5 Things I’m Geeking Out On Today For MLB DFS

I feel like a total nerd today because I’m so excited to make lineups for Daily Fantasy Baseball. There are a lot of interesting matchups and a lot of guys who should be very low owned in the big tournaments who could have great days. Here are five things that an average DFS player will miss but could be the key to winning a huge tournament or qualifier on DraftKings and FanDuel.

1. Matt Harvey Gets The Perfect Matchup

Normally, Philadelphia is considered a good matchup for pitchers, especially for left handers since the Phillies have a large amount of lefties in their lineup. Matt Harvey is a right hander, but he is one of those weird pitchers who has large reverse splits, specifically in the strikeout department. In his career, Harvey actually averages 10.89 K/9 against lefties while only 8.58 K/9 against righties. The Phillies have a large amount of high strikeout lefties, so we should see Harvey have a spectacular game.

2. Reverse Split Lefty Brett Anderson Pitches At Coors

One thing you rarely see in a big tournament is a highly owned left handed hitter going against a left handed pitcher. Because of typical platoon splits, left handed hitters tend to be projected very poorly in these matchups. Like Harvey, Brett Anderson is one of those weird pitchers who have large reverse splits. Guys like Charlie Blackmon, Justin Morneau, Corey Dickerson, and Carlos Gonzalez are all going to be solid, high upside plays, but should get very little play from the field.

3. Marlon Byrd Has Everything Going For Him

Besides Coors Field, US Cellular Field, where the White Sox play, is the best right handed Home Run park in baseball. Hector Noesi also gives up a ton of Home Runs, Steamer projects him as second overall in HR/9 this season. Marlon Byrd is an above average Home Run hitter, so the matchup at US Cellular and against Noesi benefits him. The biggest factor going for Byrd however is a flyball pitcher matchup. Byrd has an extremely flat swing plane, which causes him to have a huge split against flyball pitchers compared to groundball pitchers; he hits 90 wOBA points better against flyball pitchers. If the wind if blowing out to left field today I’m gonna be all over Byrd.

4. Mike Pelfrey, Roberto Hernandez, and Aaron Sanchez WHIP It Good

According to Steamer, these 3 pitchers have are in the top 35 of 586 projected pitchers in Walks and Hits Per Innings Pitched (WHIP). High WHIP pitchers tend to be the best matchups for high stolen base hitters, because trips to first base mean more stolen base opportunities and runs scored. Pelfrey and Hernandez are bad against stolen bases according to rSB, while Aaron Sanchez is likely poor given his height and handedness. I like Mike Trout, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Johnny Giavotella, Michael Bourn and Mookie Betts with extremely favorable matchups today.

5. High Guaranteed Prize Pools And Great Qualifiers

As someone who go to travel with my brother’s Aaron and Max to the FanDuel Fantasy Football World Championship last fall, I have to say these live events that FanDuel and DraftKings put on are just awesome. You can qualify for live championships on FanDuel today at the Playboy Mansion, which should be amazing for Max who has already won a seat, as well as the World Fantasy Baseball Championship, which has a $1,000,000 first prize and takes place in Las Vegas. FanDuel also has their usual $25 buy in, $250,000 guaranteed Grand Slam tournament, while DraftKings has a special $300,000 guaranteed Mega Perfect Game, where the winner will receive $50,000.

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

One thought on “5 Things I’m Geeking Out On Today For MLB DFS

  1. rockitsauce

    Couldn’t disagree more about Harvey. Phils ARE awful, but they CAN hit a hard throwing RHP (EVEN the Dark Knight) as evidenced by their most recent meeting when Chase took him deep. The game in Philly also hurts his cause AND (possibly most important) like Archer last nt, EVERYBODY will be on him..he’s a stud, the Phils suck, etc….I’ve seen this movie before, every NIGHT actually, what seems like the obvious play…isn’t.

    That’s DFS for ya.

    Good Luck.

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