Vegas Plays: Fantasy Analysis Using O/U and Vegas Spread 3/21
Tonight is a big night, especially on DraftKings.com where there’s a satellite with a whopping 100 seats guaranteed to the NBA $1,000,000 Bank Shot this Wednesday. Getting into this tournament could mean big bucks for your bankroll so you’re going to want every edge you can get tonight. In this article I take the Vegas projection of the final score of each NBA game and weigh it against a projection based on points per game and points allowed per game. This allows us to see what matchups Vegas sports bettors like that may not be that clear to fantasy guys like us.
Brooklyn +6.2 – I’m pretty shocked by this one since Rajon Rondo is surely playing but the numbers don’t lie, Vegas like Brooklyn a lot tonight. That being said, Coach Kidd likes to use his bench a lot, so it’s hard to target specific plays on the Nets tonight. Deron Williams has been hot lately and is playing at home, so he’s a decent GPP play. Mason Plumlee is also an intriguing start as the Celtics struggle rebounding. And obviously, Paul Pierce has some motivation here facing his former team. I don’t love any of these plays but they may be under the radar GPP plays tonight.
LA Lakers + 6.15 – The Wizards are coming off a B2B and will probably be without Marcin Gortat so it makes sense that Vegas is bumping the Lakers here. With Wesley Johnson out tonight, Ryan Kelly (who is bizarrely not starting but may be a good play anyway) and Kent Bazemore as well as Xavier Henry will get some extra burn tonight, they all seem like solid plays. Steve Nash being back should also help the Lakers offense here.
Phoenix +4.6 – Keep in mind this is 4.6 points over a normal projection, which means Vegas is projecting Phoenix to absolutely wreck the Pistons on the offensive end tonight. With Andre Drummond back, Miles Plumlee may be an underrated play tonight since the Suns will need his size. You also have to love Dragic and Bledsoe tonight since they’re the main offensive options on the Suns. Regardless, Detroit has been absolutely terrible defensively lately so do not fade the Suns.
Dallas +4.5 – This one makes sense as well, Denver is not very good on the road and have been inconsistent all season. The annoying part about this matchup is Denver bad against big men and Nowitzki is not really a true PF and Dallas does not give their Centers consistent minutes. I’d avoid Calderon since Ty Lawson is a good defender, but Monta Ellis may be the play here going up against Foye and Fournier who are weaker defenders.
New Orleans -3.1 – This doesn’t make a lot of sense to me because Anthony Davis seems like he’s playing, but I’m trusting Vegas here and staying away from all Pelicans tonight. It’s tempting as hell to play Anthony Davis, but if Vegas is right, a fade here could be huge for GPPs.
Here are the raw numbers:
Simple Proj Vegas Proj Diff