The Winners Edge: Part 2 (Cin @ Ind, Det @ Dal)
If you missed part 1 of The Winners Edge, you can find it here.
Sportsbook Point Projection: 23 (Run Point Share: 11.20)
Matchup Breakdown (Indianapolis D Rankings):
DVOA: 10th against the Pass, 19th against the run.
FP Allowed vs Position: 13th vs QB, 21st vs RB, 2nd vs WR, 31st vs TE.
Specific Weaknesses: 31st against RB Receivers (DVOA), 30th against short passes (DVOA), 31st vs TEs (FP allowed).
Jermaine Gresham ($5,300 on FanDuel, $3,700 on DraftKings)
This one is simple, Indianapoils is awful against TEs by every measure. The Bengals and Gresham should take advantage, and his price is too low on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Jeremy Hill ($7,400)
I can only recommend Hill on FanDuel since he isn’t much of a receiver, but I do like him quite a bit. The Bengals run point share is 2nd to only Dallas and Hill clearly is a big part of this offense, he’s had 22 or more carries in his last 3 games.
Giovani Bernard ($6,900 on FanDuel, $5,600 on DraftKings)
Don’t forget about Gio. He may not be featured as a runner in this offense anymore, but he’s still very much involved in the receiving game. He’s caught 5+ balls and a TD in his last 2 games, and the Colts struggle against RBs in the pass game.
Sportsbook Point Projection: 26 (Pass Point Share 16.40)
Matchup Breakdown (Cincinnati D Rankings):
DVOA: 7th against the Pass, 28th against the Run.
FP Allowed vs Position: 4th vs QB, 27th vs RB, 5th vs WR.
Specific Weaknesses: 29th against RB Receivers (DVOA), 28th against the Run (DVOA).
Daniel (Boom) Herron ($5,400 on FanDuel, $4,700 on DraftKings)
I really love Herron’s value this week. He may share time with Trent Richardson, and it’s unlikely that he has a huge game, but he’s playing a defense thats poor against RBs, especially in the receiving game. Herron is used a lot catching out of the backfield, averaging over 3 receptions a game since he was inserted into the starting lineup when Ahmad Bradshaw went down. And against the Bengals strong secondary, we may see more check downs from Andrew Luck. Herron is my top play this week.
Andrew Luck ($9,700 on FanDuel, $8,800 on DraftKings)
The Bengals pass D is great, but the Colts still are projected to score a lot of points passing. I think we see Luck use his legs more than usual given that it’s a playoff game, and he’s actually quite a good runner. I love his floor in this game.
Reggie Wayne ($5,500 on FanDuel, $4,300 on DraftKings)
Wayne’s price has fallen so much, that it’s tempting to use him on both FanDuel and DraftKings to save some dough. But he’s been banged up for the entire latter half of this season and I just don’t see him producing against the Bengals stout pass D.
Sportsbook Point Projection: 20.75 (Pass Point Share: 13.49)
Matchup Breakdown (Dallas D Rankings):
DVOA: 22nd against the Pass, 23rd against the Run.
FP Allowed vs Position: 19th vs QB, 17th vs RB, 7th vs WR, 29th vs TE.
Specific Weaknesses: 29th against TEs (FP Allowed), 29th against #2 WRs (DVOA), 32nd vs Passes to left side of the field.
Golden Tate ($6,800 on FanDuel, $5,500 on DraftKings)
Tate’s price has been inflated throughout the latter half of the season due to his performances when Calvin Johnson was out. His price has finally come down enough that it’s actually pretty fair, and he has a great matchup with Dallas as there’s a huge dropoff at CB after #1 CB Brandon Carr. The Lions are 6.5 point underdogs, so there should be a lot of passing in this game.
Calvin Johnson ($9,000 on FanDuel, $8,800 on DraftKings)
I’m not licking my chops with Johnson due to Detroit’s low point projection, but he is Calvin Johnson against a mediocre defense which means he’s easily capable of going off here. He should certainly be in your gpp lineups, but Antonio Brown is a better dollar for dollar play.
Joique Bell ($6,600 on FanDuel, $5,500 on DraftKings)
I’m probably in the minority here, but I’ll be fading Bell altogether here. He shares time with both Theo Riddick and Reggie Bush and I think he doesn’t get enough touches to be worth his price, even though he’s relatively cheap. I don’t see how anyone can expect more than 13 carries and a couple catches here.
Sportsbook Point Projection: 27.25 (Run Point Share 11.92)
Matchup Breakdown (Detroit D Rankings):
DVOA: 8th against the Pass, 1st against the Run.
FP vs Position: 5th vs QB, 4th vs RB, 11th vs WR, 15th vs TE.
Specific Weaknesses: 23rd vs Receiving RBs (DVOA).
Demarco Murray ($9,000 on FanDuel, $8,800 on DraftKings)
Ok, so the matchup is pretty poor, but Las Vegas sports bettors are not pessmistic about Dallas’ offense, projecting them at a weekend high of 27.25 points. Demarco Murray is a big part of Dallas’ offense, so if they’re going to score almost 4 TDs, Murray almost certainly will be a part of it. Most people will lock in Jeremy Hill at RB, especially on FanDuel, but think about this: Murray is priced $1,600 higher than Hill, but his teams run point share is higher than Hill’s, he’s more involved in the pass game, and he’s a better player. I’ll gladly pay up for Murray here.
Dez Bryant ($9,100 on FanDuel, $8,500 on DraftKings)
Like Murray, this isn’t a great matchup for Bryant. But Dez is a special WR that can perform at a high level against tough defenses, and Vegas is optimistic about Dallas’ offense. Someone is going to score for Dallas, so it’s important to take one of their best players, especially if you choose to fade Murray.View all posts by Max J Steinberg