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Target Watch Week 12

Target Watch is back! Targets are a great stat to look at every week because they help you see whether a player’s performance was based mostly on luck or skill. After looking back at the most targeted players of week 12, I’ll make some predictions about what these numbers may mean for week 13.

 

Watch Max on Youtube talk about some of his favorite plays in week 13 based on week 12 targets below. 

 

Studs

Odell Beckham Jr. (18 Targets) – OBJ soaked up 18/51 throws from Eli Manning, and was one of the top WRs in week 12. This isn’t terribly surprising, he had a great match-up and is one of the top receivers in the NFL. Let’s move along.

Jarvis Landry (16 Targets) – Ryan Tannehill threw an insane 58 times in this game, so this isn’t as great as it looks. I don’t think this happens again this season, but Landry is Tannehill’s favorite target, and Landry gets a great match-up in Week 13 against the Ravens. That being said, I really don’t think he’s undervalued on DraftKings or FanDuel, but he’s always in play in GPPs.

Larry Fitzgerald (14 Targets) – Only 40 throws for Carson Palmer here, this is an impressive number of targets for Fitzgerald. I usually don’t do this, but I’m going to put my own spin on this performance based on watching this game. Fitzgerald is in his 30s and I think he’s been slowing down late in the season, I just don’t see him getting the separation we’re used to. I’d sit him next week against a tough Rams secondary.

Calvin Johnson (14 Targets) – Johnson’s performance may say more about the Eagles defense than Johnson, but it’s nice to see him get targeted so often and get into the end zone 3 times. I think he has a solid game against the Packers.

 

Surprises

Travis Benjamin (13 Targets) – Benjamin’s performance this week was great on paper, but the Browns threw the ball 48 times, and the Ravens secondary is terrible. I feel both his targets and performance were certainly inflated. Benjamin draws a tough Bengals secondary in week 13 and I think he’s a GPP flier at best.

Markus Wheaton (13 Targets) – Wheaton was probably the last Steelers WR we expected to have an insane 9 catch, 201 yard game, but this did indeed happen. Opposing defenses focus on both Steeler’s stud WRs Bryant and Brown may actually give Wheaton some opportunities in the future. Look, I don’t love Wheaton going forward, but I think he actually may be in play in GPPs this week against a soft Colts secondary at only $3,600 on DraftKings.

T.Y. Hilton (12 Targets) – Hilton has been inconsistent as hell this season, but I think he’s always in play in GPPs because of his big play ability.  This performance also says something about Tampa Bay, they seem to be awful against #1 WRs.

Jeremy Maclin (11 Targets) – Maclin had a tough stretch the past 3 weeks, but if you look closer, they all came in tough match-up and they all were in games where KC won big. When Alex Smith is forced to throw, he goes to Maclin quite a bit. This was Maclin’s 3rd game this year topping 28 fantasy points, and he’s only $5,200 going against a really weak Oakland secondary. He’s definitely a great value at WR in week 13.

Brandon Marshall (11 Targets) – Marshall had a huge 37.1 fantasy point game this week, catching 9 of his 11 targets for 131 yards and 2 TDs. What gives? It’s possible that Marshall will do better in match-ups against short CBs like Brent Grimes. It’s also possible that Marshall is just very good and is just capable of these games. The Giants have been horrible against WR this season, so I like Marshall quite a bit this week.

 

Question Marks

Demaryius Thomas (13 Targets, 1 Reception) – This is a perfect example of why I love looking at targets. At face value, Thomas had an awful game and has horrible chemistry with Brock Osweiller. But he’s still the most targeted receiver on the Broncos, so he’s certainly not someone we want to avoid. He’s someone you should play in GPPs this week.

Martavis Bryant (13 Targets, 5 Receptions) – It’s not like Bryant had a poor game, he did get in the End zone with a rushing TD, but with Markus Wheaton having such a good game maybe you’re wondering whether Bryant is over-hyped. I’m perfectly happy with this game from him and still love him moving forward, especially against the Colts in week 13. He’s still only $5,600 on DraftKings.

Davante Adams (11 Targets, 2 Receptions) – Adams looked absolutely awful against the Bears on Thanksgiving, and while the targets are encouraging, he does seem to have a bad issue with drops and I’m worried his playing time is going to start to fall big time. I’d avoid him against the Lions.

 

RB/TE Notables

Scott Chandler (11 Targets) – Well this is interesting. Chandler was mostly a goal line package player, but actually got quite a bit of action even with Gronk playing most of the game. With Gronk out, he seems like a very good play and maybe the top value of the week at only $2,500 on DraftKings.

Gary Barnidge (11 Targets) – This guy is a stud and should be in some of your GPP every week.

Julius Thomas (10 Targets) – Thomas now has 23 Targets in his last 3 games, I think he’s finally getting fully integrated into this offense. The Jags week 13 opponent, the Titans, are rated very poorly against the TE according to Football Outsiders DVOA.

Kyle Rudolph (10 Targets) – Another solid game from Rudolph, and he actually has a sneaky good match-up in week 13. The Seahawks have been bad against the TE this season.

Mark Ingram (8 Targets) – Ingram didn’t have a standout game, but he’s more involved in the pass game than you might think. I think he’s an interesting GPP play on DraftKings this week against Carolina.

 

Questions? Tweet me @maxjsteinberg on twitter to continue this Daily Fantasy Football conversation.

View all posts by Max J Steinberg
Max J Steinberg

About the Author

Max J Steinberg Max Steinberg is a professional poker player and a top Daily Fantasy player who uses his creativity and mathematical abilities he cultivated as a poker player to win money on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He already has several big tournament scores to his name including the Victiv Bowl and countless MLB Monster wins. Follow him on twitter @maxjsteinberg.

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