Why You Shouldn’t Pair a QB and DST Together in the Millionaire Maker
When you’re making daily fantasy football lineups for the Millionaire Maker, you’re going to want to use a ton of diversity. But there’s one thing you want to avoid, and that’s not pairing a QB and DST together. Some people believe this is a good idea since that if a team is going to score a ton of points, the defense doesn’t have to be on the field as long. While that’s true, there’s a mistake being made.
The logic is quite simple. If the team your QB is on is throwing a lot, the game is likely competitive, or the team the QB is on is playing from behind. This isn’t always the case and it depends on the team somewhat, but it’s a general and important concept.
One counter argument to this would be the San Diego Chargers this weekend. San Diego is -7 at home against the NY Jets. San Diego’s defense is fairly cheap, and since Geno Smith is struggling, this appears to be a great play for the Millionaire Maker. Furthermore, the Jets have a solid rush defense, but they have a fairly weak pass defense. Since the Chargers are more built to throw the ball, especially without Ryan Mathews, there’s the thought that both of these should work.
Here’s why that’s not true. Go back to Week 3 against the Buffalo Bills. Just like the Jets, the Bills are better at stopping the run than the pass. The Chargers took a 20-3 lead midway through the third quarter.
Instead of using their strength which is throwing the ball, they continued to pound the rock with Donald Brown, even though he couldn’t do much of anything. Brown had 32 touches for 64 yards, and Rivers was an efficient 18-of-25 for 256 yards and two TDs. The Bills offense didn’t do much, and E.J. Manuel with that offense simply hasn’t been able to stretch the field. By evaluating what was happening in the game, the Chargers were much more interested in shortening the game to get the win.
To be clear, it’s not like combining the two positions never work, and you want variety in the Millionaire Maker. Plus, for the Chargers-Jets game, Geno Smith could throw a pick-six, and this specific play could work out.
But if you’re banking on a pick-six and four forced turnovers for a combo play to work, that’s a terrible play. If a game is going to be 24-0, expecting the QB to throw all three of those TDs while throwing for over 300 yards is incredibly small. Therefore, while it’s not required by any means, if you want to combine a DST with a position because you have strong belief a blowout is coming combined with projections, it’s running back. Here is a list of the 20-plus point blowouts through four weeks:
Seattle 36, Green Bay 16
Minnesota 34, St. Louis 6
Detroit 35, NY Giants 14
Baltimore 26, Pittsburgh 6
Washington 41, Jacksonville 10
New England 30, Minnesota 7
Atlanta 56, Tampa Bay 14
Cincinnati 33, Tennessee 7
Indianapolis 44, Jacksonville 17 (Luck, 32.3 FPTS)
Kansas City 34, Miami 15
NY Giants 45, Washington 14 (Manning, 33.1 FPTS)
Indianapolis 41, Tennessee 17 (Luck, 30.62 FPTS)
Miami 38, Oakland 14
Kansas City 41, New England 14
So, 14 out of the 61 games have been dominated by one side. Plus, most of these winning teams involved run-oriented squads with good defense. The three games highlighted in bold are the ones with QB numbers that would be considered really good in GPP play, especially for the Millionaire Maker. Matt Ryan didn’t even throw for 300 yards in Atlanta’s blowout vs. Tampa Bay. Again, that bonus is crucial for the Millionaire Maker, and a blowout like that is very rare anyways.
Even when it isn’t a blowout, is it possible for the two to work out? Sure, it is, but unlikely. Here are some examples from the best DST performances this year that involve a few different winning teams.
Week 1 – San Francisco 28 Dallas 17 – San Francisco DST 20 FPTS, Colin Kaepernick 17.14 FPTS
Week 1 – Houston 17, Washington 6 – Houston DST 24 FPTS, Ryan Fitzpatrick 13.24 FPTS
Week 2 – Buffalo 22, Miami 10 – Buffalo 21 FPTS, E.J. Manuel 12.68 FPTS
Week 3 – Detroit 17, Green Bay 9 – Detroit DST 17 FPTS, Matthew Stafford 6.64 FPTS
Week 4 – Philadelphia 21, San Francisco 26 – Philadelphia DST 26 FPTS, Nick Foles 5.9 FPTS
That last example brings me to my final point. Defensive and special teams TDs take away time of possession for the offense. Take a look at the score of the Eagles-49ers game. All three of those Eagles TDs came on defense or special teams. Granted the Eagles could have put up some points had a couple of things gone their way, but they had the ball for 17:43. Also, it’s not like Foles was anywhere close to having a great game even if he had thrown a couple TDs. The offense had limited opportunities. Maximizing yourself for the most points in the Millionaire Maker means maximizing your opportunities.View all posts by Nick Juskewycz