since he can go off for 60+ point games. But in cash games I would stay away. OKC with Reggie Jackson at the helm is top 10 in points given up to point guards, which makes Curry a popular pick. With that said, we found that Curry’s performance does not correlate highly to… well… anything. Too risky in cash games especially with picks like Lowry, Dragic, MCW and Bradley as alternatives.

Good luck tonight!

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View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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