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PGA Daily Fantasy: 2015 Humana Challenge Picks on DraftKings

Through the first two tournaments of January, 11 of our 12 picks have made the cut, four have finished in the top 10, three have finished in the top three and one of those was a winner (Patrick Reed at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions).

Given our hot start, we are going to give you two lineups we are using for PGA daily fantasy this weekend. There will certainly be some overlap, and we will use a few different lineups for GPPs. But we want to give you a little variety on some good picks for this weekend. One of the lineups will be mine, and the other belongs to my colleague Danny.

Once again, we are going to use inverse odds and odds per dollar to determine the best value plays for the Humana Challenge. Although, there are five guys that have the best value this week and most of them are on the cheaper end. If you were to field all five guys in the same lineup, you would have $17,600 for your final spot, which is obviously too much cash. Therefore, you should only be fielding four of them (maybe three), and find a couple of your favorite plays while still having the best odds.

 

But before we get started on all this, here is what you need to know specifically about the Humana Challenge:

The cut is after three days, not two – This is an important detail. Why? Because all golfers are guaranteed three rounds unless they WD or are a DQ. You don’t have to worry about your guys missing the cut as much (although it’s still important). So, you can comfortably go with a more high-low strategy. So, why is the cut after three days?

The tournament is spread out over three courses on the first three days – After everyone plays at PGA West (Palmer), PGA West (Nicklaus) and La Quinta CC, the cut happens and the people who make it return to PGA West (Palmer) for the final round. This is also a Pro-Am, just like the AT&T at Pebble Beach, which also has a cut after the first three days. But, there is something that won’t change regardless which course you play at.

There will be A TON of eagles and low scores – Unfortunately, I can’t find the stats from one of the courses at last year’s tournament, so I have to go back to 2013 for the numbers, which is okay since the courses are still the same and it’s a similar type of field. How many eagles were made at the three courses over the four days? 111. Yes, that’s right 111 eagles were made over the four days. The worst total score to win this tournament since 2008 is -24. The best is -33. How long are these courses? PGA West (Palmer) is 6,950 yards, PGA West (Nicklaus) is 6,924 and La Quinta CC is 7,060. Plus, all three courses are par 72s with four par 5s on each course, which is essentially a joke for professionals. So yes, length is a nice bonus, but it is definitely not a necessity for eagles. We are best off sticking with the odds and filling in with salary as necessary.

 

Best picks with odds (salaries via DraftKings)

Webb Simpson $9,700

Justin Thomas $7,900

Daniel Summerhays $7,100

Troy Merrit $4,700

Cameron Percy $3,000

Again, there is $17,600 remaining, so even if you took defending champion Patrick Reed to round this out, his salary is $16,000 and you have way too much on the table. There some other guys we can use who have great odds as well, are high up on the eagles (holes per) list and playing great golf as of late (being recency biased is somewhat okay in golf as long as the odds and other factors support it). Again, we can also use a little more of a high-low strategy given the cut is after three rounds.

 

Now I’ll give you my lineup along with Danny’s.

Nick’s Lineup

Patrick Reed $16,000

Ryan Palmer $11,800

Justin Thomas $7,900

Daniel Summerhays $7,100

Charlie Beljan $3,800

Cameron Percy $3,000

$400 remaining

 

Danny’s Lineup

Matt Kuchar $13,800

Harris English $10,900

Webb Simpson $9,700

Justin Thomas $7,900

Troy Merrit $4,700

Cameron Percy $3,000

$0 remaining

View all posts by Nick Juskewycz
Nick Juskewycz

About the Author

Sked Nick is a Daily Fantasy Sports enthusiast and a former Bleacher Report Featured Columnist. Most of his time is dedicated to the sports world in front of several televisions, monitors and a projector. This involves researching, writing, watching games or simply keeping up to date on news.He graduated with honors from Bowling Green State University with a degree in sport management and journalism. Furthermore, Nick was a radio play-by-play and color commentator for Bowling Green football, men's basketball, women's basketball and baseball. He also has experience working with the BGSU athletic department.Follow @NickJuskewycz

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