Author Archives: Daniel Steinberg

Curveballs are underutilized early in the count

    I got the idea for this article thinking about pitching strategy. It makes sense to me that getting to two-strikes for a pitchers is an important strategy for good performance. With two strikes, pitchers can get a hitter to swing out of the zone and either make bad contact or miss completely, two […]

The issues with Expected Outcome wOBA

There is a lot of luck involved in hitting a baseball. When a player violently swings at a pitch, which sometimes travels over 100 mph, even a small change in where the bat meets the ball could be the difference between a homerun or a pop up. A ball could be hit hard in the […]

DFS NBA: With Injuries, Be Cautious With Big Men Minutes

Minutes are a huge part of Daily Fantasy NBA. When players who get a high amount of fantasy points per minute see a large expected minute increase, they tend to be awesome DFS picks. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned from my experience doing DFS NBA, it is that big men don’t always see […]

DFS NFL: Getting An Edge Week 17

Week 17 is the hardest week to play daily fantasy NFL. With teams resting starters, and with teams having nothing to play for wanting to get a look at some of their younger players, the best plays end up being a lot less straightforward than earlier in the season. This week a large part of […]

Daily Fantasy NFL: The Issues With Defense vs Position (DVP)

Note: This is an article from last year, but I think it’s an important read. If you have played DFS, you have probably seen and used DVP statistics. For those unfamiliar, DVP, or Defense vs Position, is a statistic that shows how many fantasy points teams have allowed by position in a given season. For NFL, […]

Daily Fantasy NFL: Examining Team Tendencies Week 1

Our best tool at DFW is our NFL Sportsbook Projection Tool, which uses the spread and team margin of victory history to estimate how often a team is expected to run or pass any given week. Early in the NFL season, the projection is mostly weighted towards last seasons team tendencies, simply because there isn’t enough […]

DFS NFL Research: Plays and Fantasy Points

In Week 6, 2015, there was an afternoon game between the San Diego Chargers and the Green Bay Packers. The game was a very good one, it ended with the Chargers failing to convert a 4th down pass for a TD with almost no time left that would’ve tied the game. But the most remarkable […]

The Most Important Skill For Pitchers Is Throwing Two Strikes

There’s a lot of data I look at to evaluate pitchers. Contact rates (the quality of their pitches) and how often they get swings outside of the strike zone are two of the most important factors I use to determine if a pitcher is pitching well or not. How often they throw strikes is another. […]

Dylan Bundy Is Ready To Fix The Orioles Pitching Problem

It was announced today that Orioles pitcher Dylan Bundy will start this Sunday on the road against the Rays. The move makes sense, the Orioles need good starting pitching and Bundy could become a good starter. I think Bundy will do very well as a starter, and in this article I’ll talk about why. Just a […]

DFS MLB: Using Bullpens To Pick Hitters And Pitchers

A large part of the process of picking hitters in DFS MLB is pretty simple. We pick guys going against bad pitchers and we pick guys in good hitters parks. Use this strategy, and you’ll do pretty well in cash games. But in tournaments, those hitters tend to be far too obvious of plays, and high ownership can kill your […]