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Top QB Values on DraftKings Week 11

I love all the tools we have on Daily Fantasy Winners, but I do admit that while our Pass and Run share statistics in our Sportsbook Projection Tool translate very well in some areas, they translate poorly in others. For example, while pass share is a good measure of how well a WR may do in the pass game, it doesn’t fully take into account points per reception, a huge statistic when it comes to evaluating the receiver position on DraftKings. So when evaluating WRs, matchup, targets, and pass percentage may be more important.

But when it comes to QBs, our pass share tool is basically all you need to evaluate the position (that is, if you trust the sportsbooks projections of the games). Since a QB has to be involved in every pass play, and doesn’t earn points from anything more than yards and TDs, the correlation here is almost perfect.

Since what we’re after every week is the best value, I decided to take the pass point share from each QBs team, and divide it by their salary. Then I multiplied this number by 1,000 to make it easier on the eye. I’ll refer to this number from here on out as the “Value Ratio.” Here are the results:

(Note: The average Value Ratio this week was around 2.2)

Top 3

1) Matt Stafford (5,400 Salary, 3.187 Value Ratio)

With a pass point share of 17.21 and a salary of only $5,400, this one is pretty obvious. The Lions have been a very pass heavy team all year, and the Oakland secondary has been awful all season. His value is off the charts.

2) Ryan Tannehill ($5,100 Salary, 3.05 Value Ratio)

Tannehill hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire in his last 3 games, but his price has dropped significantly and in a better than usual match-up that means great value. Keep in mind as well, his last 3 games have been on the road, he should have a much easier time at home. Dolphins coach Dan Campbell also mentioned this week that he wants Tannehill to run more, if we can get an extra 2-4 points on the ground, Tannehill becomes a very safe play this week.

3) Mark Sanchez ($5,000 Salary, 2.99 Value Ratio)

Look, Sanchez isn’t exactly a great QB, but I have my doubts that he’s worse than Sam Bradford. At min-salary in a high-powered offense, I think it makes a lot of sense to see him in the top 3 here. Tampa Bay has struggled this year against the pass.

 

Other Notables

 

Tyrod Taylor/Cam Newton/Russell Wilson

All three have a bad value ratio, but that’s because we’re only taking into account pass point share, and all three will get plenty of points running the ball. Taylor ripped apart the Pats in week 3 this year with 29 fantasy points, and while that would be a stretch this time around, I don’t think 20 is out of the question. Cam Newton is pricey, but has a fantastic match-up against the Redskins and could be in for a huge game. Don’t overlook Russell Wilson either, his 5900 price is on the low side for a QB who is capable of huge games.

 

FanDuel Only

 

Tom Brady

Brady has an awful value ratio on DraftKings, but on FanDuel his price is actually pretty solid at $9,200. We have the Pats at by far the highest pass share this week, which makes Brady the most likely to be the highest scoring QB come Sunday’s end.

Matt Ryan

Like Brady, Matt Ryan has a poor value ratio on DraftKings. But on Fanduel, he’s only $7,800, and his team has the 3rd highest pass point share of the week against Indy’s atrocious pass D. I think he’s a quality FanDuel play, but I wouldn’t touch him on DK.

View all posts by Max J Steinberg
Max J Steinberg

About the Author

Max J Steinberg Max Steinberg is a professional poker player and a top Daily Fantasy player who uses his creativity and mathematical abilities he cultivated as a poker player to win money on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He already has several big tournament scores to his name including the Victiv Bowl and countless MLB Monster wins. Follow him on twitter @maxjsteinberg.

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