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Target Watch Week 16

The last week of the NFL season is approaching and it’s shaping up to be one of the strangest weeks in fantasy football. Several games will be meaningless, which means veterans may be rested and young players should get opportunities. This means this target watch article won’t be quite as relevant as it has been in previous weeks, so with that in mind, I’m keeping it short.

 

Studs

Alshon Jeffery (15 Targets) – As long as Brandon Marshall is out, Jeffery will continue to be one of only Bears players Jimmy Clausen can look to. And this couldn’t have been more true against a Lions D that’s #1 against the run according to DVOA and solid against TEs. My guess is Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte get more opportunities against a much weaker Vikings D, but Jeffery should certainly be on your GPP radar.

Randall Cobb (14 Targets) – When Cobb gets targeted, he will perform. Cobb has an insane 70% catch rate, good for top 5 in all the NFL. In week 17, the Packers are playing for the division against the Lions at home, so it’s likely Green Bay will rely heavily on Cobb and Nelson to take care of the Lions. Since I think the targets will be there, I’m happily playing Cobb next week.

Demaryius Thomas (14 Targets) – I watched this game, and I’m pretty sure 12 or 13 of Demaryius’ 14 targets were in the 2nd half alone. Thomas has been very consistent in the 2nd half of the season, and in 2nd in the NFL in targets to Antonio Brown. The Broncos are playing for home-field advantage in week 17 against the Raiders, and while I expect the Broncos to rely heavily on CJ Anderson and the run game to beat the Raiders, I think we see Thomas have a great game as well. The Raiders are 2nd to last in the NFL against #1 WRs according to DVOA.

Odell Beckham Jr. (12 Targets) – This was the week to fade ODB right? Actually, we were dead wrong. It was a bad matchup, but so was Richard Sherman at Seattle in week 10 and Beckham still caught 7 balls for 108 yards. St. Louis is a solid D, but Beckham is the type of dynamic player you have to consider week after week, otherwise you might get burned. That’s what happened this past weekend, as Beckham was by far the most productive WR with 148 yards and 2 TDs. In week 15 against the Eagles, Dez Bryant repeatedly owned cornerback Bradley Fletcher, bringing down 3 TDs when things were said and done. Guess who the Giants host at home next week? This Eagles team has nothing to play for in week 17, and Beckham should draw Fletcher for most of the game. Fading ODB in week 17 would be a huge mistake.

Eddie Royal (12 Targets) – The biggest beneficiary of Keenan Allen’s injury is clearly Royal. He played almost every snap last week against the 49ers and caught 10 balls for almost 100 yards and a TD. His salary is only $6,000 this week on Fanduel and only $5,500 on Draftkings, he will be one of the best values at WR in week 17.

Fred Jackson (12 Targets) – His continued use in the pass game makes him one of the safest RB plays every week. The Bills draw the Patriots tough secondary in week 17, but the Pats have been weak against RBs. They rank roughly in the middle of the NFL in DVOA and fantasy points allowed to RBs.

 

The Surprises

Zach Ertz (18 Targets) – Chip Kelly decided to play Ertz a lot more this week, playing over 75% of snaps and 80% of passing downs. The Redskins are also horrible against TEs, they rank in the bottom 5 in both fantasy points allowed and DVOA against TEs. This may be naive, but I’m going to assume Ertz’s snap count remains high against the Giants in week 17, and since he’s still relatively cheap on both Draftkings and FanDuel, I think he’s a possible cash game play this week.

Danny Amendola (11 Targets) – Amendola replaced injured Julian Edelman in the starting lineup, and ended up playing 36/42 passing downs. Edelman will likely be back for week 17, so don’t count on Amendola next week.

Dontrelle Inman (9 Targets) – DFW writer Nick Juskewycz predicted that the Chargers #3 WR would have a good game, he just chose the wrong one. Instead of Seyi Ajirotutu, Inman came out of nowhere and got WR 3 snaps. Playing from behind all game, the Chargers went to 3 WR sets a lot. In a game that’s likely to be closer against the Chiefs in week 17, I don’t think Inman is a reliable play at all. Stick with Royal or Floyd.

 

Duds

Jeremy Maclin (6 Targets) – Going against the Redskins, most thought Maclin was in for a big game. Instead, he only got 6 targets. But I’m chalking this up as a fluke, his snaps are still there and the Giants D isn’t that much better than the Redskins. I think he’s certainly in play for GPPs in week 17.

A.J. Green (4 Targets) – Green got injured at the beginning of this game, and played hurt the rest of the time. Unless I get very positive news about his health, he may be off my radar in week 17, even against the Steelers poor secondary.

Donte Moncrief (3 Targets) – I late swapped Moncrief into several of my DraftKings lineups after T.Y. Hilton was confirmed out. It backfired hard as the entire Colts offense was awful including Moncrief. I assume T.Y. Hilton will be back next week, but I actually think Moncrief is still a sleeper GPP option because of his big play ability. Having locked up the division, young Moncrief’s playing time may see a boost.

View all posts by Max J Steinberg
Max J Steinberg

About the Author

Max J Steinberg Max Steinberg is a professional poker player and a top Daily Fantasy player who uses his creativity and mathematical abilities he cultivated as a poker player to win money on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He already has several big tournament scores to his name including the Victiv Bowl and countless MLB Monster wins. Follow him on twitter @maxjsteinberg.

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