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Vegas Plays: Fantasy Analysis Using O/U and Spreads

I’m going to continue these articles analyzing Vegas over/unders and spreads for the foreseeable future, so look for them every day when you make your lineups. With 11 games and big money to be made tonight you’re gonna need all the edge you can find.

Largest Benefit

Toronto +5.6 – Toronto was already going to get a bump in points facing a fast paced Pistons team, but even with that Vegas still thinks they should perform 5.6 points better with that faster pace already taken into consideration. Look for Demar Derozan to have a big game against the infamously terrible Kyle Singler and Amir Johnson to have a good game inside with PatPat out.

Orlando +5.3 – Again, these projections take into account the already projected fast pace, which means Orlando has a great matchup here. Look for Vucevic and Tobias Harris to reap the benefits against a soft Denver front court.

New York +4.4 – With Rajon Rondo out this probably helps the Knicks offensively. The Knicks will be without Tyson Chandler and and Amare Stoudemire, so look for Carmelo, JR Smith, and Tim Hardaway Jr. to take on a huge scoring load tonight. While Cole Aldrich is starting, Jeremy Tyler is probably the value play here and will get good minutes.

Worst Matchups

Golden State  -1.7 – Coming off a back to back the Warriors head into LAC and are big dogs. That being said, the pace of play will be high in this game regardless so I don’t think picking a few Warriors is a bad play here. Andrew Bogut is a cheap play and has had great offensive rebounding numbers against the Clippers. Look for him to have big numbers even if he has limited minutes.

Portland -3 – On the road against the Spurs there’s not much of an argument for Portland here. The Spurs slow down the pace at home when they’re up and the only good play here, Damian Lillard, has his salary inflated from Aldridge’s absence. I’d avoid all Trailblazers tonight.

Here’s the raw data for those who are interested:

TeamOpponentPoints ProjectionVegas ProjectionDIFF
PORSAS105.0321756102-3.032175588
LACGSW105.3902909109.54.109709125
PHOCLE105.95530611093.04469385
DALUTA104.8261721103.5-1.326172134
MIABKN103.07683621051.923163767
SASPOR106.9157923109.52.58420773
GSWLAC104.2398393102.5-1.739839288
DENORL104.14729711083.852702882
SACPHI112.00989511130.990104928
DETTOR96.70507371992.294926285
PHISAC103.7137734103-0.713773409
TORDET102.3912871085.608712976
NOPMEM93.3781378793-0.378137867
NYKBOS96.54768231014.452317705
BKNMIA95.4724399960.527560101
CLEPHO98.157756671012.842243326
ORLDEN100.6544031065.345597025
BOSNYK94.54422898972.455771019
UTADAL96.7087594698.51.791240537
MEMNOP95.56807013971.431929871

View all posts by Max J Steinberg
Max J Steinberg

About the Author

Max J Steinberg Max Steinberg is a professional poker player and a top Daily Fantasy player who uses his creativity and mathematical abilities he cultivated as a poker player to win money on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He already has several big tournament scores to his name including the Victiv Bowl and countless MLB Monster wins. Follow him on twitter @maxjsteinberg.

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